Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A tiny bit warmer/wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gfs is a tad more north and warmer but the 0c 850 line doesnt cross NYC..Looks good to me Negligible differences. We are talking maybe 5 miles north. GFS held serve with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS has no precip after hour 45. Barely .01" So no point in looking past that. This run is very nice for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sweet sounding for KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sweet sounding for KNYC Nice and saturated looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 where can I view the surface temp model of the gfs? This is the one I'm looking at. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F19%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=045&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 where can I view the surface temp model of the gfs? This is the one I'm looking at. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Click on the 10m link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Does anyone have the SUNY MM5 for both of these events? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Does anyone have the SUNY MM5 for both of these events? Thanks. Yea, meso model time is nearing! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 quite a bit warmer at 18Z for Long Island compared to 12Z. 18Z http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kisp&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h48&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 12Z http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kisp&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h54&cu=previous&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea, meso model time is nearing! lol suny mm5 is usually a very good model to pick up the mesoscale features and where they set up with snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The precip is over then. Its just mist or drizzle anyway quite a bit warmer at 18Z for Long Island compared to 12Z. 18Z http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 12Z http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 quite a bit warmer at 18Z for Long Island compared to 12Z. 18Z http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 12Z http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Precip is almost over by then. The column is nowhere near saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The precip is over then. Its just mist or drizzle anyway You are right. I looked at the sounding too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 does it still have the lakes cutter for Mon-Tue that washes our snow away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 24. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 37. East wind 8 to 15 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible Why is my forecasted snow 1 inch more than the forecast area 5 miles west of me, elevation cant make that much of a difference Mine :298ft Theirs: 69ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It actually comes in Sunday night through Monday night. Temps rise into the 50s by Monday morning/afternoon. does it still have the lakes cutter for Mon-Tue that washes our snow away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It actually comes in Sunday night through Monday night. Temps rise into the 50s by Monday morning/afternoon. wow-one storm after another...that will be quite the change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Don't forget, SWFE are notorious for coming north last second. The reason why this may not come north as much or none at all, is because the s/w is so weak and we have some confluence to our north. The srly trends may be right and the NAM may have a burp run, but it's not a total shock if it happens. BTW, euro ensembles were just a tiny bit north of the op, but overall seemed very similar. Another reason this may not come north is the digging system into the Pac NW and West Coast, SWFEs in which there is a digging semi-progressive upper trough in the Western U.S. have a tendency to be the ones that work well for areas into NYC/NJ. A few past events with this setup would be 1/6/89, 2/8/94, 12/19/08 and 2/22/08. Ones in which the upper low or trough is off the West Coast or there is ridging in the West are the ones that always seem to go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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