nycsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Flurries in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Dry air could cut down on precip.....we could be having a few hours of virga overnight Friday. Dewpoints behind tonight's clipper are well below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is north by a good bit through 33 hours. It has the surface low driving farther north again towards Ohio like some of the older model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is north by a good bit through 33 hours. It has the surface low driving farther north again towards Ohio like some of the older model runs. Just looking at the 500mb charts, the 18z has a slightly better defined s/w near Iowa at 30hrs with a pocket of vocticity in that vicinity as opposed to down in Kansas at 12z. So that matches the marginally stronger low center and further north warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 John Marshall (http://www.johnmarshallweather.com/) has out a snow map for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just looking at the 500mb charts, the 18z has a slightly better defined s/w near Iowa at 30hrs with a pocket of vocticity in that vicinity as opposed to down in Kansas at 12z. So that matches the marginally stronger low center and further north warm push. For a one run change, the mid level warm push is dramatically stronger. Not sure what to make of the NAM disagreeing with almost every global model run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This NAM run will probably be slightly wetter and warmer than 12z. Likely good for NNJ and SENY, not as good for coastal regions. But the surface still looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Little blizzard getting on belt parkway near marine park golf course it was cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well this would follow in this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Cooling off now at 42 hours. Still warmer than 12z...more precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For a one run change, the mid level warm push is dramatically stronger. Not sure what to make of the NAM disagreeing with almost every global model run at this point. Its the NAM - Nothing more has to said!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At 42 hours, it's most likely snow for the area with the surface being below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's an off-hour NAM run. Who cares? Going by those, 12/26/10 and 12/19/09 would never have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 By hr 39 the NAM has the surface low 2-3 mb deeper and 100 miles ENE of 12z. It's also ~5mb deeper than the GFS. It has a much more well defined surface system than other guidance. Despite the increased strength and mid-level warmth, the surface looks just as cold as 12z through the early periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ugly run...48 hours is warm with the 850 0c line way north of any guidance. Hopefully a burp run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This run of the NAM looks much snowier to me than recent runs and other guidance. It doesn't shear out the already weak s/w nearly as much as other guidance. But it still manages to stay cold at the surface and marginally cold enough in the mid-levels for mostly snow. I like this run except if I'm along the NJ or ELI coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM is a tad warmer with 18z than it was with 12z. It has the 850 mb 0 C Line north by about 10-15 miles or so than it was with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At 42 hours, it's most likely snow for the area with the surface being below freezing. Unfortunately, surface temps and 850 temps warm considerably by 45, with the surface and 850 lines just north of the city. Probably still a couple inches before the changeover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Isn't it largely done precipitating by then? Ugly run...48 hours is warm with the 850 0c line way north of any guidance. Hopefully a burp run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ugly run...48 hours is warm with the 850 0c line way north of any guidance. Hopefully a burp run. ups the snowfall though on the clown maps for north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Little blizzard getting on belt parkway near marine park golf course it was cool TDWR TEWR using clear air color table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ugly run...48 hours is warm with the 850 0c line way north of any guidance. Hopefully a burp run. Precip is gone by 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 TDWR TEWR using clear air color table. Awesome thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam is showing 3 lows Way to warm for snow at the mid levels by 48. Probably sleet/freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Typo..meant 45 hours. My iPhone knows me so well that it corrects 45 hours to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Way to warm for snow at the mid levels by 48. Probably sleet/freezing rain: Precip is done by then, so doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm eyeballing all snow NW of NYC. Snow to sleet for CNJ, NYC, and most of LI. And snow to rain for the southeast coasts. The more consolidated s/w strengthens the mid-level warmth significantly, but it also adds 50% to the total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Typo..meant 45 hours. My iPhone knows me so well that it corrects 45 hours to 48 hours. Even at 45 hours, the surface is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 SNOW CANCEL!!! Nah too early for that. It's still the Nam and how many times has it screwed up even at 36 hours, I'll go with the other guidance at this point unless things start changing later tonight that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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