MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where is tmagman with the rgem? It's not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I wonder what guidance Mt. Holly is looking at, I haven't seen anything which would change my zone over to plain rain yet. If anything I could see the mention of sleet. Saturday: Snow before 2pm, then rain and snow likely. High near 34. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where is tmagman with the rgem? Only out to 12. I'll post it when its out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Big difference here. The antecedent airmass is much colder and drier. If we keep the system progressive and relatively weak ie 12z runs, then the temperatures at the surface should be fine for most of the event. I'm just saying that we could be throwing in warm low level moisture.....I'd go with sleet from Lido Beach eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z rgem looks great: Hour 36: Hour 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Between half and 3/4 of an inch of what? Rain, sleet? I wonder what guidance Mt. Holly is looking at, I haven't seen anything which would change my zone over to plain rain yet. If anything I could see the mention of sleet. Saturday: Snow before 2pm, then rain and snow likely. High near 34. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM is also warmer. Disagree. If tmagan is here, he'll post accumulated snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Point and click has long beach still rain snow...only the barrier islands are though, south shore of the island is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm just saying that we could be throwing in warm low level moisture.....I'd go with sleet from Lido Beach eastward. It won't take much to completely ruin it from here eastward. We absolutely need the wind direction to stay northerly and the coastal front out of here, or we spike way up in a hurry. We really need a weaker, southern solution like the 0z and 12z runs mostly had. If we get the usual north bump at the end, it's likely predominantly rain even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Disagree. If tmagan is here, he'll post accumulated snowfall. I just looked closely. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Big difference here. The antecedent airmass is much colder and drier. If we keep the system progressive and relatively weak ie 12z runs, then the temperatures at the surface should be fine for most of the event. There's also quite a difference between water temps in the low 60s in late October and in the mid 40s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Don't forget, SWFE are notorious for coming north last second. The reason why this may not come north as much or none at all, is because the s/w is so weak and we have some confluence to our north. The srly trends may be right and the NAM may have a burp run, but it's not a total shock if it happens. BTW, euro ensembles were just a tiny bit north of the op, but overall seemed very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I just looked closely. You're right. You can tell its still also south because it gives NYC area about .40" of precip, and north of Boston only about .20" of qpf. Also, at hour 48, the 540 line is on top of NYC and all the precip is done by then. 12z NAM had the 540 line just north of NYC at hour 54. and 12z GFS had it in the same spot the 18z rgem had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 From Mt. Holly's HWO for Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset counties in NJ: AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. For Mercer, Middlesex, and Monmouth counties: A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 From Craig Allen... Craig Allen On-Air Inc Still just looking like light snow or flurries first part of tonight. Since it's rather cold, it will be a fluffy snow with a dusting to an inch or so. Tomorrw still looks cold and dry. And as mentioned in the previous post, some weather models have trended colder with a more southern track of the Friday night/Sat system. The nam has not. While indeed a more southerly route, it continues to bring warming in for the last 3 runs of 6z to 12z to the latest 18z, because 1) no source of cold air to the north of the storm 2) SE to E wind 3) water temps still unusually mild offshore in the mid 40's 4) 850 0° is up towards I-84. This would negate a moderate snow across L.I. and down NJ- probably y even the City. North & west suburbs could see several inches bfr a possible mix. Lets see which scenarios trend towards whom (snowier or wetter) over the next run or two before accepting the bold proclamations snowfall estimates by a few who are already on their megaphones and shouting it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where is tmagman with the rgem? Eating dinner. Honey glazed carrots. 18Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That was the last thing I saw coming after seeing the models last night... basically looks like a 3-5 inch event from NYC and further north, although I'd still be concerned about mixing for NYC with the 850mb line coming north, although surface is cold throughout the event perhaps there could be just enough warming to change the precipitation type over to sleet towards the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Binghamton and Mount Holly radars are back up. Only Upton is still down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Don't forget, SWFE are notorious for coming north last second. The reason why this may not come north as much or none at all, is because the s/w is so weak and we have some confluence to our north. The srly trends may be right and the NAM may have a burp run, but it's not a total shock if it happens. BTW, euro ensembles were just a tiny bit north of the op, but overall seemed very similar. Thanks Scott. I said last night that every SWFE I can remember has, at the very least, ticked north at the last second. The only two exceptions I can remember both occurred during periods of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Eating dinner. Honey glazed carrots. 18Z RGEM Total Snow. 0.4 inches in Manhattan exactly. 3-5 inches there, with southern Brooklyn getting 2-4 and the Jersey shore (not Northern Monmouth County) getting T-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well if that's the forecast for Warren and Morris the rest of us are certainly screwed. Interesting to see a large difference between Upton and Mt. Holly in the reverse direction. Usually upton is more conservative and they are going with 3 to 5"+ now From Mt. Holly's HWO for Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset counties in NJ: AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. For Mercer, Middlesex, and Monmouth counties: A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM usually nails these warm noses that have a tendency to show up in these events but nevertheless.....a 3-6" event up here will be quite delicious....and start to turn this miserable winter around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Eating dinner. Honey glazed carrots. 18Z RGEM Total Snow. Thanks. That is gorgeous. These totals also include the clipper tonight for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This might end up like the late October snow with the forecast from Mt. Holly and Upton going up in terms of snowfall, especially around the city and its immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This might end up like the late October snow with the forecast from Mt. Holly and Upton going up in terms of snowfall, especially around the city and its immediate suburbs. I knew the October storm was going to be a bigger storm when I woke up in the morning and at 930 there were raindrops that when they hit your car exploded and melted because they were a 1/4 snow at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18Z RGEM Meteogram for Central Park, NY from 00Z Saturday to 18Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z NAM still looks decent for places near the city and north on the new Ewall snow map, if not even better north of NYC, but the cutoff south of NYC is more noticeable on this run. The increased QPF could be the reason that NYC still has nearly 4" as the soundings on Twisterdata show a changeover after 15z, with at least some mixing at the end of the storm for NYC looking likely IMO regardless of how much snow falls at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Why is Mt holly totally downplaying the event to a 1-2 incher in Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 gfs is a tad more north and warmer but the 0c 850 line doesnt cross NYC..Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS pretty much holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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