jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It'll be nice to finally wake up to a blanket of white on the ground this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is starting to remind me of a Jan 09 event. We were right on the edge from rain after a couple inches to being in the 3 to 6" band. But in the end the precip came in kinda patchy and light and I think we squeezed out an inch or two before it changed over to freezing rain and rain. Hopefully this ends up more 2/22/08 than that event. We arent really on the edge though on the GFS or NAM. It warms up at the very end. While the precip falls in the pre-dawn and morning hours, its plenty cold for all of us, including LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thickness stays south of NYC entire time this run. Good sign for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice run for you guys on the NAM this morning. Checked out the BUFKIT data for Newark... SE winds at 921 hPa and SW winds at 834 hPa, so there's some good lift in there. Not an terribly dynamic system with only modest omega values but they'll do. Showing 3-4" of snow accumulation before a changeover to freezing drizzle for 0.1" after noon as the entire layer from 800 hPa down through 950 hPa goes above 0C. Luckily it looks like the precipitation is shutting off by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z GFS looks like all snow north of CNJ. It's been a while since we had accumulating snow with temps in the 20s during the daytime. It could be a very wintry scene on Saturday. But the mid-level support with this system is very weak, which is largely why mid-level temperatures have been trending colder. This puts a ceiling on the high end potential for snowfall, likely excluding a significant accumulation. But 4" in a few spots doesn't seem out of the question with 12:1 ratios, and on a cold day in this winter that would be glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ukie through hour 42 looks slightly colder then GFS. Edit: at the 850mb level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For what it is worth, the 09Z SREF ensemble mean has Newark rain by 8AM, although examining the ensemble of soundings there seem to be two main camps, a warmer camp well into the rain regime and a more favored cold outcome that is definitely snow which is skewing the mean toward the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am a lawyer, he pretends to be. Hopefully you are not a PI lawyer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 UKMO at 48 hours. Thicknesses, 850, 6 hour precip. If you can't read it, its good. Looking forward to it on ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hopefully you are not a PI lawyer.... That's none of your business, but no, I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ukie through hour 42 looks slightly colder then GFS. Edit: at the 850mb level Yeah. Ukie is colder then the GFS at the 850 level. Also looks a little wetter. Would guesstimate about .40" of qpf. Here is hour 54-60 qpf. Cant see hours 48-54, but it has to be close to .25": Hour 54-60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah. Ukie is colder then the GFS at the 850 level. Also looks a little wetter. Would guesstimate about .40" of qpf. Here is hour 54-60 qpf. Cant see hours 48-54, but it has to be close to .25": Hour 54-60: this plus my map is a nice hit for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 UKMO at 48 hours. Thicknesses, 850, 6 hour precip. If you can't read it, its good. Looking forward to it on ewall Hour 60, has 850 line well below LI. And has .25" of precip from hour 54-60 alone. Ewall will not show us precip from hour 48-54 either. Definetely looks south and colder then both the NAM and GFS, but with more precip then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah. Ukie is colder then the GFS at the 850 level. Also looks a little wetter. Would guesstimate about .40" of qpf. Here is hour 54-60 qpf. Cant see hours 48-54, but it has to be close to .25": Hour 54-60: It don't look colder by much. Interesting note on the 12z GFS while the 850's look sigifiantly colder the surface temps look about the same especially along the coast from the 6z GFS. If the 12z GFS verifies it could be one of those situation even when the temps rise from 20's to around or slightly above the freezing since mid and upper air levels stay should keep it staying snow even along the coast until precip gets lighter or breaks between the heavy burst that mixing will only take place then. When the precip picks up again before moving out any temporary mixed precip will go back to snow very quickly with the cold air keep dragging down to the surface. This looks like NYC will stay 98% snow through the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Im pretty sure the GFS has no idea that Long Island really exists so it smoothes the 0C contour too much. It don't look colder by much. Interesting note on the 12z GFS while the 850's look sigifiantly colder the surface temps look about the same especially along the coast from the 6z GFS. If the 12z GFS verifies it could be one of those situation even when the temps rise from 20's to around or slightly above the freezing since mid and upper air levels stay should keep it staying snow even along the coast until precip gets lighter or breaks between the heavy burst that mixing will only take place then. When the precip picks up again before moving out any temporary mixed precip will go back to snow very quickly with the cold air keep dragging down to the surface. This looks like NYC will stay 98% snow through the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 One bit of concern is what Eduggs was alluding to-that the colder solutions also mean less lift, and therefore less snow/precip. But it seems that what swipes us regardless is a good 3-5" or so hit of snow. Definitely enough to cover the ground, shovel and make it look like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 One bit of concern is what Eduggs was alluding to-that the colder solutions also mean less lift, and therefore less snow/precip. But it seems that what swipes us regardless is a good 3-5" or so hit of snow. Definitely enough to cover the ground, shovel and make it look like winter. Better for our area. That would hurt SNE morem but for us this is what we want. A weak vort, with little lift that will leave a stripe of 3"-6" of snow areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We'll see if we can get some enhancement to the qpf amounts in later runs for being right in the jet entrance region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 60 and convection monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is a nice sounding for the UKMET at 48 hours. Hard to imagine it gets warm enough to turn over NYC from 48-54. And the UKMET soundins are always too warm at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I rather not get anymore trends to the south because that would mean less snow for the area. It is perfect where it is at right now the levels staying cold and jet streak over perfect area right now. In overunning events most of time except for 2/22/08 the storm usually tends to go bit further north than models suggest. A small track to the north by 20 miles will keep our area in the snowy solution with very little mixing taking place. It looks like 3-6" is good bet and possibly locally up to 8" where the heaviest snow setup. Hopefully this system will have alot of moisture in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is a nice sounding for the UKMET at 48 hours. Hard to imagine it gets warm enough to turn over NYC from 48-54. And the UKMET soundins are always too cold at the surface I think you meant too warm. But either way, looking at hour 60, when storm is over, the 850 line is south of both the gfs and nam, so logic would say hour 54 is colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I rather not get anymore trends to the south because that would mean less snow for the area. It is perfect where it is at right now the levels staying cold and jet streak over perfect area right now. It's not really trending further south. It's trending faster into the confluence (the cold high pressure). It's always been about timing and keeping the system relativitely weak to not flood us with warmth, especially in the mid-levels.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think you meant too warm. But either way, looking at hour 60, when storm is over, the 850 line is south of both the gfs and nam, so logic would say hour 54 is colder as well. I did, you distracted me with your worries about the sound temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Better for our area. That would hurt SNE morem but for us this is what we want. A weak vort, with little lift that will leave a stripe of 3"-6" of snow areawide. I'm still wary of the north bump at the end, but definitely liking the 12z trends so far. I think it's almost a lock now that most of NYC and northern burbs get a decent swipe of snow, a few inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Better for our area. That would hurt SNE morem but for us this is what we want. A weak vort, with little lift that will leave a stripe of 3"-6" of snow areawide. Sounds good. Fairly modest lift but it spans a significant depth of the vertical column and at least partially intersects the ideal snow growth zone. And despite certain vertical ascent enhancing parameters lacking, the model consensus is pretty firm indicating about .4" liquid. I know it's about 24 hours early to nail down forecast accumulations, but even assuming 10:1 ratios, that would be 3-5" regionwide snowfall. If we subtract a tenth for a possible weakening trend and/or coastal mixing, that's still 2-4" And there might even be a slight fluff factor, esp away from the coast, where ratios might exceed 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FYI.. some snow flurries falling at Stony Brook University as of 11:45 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOL, its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z GGEM appears pretty south. Still gives NYC and LI about 8.5mm of precip or .33" qpf. Its very dry for north of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FYI.. some snow flurries falling at Stony Brook University as of 11:45 am. on the coast of CT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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