SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM has it snowing by 4am Saturday morning and lasting until 2pm Saturday afternoon. Most of it 4am through 10am though. My guess is it will start closer to midnight or 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At 54 hours there are warm punches showing up in 850 and 800 and 900 levels, people should look at your soundings, yes, precip is ending shortly thereafter, but its def. not snow for many at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At 54 hours there are warm punches showing up in 850 and 800 and 900 levels, people should look at your soundings, yes, precip is ending shortly thereafter, but its def. not snow for many at that time. hopefully we can get the best accums before then--who cares if it ends as rain or drizzle. Also would be good to get most of it during the overnight and early morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 3-5 inches except if you were on the immediate south shore aka metfan land. That was also late February and it warmed up into the upper 30's during the day. This snow should look better if it pans out. Based upon what people are saying w/ the warming coming in at the end.. I'd bet this is a very similar situation... Roads by noon will be wet and not white and it will generally be a dreary type of day after the snow stops w/ temps in the 33-35 degree range.. BTW - i'm not complaining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 unfortunately, this looks like mainly snow for us... the nam is the warmest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 hopefully we can get the best accums before then--who cares if it ends as rain or drizzle. Also would be good to get most of it during the overnight and early morning... just saying precip should still be pretty steady at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 unfortunately, this looks like mainly snow for us... the nam is the warmest model Do you ever sit back and say to yourself, jeez, my act is so old, it makes the golden girls look young? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Do you ever sit back and say to yourself, jeez, my act is so old, it makes the golden girls look young? december and january had a chance of being snowless... that would have been historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Impressive UVV's at 48-51 hours, should rip very nicely at that time with excellent snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Coastal front really struggles to make much progress north outside of the South Shore of Suffolk. Good to see the models move away from the stronger SE flow of a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 december and january had a chance of being snowless... that would have been historic yes, we know how you feel, but honestly, you're a smart dude, and your posts in the non banter threads would go a lot further and help more people become better posters without your spin of not liking snow etc. Just sayin. I wont bring it up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At 54 hours there are warm punches showing up in 850 and 800 and 900 levels, people should look at your soundings, yes, precip is ending shortly thereafter, but its def. not snow for many at that time. Through hour 54, .42" of precip has fallen in NYC. Only .04" falls after hour 54. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 unfortunately, I have to classify this as a very unfortunate event for me, being that the timing could not have been any worse.. I have a big party planned for my son at a restaurant.. folks travelling here from out of town.. and my folks flying up from Florida for his birthday.. fortunately for them, they are coming before Saturday, but this is the one day I did not want to see snow... but hey, that's life... maybe by noon, the roads will be somewhat cleared up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 700mb RHs reach 70% by 04Z Saturday across a good part of the area, this has historically been a good measurer of when the precipitation begins in the SW Flow events, if that works again the NAM is easily a good 5-7 hours too slow with the start of the snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Coastal front really struggles to make much progress north outside of the South Shore of Suffolk. Good to see the models move away from the stronger SE flow of a few days ago. eh not sure what ur seeing...the flow looks pretty strong to me off of water in mid-40s...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 700mb RHs reach 70% by 04Z Saturday across a good part of the area, this has historically been a good measurer of when the precipitation begins in the SW Flow events, if that works again the NAM is easily a good 5-7 hours too slow with the start of the snow right now. oh easily. It always is. I really like the alignment of lift and saturation that its showing. SWFE always rip if you stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 just saying precip should still be pretty steady at that point. There is no precip left after hour 54. Only .03"-.05" falls AFTER hour 54. In fact, .31" of the .42" falls THROUGH hour 51. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Through hour 54, .42" of precip has fallen in NYC. Only .04" falls after hour 54. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_knyc.txt yeah, i looked again, SV RH maps are a little deceiving, probably too warm anyway on the NAM. and surface is good so it won't melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Key here for the South Shore on this NAM run is that there's no south flow at all, it's ENE veering around to more N. That's great for us and should lock cold air in. Obviously, the faster the snow arrives, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It would be hilarious if NYC actually broke the daily snow record for 1/21 on Saturday in this crap hole of a winter. The record is 6.0 from 2001, we'd certainly need the event to be entirely snow to do so, I believe if we got an all snow event we'd have around a 25-30% shot at breaking it. does this event remind anyone else of the January 2002 event (only event of the season...same type of winter)....just sayin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 eh not sure what ur seeing...the flow looks pretty strong to me off of water in mid-40s...yikes. The freezing line hugs the coast until you get out toward FOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 unfortunately, I have to classify this as a very unfortunate event for me, being that the timing could not have been any worse.. I have a big party planned for my son at a restaurant.. folks travelling here from out of town.. and my folks flying up from Florida for his birthday.. fortunately for them, they are coming before Saturday, but this is the one day I did not want to see snow... but hey, that's life... maybe by noon, the roads will be somewhat cleared up 3-5 inches should not be a show stopper esp with it ending by noon and temps going above freezing-easy plowing at that point-I see you point though, no snow for something like that is preferred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 does this event remind anyone else of the January 2002 event (only event of the season...same type of winter)....just sayin! That was quite a bit more upper level and less overrunning induced than this event is, there was a decent surface low that formed off the Delmarva as well. That occurred in SW flow but wasn't really a true SW flow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This sounds like a typical early 90's set up where Joe Cioffi, on News 12 LI would bring out his map with the LIE being the dividing line... North of the LIE is a 2-5" event and south of the LIE is 1-3" and on the immediate coast 1" For years, throughout the 80's and early 90's it was always my belief that it could never snow on the south shore b/c of how these types of setups would occur.. I remember as a kid saying to myself - "wow, aren't i lucky to live North of the LIE - the south shore gets no snow" That line of thought changed forever from 1996 on... The last decade and a half have proved that this LIE dividing rule is kinda dumb.. However, in Joe Cioffi's defense, for these types of setups it appears to be some what legit.. Plus he was a great forecaster.. Even though he was a bit bullish most of the time - he made things so interesting during a time when in retrospect NOTHING was interesting... I lived on the south shore from the winters of 85-86 through 94-95. I can attest to the fact that it sucks for snow there. I usually had to get my snow fix at work (on the north shore starting in 90). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 unfortunately, this looks like mainly snow for us... the nam is the warmest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The ETA matches up very well to the Euro. That's good news. The only DT rule I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow ratios may even be a factor the further inland you go. Temps will be quite cold throughout the boundary layer as well as the surface in these parts.. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That was quite a bit more upper level and less overrunning induced than this event is, there was a decent surface low that formed off the Delmarva as well. That occurred in SW flow but wasn't really a true SW flow storm. This lifting from this storm is definitely driven primarily via thermal advection.. but actually, there is a bit of support at 250 mb.. it appears we are in the right front quadrant of a jet streak to our north, which might be helping a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 just saying precip should still be pretty steady at that point. Well these latest runs are clearly mostly/all snow for NYC. Even if it changes to sleet/rain at the end on this model, 95% of the precip has fallen..Second thing to consider is that a lot of times these types of systems can come in as a quick thump, then they end as some inconsequential drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow ratios may even be a factor the further inland you go. Temps will be quite cold throughout the boundary layer as well as the surface in these parts.. You're an elevation snob. J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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