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Snow potential Thursday night and Saturday 1/19 to 1/21


Mikehobbyst

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i stand corrected reading through my obs...it was a transition event...my mistake...must have mixed it up with the other 500 events...it might have been that on one of the other loops it was snow here and rain south shore???

Too many storms where the immediate south shore has been shafted lol I would need more info.

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That one had like 2 inches of rain before it went to snow in a west to east fashion...it went to snow in Queens around noon...Nassau in the afternoon early evening...and where I am at...near midnight...still picked up nearly 11 inches out here as the snow came down *very* hard overnight

...this was where the surface low went eastward south of Long Island...reached Montauk...and then started heading back west through Long Island Sound towards the Westchester coast...the winds on LI were now westerly with the low to the north and cold enought for snow...but in southern CT. with the low moving through the Sound...the winds remained easterly and warm enough for rain...especially east of say Bridgeport.

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One of my favorite drives was during PD2. I got off the Port Jeff Ferry and it was just overcast early in the evening.

Still no flakes by the time that I arrived in Holbrook. But encountered heavy snow approaching the Nassau Co line

and had around 5 inches on the ground in Long Beach.

The main thing I recall was the snow took all day to get here...but arrived right at 8:00 PM when the penultimate episode of the HBO series Oz began...(prison drama / nothing to do with the "Wizard" one)

An excellent storm, btw...before a flake flew there was 5 inches on the ground from previous events that month...

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...this was where the surface low went eastward south of Long Island...reached Montauk...and then started heading back west through Long Island Sound towards the Westchester coast...the winds on LI were now westerly with the low to the north and cold enought for snow...but in southern CT. with the low moving through the Sound...the winds remained easterly and warm enough for rain...especially east of say Bridgeport.

i remember that. We were snowing and it was still raining to our north.

Reading the old boards makes me depressed. We have been very lucky past few years. Some of these storms have been epic.

I guess we just wait and see what february brings.

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The biggest gradients I recall over LI occurred on the 1/7/94 ice storm and the north shore/NYC ice storm in January 1999. The first storm parts of the north fork saw mostly snow that Friday afternoon while the majority of the rest of LI was sleet or freezing rain. The January 1999 storm, northern nassau/Queens/NYC were annihilated with FZRA from around 4am-11am while the south shore was all rain, I believe LGA/NYC were 27-28 the entire event while JFK was already 36 by 3am. There was significant damage in places like Glen Cove and Port Washington.

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The biggest gradients I recall over LI occurred on the 1/7/94 ice storm and the north shore/NYC ice storm in January 1999. The first storm parts of the north fork saw mostly snow that Friday afternoon while the majority of the rest of LI was sleet or freezing rain. The January 1999 storm, northern nassau/Queens/NYC were annihilated with FZRA from around 4am-11am while the south shore was all rain, I believe LGA/NYC were 27-28 the entire event while JFK was already 36 by 3am. There was significant damage in places like Glen Cove and Port Washington.

One of the noteworthy ones I recall was 2/5/2001...went to snow in Port Jeff around 4:00 PM and came down hard for at least 8 hours...measured 7.6 inches...down towards Patchouge the colder air took longer to work in...it did go over to snow eventually but temps were around 33...they saw closer to 2 inches...across the Sound Bridgeport had 11"...and Danbury 19".

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That one had like 2 inches of rain before it went to snow in a west to east fashion...it went to snow in Queens around noon...Nassau in the afternoon early evening...and where I am at...near midnight...still picked up nearly 11 inches out here as the snow came down *very* hard overnight

Western Queens was snow from the beginning and never changed to rain.

The rain/snow line set up from LGA east and crashed east after 11am.

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One of the noteworthy ones I recall was 2/5/2001...went to snow in Port Jeff around 4:00 PM and came down hard for at least 8 hours...measured 7.6 inches...down towards Patchouge the colder air took longer to work in...it did go over to snow eventually but temps were around 33...they saw closer to 2 inches...across the Sound Bridgeport had 11"...and Danbury 19".

That was an awesome storm here. Didn't 1/3/06 have a pretty sharp gradient as well?

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That was an awesome storm here. Didn't 1/3/06 have a pretty sharp gradient as well?

So sharp it didn't even snow on LI...

NOUS41 KOKX 041548 CCA

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-042001-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY

1048 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2006

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR

THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED

TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR

THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT

WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

RAINFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...

WEST HAVEN 1.48 641 PM 1/3

MILFORD 1.42 654 PM 1/3

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...

OLD LYME 1.47 330 PM 1/3

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...

RIDGEWOOD 1.80 400 PM 1/3

OAKLAND 1.45 625 PM 1/3

BERGENFIELD 0.84 715 PM 1/3

...PASSAIC COUNTY...

HAWTHORNE 1.41 1250 PM 1/3

NEW YORK

...KINGS COUNTY...

SHEEPSHEAD BAY 2.10 300 PM 1/3

BROOKLYN 1.68 700 PM 1/3

...NASSAU COUNTY...

PLAINVIEW 2.00 420 PM 1/3

LYNBROOK 1.95 445 PM 1/3

WANTAGH 1.55 648 PM 1/3

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

SAINT JAMES 1.04 1255 PM 1/3

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

DANBURY 7.0 400 PM 1/3 CT DOT

BETHEL 6.0 415 PM 1/3

BROOKFIELD 5.0 415 PM 1/3

BRIDGEPORT 2.0 530 PM 1/3

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

MIDDLETOWN 6.0 700 PM 1/3

HADDAM 3.0 400 PM 1/3 CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...

WOLCOTT(1) 15.0 415 PM 1/3

WOLCOTT(2) 11.5 415 PM 1/3

WATERBURY(1) 11.0 415 PM 1/3

WATERBURY(2) 9.0 415 PM 1/3

MERIDEN 7.0 400 PM 1/3 CT DOT

SOUTHBURY 6.0 400 PM 1/3 CT DOT

WALLINGFORD 6.0 415 PM 1/3

BEACON FALLS 5.0 415 PM 1/3

WATERBURY 5.0 400 PM 1/3 CT DOT

OXFORD 4.0 415 PM 1/3

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...

COLCHESTER 3.5 400 PM 1/3 CT DOT

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...

OAKLAND 2.5 625 PM 1/3

RAMSEY 2.0 100 PM 1/3 SKYWARN COORDINATOR

RIDGEWOOD 1.8 400 PM 1/3 SKYWARN COORDINATOR

BERGENFIELD 0.4 715 PM 1/3

...ESSEX COUNTY...

NORTH CALDWELL 1.8 600 PM 1/3 COUNTY COORDINATOR

...PASSAIC COUNTY...

RINGWOOD 1.8 500 PM 1/3

WEST PATERSON 0.5 1100 AM 1/3

HAWTHORNE 0.1 1250 PM 1/3

NEW YORK

...ORANGE COUNTY...

MOUNT HOPE 12.8 600 PM 1/3

CHESTER 11.3 730 PM 1/3

CAMPBELL HALL 8.5 330 PM 1/3

GOSHEN 8.0 645 PM 1/3

HAMPTONBURGH 8.0 200 PM 1/3

HARRIMAN 7.5 305 PM 1/3

CORNWALL-ON-HUDSON 7.0 800 PM 1/3

NEW WINDSOR 6.0 240 PM 1/3

TUXEDO 4.0 400 PM 1/3

WESTTOWN 4.0 1200 PM 1/3

...PUTNAM COUNTY...

FAHNESTOCK STATE PARK 10.0 700 PM 1/3

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

ARMONK 3.0 515 PM 1/3

YONKERS 2.5 310 PM 1/3

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Western Queens was snow from the beginning and never changed to rain.

The rain/snow line set up from LGA east and crashed east after 11am.

Sorry 'bout that...

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The biggest gradients I recall over LI occurred on the 1/7/94 ice storm and the north shore/NYC ice storm in January 1999. The first storm parts of the north fork saw mostly snow that Friday afternoon while the majority of the rest of LI was sleet or freezing rain. The January 1999 storm, northern nassau/Queens/NYC were annihilated with FZRA from around 4am-11am while the south shore was all rain, I believe LGA/NYC were 27-28 the entire event while JFK was already 36 by 3am. There was significant damage in places like Glen Cove and Port Washington.

There were *a lot* of 2" S. shore / 6" N. Shore events in the 1980's...at least in Nassau...living in Plainview...I generally ended up with 4...the one on 2/6/1983 comes to mind immediately...5 days prior to the Blizzard...

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Sorry 'bout that...

I moved to Astoria in December of 2009, western Queens.

I work in NE Queens, Bayside.

Started snowing at 6:30am or so in Astoria and accumulated throughout the day. Drove to work, only 9 miles east, to Bayside, and it was rain until around 11am.

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NAM snowfall algorithm from Ewall was generally 2-4" west of the city and coast from the clipper. Seems to be picking up on the warmer surface temperatures near the coast very well. Nice solution.

you need to define coast when you say coast. I live on the coast of CT, and i get 2-4 on that.

I think you mean coastal NJ, south shore LI, southern brooklyn, staten island, correct?

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I moved to Long Island 41 years ago and have never been to Long Beach...or Riverhead.

I remember you saying this once before...still find it shocking!

People on my job always tell me to go...say there is some type of "mall" out there...I always say, "what the hell am I going to do at a mall?"

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Interesting how of all of the 11 GEFS members including the operational 18z GFS, the OP run was the only one to not show snow for NYC with the clipper... some of these members are probably too wet, NYC isn't going to see much more than 0.1" QPF if even that, although it does seem likely that NYC sees at least some snow showers on Thursday night, maybe 1/2 to 1+ inch if the wetter scenario supported by the NAM/CMC verify.

post-1753-0-84014100-1326848706.gif

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you need to define coast when you say coast. I

T...you should have listened to NOAA radio in the 70's out of Rockefeller Center...other than Sussex, Warren, Morris, (which were under NWS NYC authority back then)...W Passaic, N Westchester and Rockland Counties...they considered everyone else "the coast"...<Orange and Putnam were not in the CWA then>

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T...you should have listened to NOAA radio in the 70's out of Rockefeller Center...other than Sussex, Warren, Morris, (which were under NWS NYC authority back then)...W Passaic, N Westchester and Rockland Counties...they considered everyone else "the coast"...<Orange and Putnam were not in the CWA then>

it wasn't much different in the 80s, i remember it, although i was inland, which was nice, but yeah, that's how it was.

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it wasn't much different in the 80s, i remember it, although i was inland, which was nice, but yeah, that's how it was.

I will never forget the marvelously delicate care both Warren and Sussex Counties were given...if one snowflake descended on High Point State Park...all sorts of Special Weather Statements were issued...and this is no exaggeration..

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I think of those areas as the shoreline....coast more along the lines of coastal plain

The state climatologist for NY puts the 5 boroughs, Nassau, Suffolk, and southern Westchester (on a line south of from Dobbs Ferry to the point where CT has its westernmost extension) in the "coastal" climate zone while N. Westchester, Rockland...and most counties along the river up to Albany in the "Hudson Valley" zone....in CT...most of the state is in the interior zone save for the south strip along the Sound...and up to around 6 or 7 miles in...about as far as the Merrit Parkway....from Cos Cob to New London.

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how did u do in the snowicane? i remember waiting for those dark yellow bands coming ashore, awaiting the south shore reports on the precip type, i remember when the red echoes came ashore from the south and it poured snow. That was some heavy freakin snow too. That was definitely one of my favorites!

Ughh the snowicane. My fav :)

...ORANGE COUNTY...

HIGHLAND MILLS 34.0 915 AM 2/27 PUBLIC

HARRIMAN 33.0 800 AM 2/27 PUBLIC

MONROE 32.0 530 PM 2/26 PUBLIC

GOSHEN 29.4 600 PM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

TUXEDO 29.0 845 PM 2/26 PUBLIC

MIDDLETOWN 28.0 615 PM 2/26 PUBLIC

MOUNT HOPE 27.5 130 PM 2/26 COCORAHS

CUDDEBACKVILLE 27.0 719 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WASHINGTONVILLE 25.5 700 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WARWICK 25.0 726 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

CORNWALL-ON-HUDSON 24.0 625 AM 2/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER

FLORIDA 23.0 300 PM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GREENVILLE 22.5 600 PM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

VAILS GATE 22.5 1030 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WALDEN 22.0 850 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

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Ughh the snowicane. My fav :)

...ORANGE COUNTY...

HIGHLAND MILLS 34.0 915 AM 2/27 PUBLIC

HARRIMAN 33.0 800 AM 2/27 PUBLIC

MONROE 32.0 530 PM 2/26 PUBLIC

GOSHEN 29.4 600 PM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

TUXEDO 29.0 845 PM 2/26 PUBLIC

MIDDLETOWN 28.0 615 PM 2/26 PUBLIC

MOUNT HOPE 27.5 130 PM 2/26 COCORAHS

CUDDEBACKVILLE 27.0 719 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WASHINGTONVILLE 25.5 700 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WARWICK 25.0 726 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

CORNWALL-ON-HUDSON 24.0 625 AM 2/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER

FLORIDA 23.0 300 PM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GREENVILLE 22.5 600 PM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

VAILS GATE 22.5 1030 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WALDEN 22.0 850 AM 2/26 SKYWARN SPOTTER

You know we all abhor false modesty....

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