SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thats drizzle no matter what due to the loss of saturation above 800mb. The nam is ending the precip by 18z here. It gets too close for comfort though aloft and at the surface. Way to warm for snow at the mid levels by 48. Probably sleet/freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At 45hr the twisterdata model soundings show a marginal snow sounding just N and NE of NYC, and a rain sounding in NY harbor. The NAM has the warmest mid-levels of any model by far thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Even at 45 hours, the surface is cold. Surface could be 15 degrees, if the 850 and associated levels are above 0...it's sleet. Maybe freezing rain depending on the depth of the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Surface could be 15 degrees, if the 850 and associated levels are above 0...it's sleet. Maybe freezing rain depending on the depth of the warming. Sleet counts to the snow totals so I would be fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm eyeballing all snow NW of NYC. Snow to sleet for CNJ, NYC, and most of LI. And snow to rain for the southeast coasts. The more consolidated s/w strengthens the mid-level warmth significantly, but it also adds 50% to the total QPF. nam has a history of having a blip run within 48hrs of an event..Not to say its doing it this time but we should wait for the 00z runs to see if its a trend or a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sleet counts to the snow totals so I would be fine with that. You're kidding right? Sleet is the snows devil child. Just for saying this I hope you get 100% sleet the entire event. Ping...ping...ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At 45hr the twisterdata model soundings show a marginal snow sounding just N and NE of NYC, and a rain sounding in NY harbor. The NAM has the warmest mid-levels of any model by far thus far. hers knyc at 45, im sure it would still be snow with an 850 of .1 http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You're kidding right? Sleet is the snows devil child. Just for saying this I hope you get 100% sleet the entire event. Ping...ping...ping. Thanks. I wouldn't mind 2-4 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Funny, because the NYC sounding showed above is all liquid. Sleet wouldnt have a chance to form in that environment. You're kidding right? Sleet is the snows devil child. Just for saying this I hope you get 100% sleet the entire event. Ping...ping...ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks. I wouldn't mind 2-4 inches of sleet. You'll need heavy precipitation or two days of moderate precipitation to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sleet counts to the snow totals so I would be fine with that. Sleet compacts the snow, so it's probably a net loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro ensemble mean agrees with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Funny, because the NYC sounding showed above is all liquid. Sleet wouldnt have a chance to form in that environment. Yeah...the depth of the warm layer is pretty large on the NAM in some spots. Not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 4am. Low around 23. North wind at 6 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 34. East wind 6 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah...the depth of the warm layer is pretty large on the NAM in some spots. Not a good run. The NAM is FAMOUS for this, though. It wouldn't take a big shift though for a lot of us to miss out, though. Do you feel it is an off run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 4am. Low around 23. North wind at 6 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 34. East wind 6 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Brooklyn Upton Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 4am. Low around 26. North wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 38. East wind 8 to 15 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 By the way Upton's latest forecast doesn't mention any changeover in my area. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM is FAMOUS for this, though. It wouldn't take a big shift though for a lot of us to miss out. Di you feel it is an off run? Considering all the globals...their ensembles..and the SREF all disagree by a wide margin...I wouldn't read into it too much. Just keep it in mind and move along. If the other 18z data comes in like this, we may have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Love the NAM run up this way, even if it doesn't stay all snow, I have the best chance of staying all snow and with higher QPF I might over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Love the NAM run up this way, even if it doesn't stay all snow, I have the best chance of staying all snow and with higher QPF I might over perform. don't get your weenie in a bunch..still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Anyone look at water temps? 45, 46, 47 degrees.....did we not learn from October 29th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Anyone look at water temps? 45, 46, 47 degrees.....did we not learn from October 29th? What were we supposed to learn? Im on Long Island and got 2 inches of snow? If anything i learned that it can snow with water temps in the 50's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 don't get your weenie in a bunch..still plenty of time After the week I have had, which a few people on here are aware of what I'm talking about, I could use a plesant suprise. In actuallity this Saturday is one of the worst possible days this winter it could snow. Luckily it should be over by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That's a hideous run for the south shore-south winds to start which warm us up like crazy, maybe snow briefly then over to mostly rain. That's just for the immediate coast though. BQE on northwest never gets above freezing and is likely a fairly lengthy sleet/freezing rain episode. It's great for Boston and I-90. Given how not one other piece of guidance agrees with it, I'd toss it for now, but you always have to watch for last minute north trends on these. Hopefully this run isn't the start of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Big difference here. The antecedent airmass is much colder and drier. If we keep the system progressive and relatively weak ie 12z runs, then the temperatures at the surface should be fine for most of the event. Anyone look at water temps? 45, 46, 47 degrees.....did we not learn from October 29th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 After the week I have had, which a few people on here are aware of what I'm talking about, I could use a plesant suprise. In actuallity this Saturday is one of the worst possible days this winter it could snow. Luckily it should be over by afternoon. hopefully a hot date on tap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 WINTER STORM WATCHES up for Sussex County and the Poconos, if this is old news, I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That's a hideous run for the south shore-south winds to start which warm us up like crazy, maybe snow briefly then over to mostly rain. That's just for the immediate coast though. BQE on northwest never gets above freezing and is likely a fairly lengthy sleet/freezing rain episode. It's great for Boston and I-90. Given how not one other piece of guidance agrees with it, I'd toss it for now, but you always have to watch for last minute north trends on these. Hopefully this run isn't the start of one. Yeah, that's why it's so important for the coastal front to stay to our south with such mild ocean temperatures. We'll probably have to wait until 12z run tomorrow to really know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where is tmagman with the rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 hopefully a hot date on tap? I wish lol Fire Department installation dinner which I am now being forced to attend alone I'm not really feeling up to it, but I am one of the officers so I feel obligated to attend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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