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Snow potential Thursday night and Saturday 1/19 to 1/21


Mikehobbyst

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im pretty sure there were reports out of long beach of mainly rain, no?

yeah i was reporting it, But there were flakes at the beginning and then a period of sleet from about 1130 to 1am. So not all rain.

The fact that it sleeted that late into the event is testimate to just how cold the 925s were as it was in the upper 30s at the ground with the strong onshore flow.

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yeah i was reporting it, But there were flakes at the beginning and then a period of sleet from about 1130 to 1am. So not all rain.

The fact that it sleeted that late into the event is testimate to just how cold the 925s were as it was in the upper 30s at the ground with the strong onshore flow.

Right...but...when it snowed for 3 hours last night by me and coated the ground, it was raining in long beach. Agreed?

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Wow... can't possibly get any more dissapointing than this on the GFS:

post-1753-0-91625300-1326838317.gif

I don't have much hope for both systems. The Thursday storm appears to spare NYC of most of its QPF while Long Island, CT and New York see more precipitation, although some snow showers will probably fall here IMO. The Saturday snow potential is pretty much supported mostly by the ECM which has been variable and has shown medium range snowstorms several times this winter, and with not much to keep this much further south, I'm leaning with the northern models, expecting mostly rain out of that one.

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Wow... can't possibly get any more dissapointing than this on the GFS:

post-1753-0-91625300-1326838317.gif

I don't have much hope for both systems. The Thursday storm appears to spare NYC of most of its QPF while Long Island, CT and New York see more precipitation, although some snow showers will probably fall here IMO. The Saturday snow potential is pretty much supported mostly by the ECM which has been variable and has shown medium range snowstorms several times this winter, and with not much to keep this much further south, I'm leaning with the northern models, expecting mostly rain out of that one.

The clipper was never shown to be a lot, but it still does show a bit of snow for NYC. I still trust the Eiuro in this range, though every time the less snowy model has won out - doesn't matter which one. So cautiously optimistic.

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We had some sleet to start it off but otherwise rain. We torched to over 40F when the sleet/rain started. The south wind roared all afternoon and night.

At the end of the day, you live in freakin long beach. All summer its amazing. When i go there i cant find parking and the cops are a b**ch.

You can walk to the beach and to town every night. Id trade where i am to live in long beach any day!

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At the end of the day, you live in freakin long beach. All summer its amazing. When i go there i cant find parking and the cops are a b**ch.

You can walk to the beach and to town every night. Id trade where i am to live in long beach any day!

Long Beach is great in the summer, no doubt about it. The crowds get crazy though. Irene was a pretty cool event last year.

Last winter here, we had just about as much snow as anyone in total, around 60", but the coastal front came through in some marginal events for the rest of you guys and screwed us over. One time we warmed up over 40 in light drizzle/rain and lost literally 8" if not more snow cover. The rest of you guys held at 33 or 34. You could see a dramatic difference at times between us and even as close as Hempstead Turnpike.

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Agreed near the coast. But I think this is a surprisingly fair depiction of what the Euro was indicating away from the immediate shore. Usually these winderground maps are tremendously overdone. But 1-3" is pretty fair from what I was looking at on stormvista. Near the shore and city it would be harder to accumulate.

Yeah, I would rather be north or west with this type of a set up.

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Long Beach is great in the summer, no doubt about it. The crowds get crazy though. Irene was a pretty cool event last year.

Last winter here, we had just about as much snow as anyone in total, around 60", but the coastal front came through in some marginal events for the rest of you guys and screwed us over. One time we warmed up over 40 in light drizzle/rain and lost literally 8" if not more snow cover. The rest of you guys held at 33 or 34. You could see a dramatic difference at times between us and even as close as Hempstead Turnpike.

With zero elevation its tough to hold off the warm flow...maybe only when SST around 36-37 and a snowpack you guys are ok, i think at hempstead tpke elevation increase to around 25-30 feet, whcih may even be enough to get above the creeping warmth...

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With zero elevation its tough to hold off the warm flow...maybe only when SST around 36-37 and a snowpack you guys are ok, i think at hempstead tpke elevation increase to around 25-30 feet, whcih may even be enough to get above the creeping warmth...

Many winter drives have started out with rain here and a transition to snow between Sunrise and the Southern State

with an inch or more by Hempstead Turnpike-Old Country Road.

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Id trade where i am to live in long beach any day!

I moved to Long Island 41 years ago and have never been to Long Beach...or Riverhead.

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Many winter drives have started out with rain here and a transition to snow between Sunrise and the Southern State

with an inch or more by Hempstead Turnpike-Old Country Road.

I lived in Plainview just north of Old Counrty Road for 23 years (elevation 160 feet) ...and my general recollection was that in marginal situations...it tended to be just warm enough for rain with astonishing frequency. I would often drive up Route 106 or 107 towards Brookville, East Norwich or even Syosset...and snowfall was invariably a good bit more significant oh say 4 to 5 miles north of my mailing address. Most of that area is over the 200 foot contour and 15 to 20 miles north of the ocean...often times was just good enough to put down some decent snows. The rural nature of the region...generally 4 acre zoning...helped too.

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I lived in Plainview just north of Old Counrty Road for 23 years (elevation 160 feet) ...and my general recollection was that in marginal situations...it tended to be just warm enough for rain with astonishing frequency. I would often drive up Route 106 or 107 towards Brookville, East Norwich or even Syosset...and snowfall was invariably a good bit more significant oh say 4 to 5 miles north of my mailing address. Most of that area is over the 200 foot contour and 15 to 20 miles north of the ocean...often times was just good enough to put down some decent snows. The rural nature of the region...generally 4 acre zoning...helped too.

Yea living just north of old country road in melville, in some marginal situations, like the snowicane, we stayed all snow, with lots of it. in others, between old country road and jericho turnpike, about 2 miles apart, there was a big difference. That little area right there by the walt whitman mall was often a dividing line...

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I lived in Plainview just north of Old Counrty Road for 23 years (elevation 160 feet) ...and my general recollection was that in marginal situations...it tended to be just warm enough for rain with astonishing frequency. I would often drive up Route 106 or 107 towards Brookville, East Norwich or even Syosset...and snowfall was invariably a good bit more significant oh say 4 to 5 miles north of my mailing address. Most of that area is over the 200 foot contour and 15 to 20 miles north of the ocean...often times was just good enough to put down some decent snows. The rural nature of the region...generally 4 acre zoning...helped too.

Valentine's Day 2007 was rather unique here. We had an impressive short duration ice storm on the barrier islands

while areas just to our north stayed mostly sleet.

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Valentine's Day 2007 was rather unique here. We had an impressive short duration ice storm on the barrier islands

while areas just to our north stayed mostly sleet.

how did u do in the snowicane? i remember waiting for those dark yellow bands coming ashore, awaiting the south shore reports on the precip type, i remember when the red echoes came ashore from the south and it poured snow. That was some heavy freakin snow too. That was definitely one of my favorites!

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I lived in Plainview just north of Old Counrty Road for 23 years (elevation 160 feet) ...and my general recollection was that in marginal situations...it tended to be just warm enough for rain with astonishing frequency. I would often drive up Route 106 or 107 towards Brookville, East Norwich or even Syosset...and snowfall was invariably a good bit more significant oh say 4 to 5 miles north of my mailing address. Most of that area is over the 200 foot contour and 15 to 20 miles north of the ocean...often times was just good enough to put down some decent snows. The rural nature of the region...generally 4 acre zoning...helped too.

In fairness...I can never rememeber "driving down" say the Seaford Oyster Bay Expressway when Plainview just eeked out a snowstorm to see if say Massapequa got mostly rain...so my memory...plus a few other things...might be slightly skewed. Also, as a person afflicted by cynicism (and this hobby played no small role in cultivating that characteristic) I tend to recall the near misses more than the near hits...though Carlin would likely argue there is no difference between the two...

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Yea living just north of old country road in melville, in some marginal situations, like the snowicane, we stayed all snow, with lots of it. in others, between old country road and jericho turnpike, about 2 miles apart, there was a big difference. That little area right there by the walt whitman mall was often a dividing line...

All snow during the snowicane? Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm?

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All snow during the snowicane? Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm?

The snowicane is the storm that like circled around right? It went up the coast, did a loop back and then out...no? We did stay all snow for that one...

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how did u do in the snowicane? i remember waiting for those dark yellow bands coming ashore, awaiting the south shore reports on the precip type, i remember when the red echoes came ashore from the south and it poured snow. That was some heavy freakin snow too. That was definitely one of my favorites!

The crazy thing about that storm is that I was sick in bed for a couple of days and really missed the best of the action.

I hate when that happens... :fever:

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The crazy thing about that storm is that I was sick in bed for a couple of days and really missed the best of the action.

I hate when that happens... :fever:

ouch. i think i remember ALEX getting snow in woodmere, and it was sleet/rain mix in long beach for a while...

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The snowicane is the storm that like circled around right? It went up the coast, did a loop back and then out...no? We did stay all snow for that one...

There's no way you were snow. The rain snow line ran through central Queens in a north south fashion. I know it did for a fact; I drove through the line to go to a home depot. It was raining at my house and snowing 3 miles west at the home depot.

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There's no way you were snow. The rain snow line ran through central Queens in a north south fashion. I know it did for a fact; I drove through the line to go to a home depot. It was raining at my house and snowing 3 miles west at the home depot.

Yea i was snow...let me find the archive...

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The snowicane is the storm that like circled around right? It went up the coast, did a loop back and then out...no? We did stay all snow for that one...

That one had like 2 inches of rain before it went to snow in a west to east fashion...it went to snow in Queens around noon...Nassau in the afternoon early evening...and where I am at...near midnight...still picked up nearly 11 inches out here as the snow came down *very* hard overnight

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Meanwhile here are the obs courtesy of famartin:

http://www.njfreeway...servations.html

i stand corrected reading through my obs...it was a transition event...my mistake...must have mixed it up with the other 500 events...it might have been that on one of the other loops it was snow here and rain south shore???

Maybe after the main transition south shore was going back and forth, who knows, but i do remember the ALEX - long beach precip difference

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I lived in Plainview just north of Old Counrty Road for 23 years (elevation 160 feet) ...and my general recollection was that in marginal situations...it tended to be just warm enough for rain with astonishing frequency. I would often drive up Route 106 or 107 towards Brookville, East Norwich or even Syosset...and snowfall was invariably a good bit more significant oh say 4 to 5 miles north of my mailing address. Most of that area is over the 200 foot contour and 15 to 20 miles north of the ocean...often times was just good enough to put down some decent snows. The rural nature of the region...generally 4 acre zoning...helped too.

One of my favorite drives was during PD2. I got off the Port Jeff Ferry and it was just overcast early in the evening.

Still no flakes by the time that I arrived in Holbrook. But encountered heavy snow approaching the Nassau Co line

and had around 5 inches on the ground in Long Beach.

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