eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow...that is very close for comfort, 30 miles north and LI is screwed I don't think it's as close as it looks. The map is slightly distorted. The rain/snow line is 50 miles south of Staten Island along the Jersey coast and 75 miles south of the metro further inland in NJ. All of LI is snow with isolated mixing possible in the far SE tip. The rain/snow line always looks close to LI offshore because the surface temperatures over open waters are relatively warm. But surface temperatures over land are plenty cold and I think there is also margin for a warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I agree. Still, as a Long islander, its close. Likewise for us down in Monmouth County NJ. It will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Is the lightest blue up to 0.1 mm, or from .1mm to .5mm? It is from .1 to .5. Thats all light snow on that map. Rough equivalents at 10:1 .1mm = Trace .5mm = 0.2"/hour 1mm = 0.4"/hour 3mm = 1.2"/hour 6mm = 2.4"/hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I agree. Still, as a Long islander, its close. Its a little close, but not as close as it looks. Basically it is going to rain over the warm ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ok im getting pumped! Expectations are up. LEts do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Temperatures in NYC are not going to hit 35. We are several degrees below what we were expecting to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro a bit farther south through 48 hours. Already snowing steadily at that time frame. 850 0c over the m/d line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With this plus the 2.9 in October, NYC should pull ahead of the worst duds on the lowest seasonal snowfall list. http://www.erh.noaa....tersmonths.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still snow at 66...colder than 00z. 850 0c line running from Philly to Asbury Park NJ and east off the coast at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Event is over by 60 hrs. Total qpf is less than 0.5"...all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Event is over by 60 hrs. Total qpf is less than 0.5"...all snow. Thanks for the update. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think everyone here can be satisfied with this! Event is over by 60 hrs. Total qpf is less than 0.5"...all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can't believe it's been almost 3 months since NYC got 2.9"... What's even funnier is that NYC may get the same amount of snow as they did on 10/29.. Yet it will stick a lot better this time around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The models are trending too far south for my liking. I think Cold High Pressure is too far south and that could help suppress the storm a bit and put the axis of the heavy snow just south of NYC. Coming in drier is starting to worry me alittle. Possibly the snow will go too fast that it may come in as vigra since it will be too dry. The timing and the placement of the high needs to perfect to produce the overrunning snow storm. It is becoming more likely based on the model trends it will go too far south to bring the substantial amount of snow than go too far north the snow will change to rain. The more southerly track will cause a weaker storm and that means the storm will have less energy and moisture to work to go much north. The GFS/NAM/GGEM looked perfect to me. 2-4" I will take any day and even an inch would be good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can't believe it's been almost 3 months since NYC got 2.9"... What's even funnier is that NYC may get the same amount of snow as they did on 10/29.. Yet it will stick a lot better this time around.. kind of like the 70's and early 80's Mets fans that were happy just not to finish in Last place for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The models are trending too far south for my liking. I think Cold High Pressure is too far south and that could help suppress the storm a bit and put the axis of the heavy snow just south of NYC. Coming in drier is starting to worry me alittle. Possibly the snow will go too fast that it may come in as vigra since it will be too dry. The timing and the placement of the high needs to perfect to produce the overrunning snow storm. It is becoming more likely based on the model trends it will go too far south to bring the substantial amount of snow than go too far north the snow will change to rain. The GFS/NAM looked perfect to me. Light rain on Sandy Hook, light snow on Coney Island, heavy snow in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The models are trending too far south for my liking. I think Cold High Pressure is too far south and that could help suppress the storm a bit and put the axis of the heavy snow just south of NYC. Coming in drier is starting to worry me alittle. Possibly the snow will go too fast that it may come in as vigra since it will be too dry. The timing and the placement of the high needs to perfect to produce the overrunning snow storm. It is becoming more likely based on the model trends it will go too far south to bring the substantial amount of snow than go too far north the snow will change to rain. The GFS/NAM looked perfect to me. Nam was a little warm for the area. The Euro is great for the area. These storms tend to trend north at the last second. I doubt this will trend really north since we have a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 How much does the Euro show? 2-4 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The models are trending too far south for my liking. I think Cold High Pressure is too far south and that could help suppress the storm a bit and put the axis of the heavy snow just south of NYC. Coming in drier is starting to worry me alittle. Possibly the snow will go too fast that it may come in as vigra since it will be too dry. The timing and the placement of the high needs to perfect to produce the overrunning snow storm. It is becoming more likely based on the model trends it will go too far south to bring the substantial amount of snow than go too far north the snow will change to rain. The GFS/NAM looked perfect to me. relax. You'll get 2-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think everyone here can be satisfied with this! There will inevitably be someone who isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I will be thrilled even if we get an inch out here. After the way the winter has gone so far, I am not getting greedy There will inevitably be someone who isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The models are trending too far south for my liking. I think Cold High Pressure is too far south and that could help suppress the storm a bit and put the axis of the heavy snow just south of NYC. Coming in drier is starting to worry me alittle. Possibly the snow will go too fast that it may come in as vigra since it will be too dry. The timing and the placement of the high needs to perfect to produce the overrunning snow storm. It is becoming more likely based on the model trends it will go too far south to bring the substantial amount of snow than go too far north the snow will change to rain. The GFS/NAM looked perfect to me. A storm further south means that the vort driving the storm is weaker, and therefore the lift and associated precip is a little weaker. Still, this winter it's impossible to complain about a 3-6" type of storm. Should easily be sufficient to generate advisories at least. Even with a slight north bump at the end most of us are good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If I'm reading the models and comments correctly, it ooks like Central Jersey (most of Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon/Mercer), perhaps even including the northern Monmouth County coast, could be the bullseye, i.e., getting the heaviest precip without changing over to rain, except maybe at the very end, which doesn't really matter. That would be rare, although it did happen a few times over the past 2 years. I'd be happy with 2-4" of the white stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I will be thrilled even if we get an inch out here. After the way the winter has gone so far, I am not getting greedy I would be happy with a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 There will inevitably be someone who isn't. John, What happens next week and into February on the Euro? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With this plus the 2.9 in October, NYC should pull ahead of the worst duds on the lowest seasonal snowfall list. http://www.erh.noaa....tersmonths.html At least 8 seasons with 10" or less, that's not too bad. It means, on average, we get a 10" or less winter every 15 years since records began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Basically exactly 4 inches for everyone. How much does the Euro show? 2-4 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This storm in kind of like going into a casino, spending 100 bucks, you win 125, and then you walk away. I'll take my 2-4" inches and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 3-5 inches in NYC verbatim on the 12Z Euro per the Wunderground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Should see some better ratios along the retreating -8-10C line early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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