TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This lifting from this storm is definitely driven primarily via thermal advection.. but actually, there is a bit of support at 250 mb.. it appears we are in the right front quadrant of a jet streak to our north, which might be helping a bit as well. Yes, i agree, just wanted to make sure people were looking at everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You're an elevation snob. J/K Does it bother you that I post in this thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Anyone care to give me a call on Poconos, just SE of Scranton, 2k ft elevation? I was thinking 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yes, i agree, just wanted to make sure people were looking at everything. Wow dude. You are all in on this one eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Anyone care to give me a call on Poconos, just SE of Scranton, 2k ft elevation? I was thinking 4-8". Sounds about right... @ 2k probably closer to 8".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Does it bother you that I post in this thread ? No, we like you. irishrob can go suck a grape fruit though, he is an eagles fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 does this event remind anyone else of the January 2002 event (only event of the season...same type of winter)....just sayin! We had two snow events here that winter, but one was a rare LIS enhanced 3" event which was our first measureable that year. I recall the synoptic event, but not the specific setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well these latest runs are clearly mostly/all snow for NYC. Even if it changes to sleet/rain at the end on this model, 95% of the precip has fallen..Second thing to consider is that a lot of times these types of systems can come in as a quick thump, then they end as some inconsequential drizzle yep,.. and I can see this more of an outcome if the NAM verified.. and really just towards the end of the storm. The one good thing to look at is how much warm air is actually advected into our area over time and you can infer the amount of lifting taking place because of that. In the NAM, you notice that it does eventually want to drive temps up a bit at the end, which inherently means that there isn't enough lift and dynamic cooling taking place to compensate for the warm air coming in.. that'd be a situation where you might start getting into a light slop at the end.. however, if the temp profile holds steady the entire event, then you know the lifting is strong enough to sustain the warm air from overpowering, and in this case you pretty much got a steady snow being sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow dude. You are all in on this one eh? Now that the eta looks like the euro, yeah, I'll bite. Plus, AG3 is all upset, he thinks I don't like snow anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I have my salt and shovel ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 No, we like you. irishrob can go suck a grape fruit though, he is an eagles fan. Erroneous on all counts. I believe you have me confused with that IrishBri dude who is cramping my style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Erroneous on all counts. I believe you have me confused with that IrishBri dude who is cramping my style I got ya back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Erroneous on all counts. I believe you have me confused with that IrishBri dude who is cramping my style Oh snap, sorry about that. I really thought you were the same. My bad, but if I find out you are an eagles fan, we a through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am so amazed by the trend in the models. Timing on the onset of the snow is the key. Faster it comes in then the better we are off. This looks to be at least mostly snow event with some sleet mixing before tapering drizzle or freezing drizzle. That is based off the latest run on the NAM. Overrunning events could be complicated to forecast. Many in overrunning events when mid--level warm air tries to fight in when the precip gets lighter enough warm air in some level will cause it to change to light sleet or light freezing rain/rain but when it picks back up again dynamic cooling will bring the cold air back to the surface and change back to snow. I have seen that happen with many overrunning events. At least 2-4" is good bet for NYC with local amounts up to 6" where the heaviest snow fall and stays all snow. Staten Island and south shore are the only areas that warm air aloft may make enough to change wintry mix but even there it will primary be a snow event with little mixing at times. This event could go very similar to the 2/22/08 but remember another overrunning event happen on 3/2/06 it was forecast to be all snow but warm air level came in which temporary change the snow to sleet/freezing rain then cold air came back to change back to snow with 2-4" fell in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yep,.. and I can see this more of an outcome if the NAM verified.. and really just towards the end of the storm. The one good thing to look at is how much warm air is actually advected into our area over time and you can infer the amount of lifting taking place because of that. In the NAM, you notice that it does eventually want to drive temps up a bit at the end, which inherently means that there isn't enough lift and dynamic cooling taking place to compensate for the warm air coming in.. that'd be a situation where you might start getting into a light slop at the end.. however, if the temp profile holds steady the entire event, then you know the lifting is strong enough to sustain the warm air from overpowering, and in this case you pretty much got a steady snow being sustained. Great point there. I always think back to feb. 22nd, 2008. The models had it warming up to change to rain for NYC and south pretty much the day of the event. We of course ended up with a fantastic shot of warm air advection snows and 4 - 7 inches. I remember it was still snowing from southeast NJ and northward near daybreak . then when it finally got lighter, the warming advanced almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM looks very good through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The snow also started around 11pm the night before so we already had most of our snow over and done with by 9, 10am before any mixing occurred. I'm hoping we can get snow in here before daybreak, which looks like a good bet. At this point I'll be happy to just wake up Saturday morning to see everything covered. Even if its only 2" and all melts the next day. Great point there. I always think back to feb. 22nd, 2008. The models had it warming up to change to rain for NYC and south pretty much the day of the event. We of course ended up with a fantastic shot of warm air advection snows and 4 - 7 inches. I remember it was still snowing from southeast NJ and northward near daybreak . then when it finally got lighter, the warming advanced almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's cool how the models all got colder once the vort was adequately sampled near the PAC NW Coast last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS colder then 6z through hour 42. Precip about to enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS looks very cold, lets hope we don't have a too far south problem at the end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The snow also started around 11pm the night before so we already had most of our snow over and done with by 9, 10am before any mixing occurred. I'm hoping we can get snow in here before daybreak, which looks like a good bet. At this point I'll be happy to just wake up Saturday morning to see everything covered. Even if its only 2" and all melts the next day. Yeah and the key to the timing of this storm occurring a little faster on the latest runs is not so much the night timing/ cold air having less time to be scoured out, as much as it just makes it better shortwave timing underneath the polar vortex lobe swinging through to the north...this feature essentially shears our shortwave out into more of a frontal wave..enough so that it doesnt amp up like previous runs and bring rain. It really is good timing and still a delicate setup. Thankfully we are getting within 48 hours now. Barring any northward trends (which I honestly thought for sure this would end up further north and warmer like yesterday's models), then I guess were looking good for a 3-6" inch area wide event, including NYC probably on the 3-4 end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS looks very cold, lets hope we don't have a too far south problem at the end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS looks very cold, lets hope we don't have a too far south problem at the end of this. Nah, sometimes these tick north at the last second. It's more like an insurance run for you guys..with the tick south. There is some confluence to the north, so it may go south again when all is said and done, but I don't see this getting suppressed for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whew.. So close.. 850's straddle the mason dixon line 48-51 hrs..2m surfac temps bout the same, although cad to our western areas look a little stronger. Soo close for immediate Philly on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 would be classic right? in the winter of the north trend, we get a south push GFS looks good but we wanna keep thosse good VV's over us, that's huge. These things usually tick north anyway at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like it's really gonna snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 What are your professions, Psv88 and TheTrials.. I know this is random question - you both attorney's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 What are your professions, Psv88 and TheTrials.. I know this is random question - you both attorney's? I am a lawyer, he pretends to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That is what I am more concerned about that somehow this will get suppressed to far south. I don't the models should go any far south than it was on the 00z runs. If keeps trending south all the way through by the time the snow comes in. There is chance the heavy snow will stay just to the south. Snow coming early with no blocking shouldn't allow the storm to go too far south. I really think right this storm will take the same kind of course it did in the 2008 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is starting to remind me of a Jan 09 event. We were right on the edge from rain after a couple inches to being in the 3 to 6" band. But in the end the precip came in kinda patchy and light and I think we squeezed out an inch or two before it changed over to freezing rain and rain. Hopefully this ends up more 2/22/08 than that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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