ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Wunderground clown maps are a thing of beauty for us. 3"-6" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thanks for the info. This is the Euro's accurate range, but do you think that it will gave to the GGEM and the GFS which both show a primarily rain event, with some snow at the outset? Euro is too cold and its accurate range has been less than that in terms of rain snow line. This really can only trend warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro is too cold and its accurate range has been less than that in terms of rain snow line. This really can only trend warmer. What makes you say that? In fact, I would argue that the forecast models over the last week have somewhat under-estimated the degree of low level cold. We saw this with the system last night -- where around 84 hours out most models were arguing for a complete rain event. Once the low level cold became established, the models adjusted accordingly. There are 510dm heights over New England at 72 hours. Could it trend warmer? Sure. It very well could trend warmer and end up being a snow event for New England, which actually is the favored spot for any type of precipitation in this poor pattern. But I certainly wouldn't say it "can only trend warmer". That statement seems way too definitive to me at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think it's time to try and put an end to this absurd 1-3" range that tv mets invented in the 70s. A powdery 3" that accumulates on roadways can be an impactful storm. 1" is usually just a nuissance snow. But most people just assume the higher number. The same is true for 3-6 and 4-8 etc. It might be better to report a single number with an error bar, like 5, plus or minus 2. We shouldn't always estimate upwards based on model QPF. At our latidude and near the Atlantic Ocean, a 10:1 ratio is a good first assumption. So from .11" liquid we should guess a range of something like .6" to 1.6, not 1-3" Other potentially acceptable forecasts would be "around an inch," or "a coating to 2" or just "<2" I agree, but I think at this range 1-3" is just the default response for a "light snowfall". It's difficult to try and guess the exact liquid equivalent and snowfall amounts when thermal profile forecasts at this range are so precarious. This specific model run, 1-3" actually sounds fair. But I do understand where you're coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What makes you say that? In fact, I would argue that the forecast models over the last week have somewhat under-estimated the degree of low level cold. We saw this with the system last night -- where around 84 hours out most models were arguing for a complete rain event. Once the low level cold became established, the models adjusted accordingly. There are 510dm heights over New England at 72 hours. Could it trend warmer? Sure. It very well could trend warmer and end up being a snow event for New England, which actually is the favored spot for any type of precipitation in this poor pattern. But I certainly wouldn't say it "can only trend warmer". That statement seems way too definitive to me at this range. True. The GFS showed no sleet in Brooklyn yesterday, but the sidewalk near where I live was covered with ice pellets by 11 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I agree, but I think at this range 1-3" is just the default response for a "light snowfall". It's difficult to try and guess the exact liquid equivalent and snowfall amounts when thermal profile forecasts at this range are so precarious. This specific model run, 1-3" actually sounds fair. But I do understand where you're coming from. Agreed that 1-3 generally translates to "light snowfall." Most of today's modeling suggests under and inch of snowfall and we rarely do well with the primary low well to our north, but I kind of like the look at 3h and 5h - good upper level divergence. Right now it is not translating into model QPF, and unfortunately the shortwave trof looks to track slightly too far to the north. However, almost every 12z GEFS member had higher QPF than the operational run. The mean and most of the individual members support a regionwide average of 2", but I haven't seen much other support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 NAM coming in juicier for the coast for the clipper on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 nice trend on NAM, hope it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Despite cold 850's and low thicknesses, surface temps are above freezing for clipper and in the 40's for eastern LI. NYC sits around 32-34 the whole time. Clown maps are reflecting this and show zero snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Lol at the nam having no clue for the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Despite cold 850's and low thicknesses, surface temps are above freezing for clipper and in the 40's for eastern LI. NYC sits around 32-34 the whole time. Clown maps are reflecting this and show zero snow accumulation. 20 knot southerly winds into the coast, just a complete killer for the boundary layer almost any time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 20 knot southerly winds into the coast, just a complete killer for the boundary layer almost any time of the year. The city is still 32-34 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 20 knot southerly winds into the coast, just a complete killer for the boundary layer almost any time of the year. Speak for yourself man. There should be a Long Beach/Barrier Island forum....your weather is unique and different than the rest of us, if a man on a kayak oofshore farts with his ass north you warm above freezing... Seriously though, i snowed till 1145 and then sleeted till about 1230 last night, while you were all rain...so who knows what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 And i believe the wind was from the S/SW last night too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Upton and Mount Holly are at it again - conflicting forecasts for the same area in central NJ Mount Holly Middlesex Coutny: FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. SATURDAY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Upton: Eastern Union County FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SATURDAY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Euro looks ovredone on the snowfall again for Saturday especially at the coast with streamlines off the water. The coastal sections would change over after some snow with smaller accumulations than the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Euro looks ovredone on the snowfall again for Saturday especially at the coast with streamlines off the water. The coastal sections would change over after some snow with smaller accumulations than the Euro is showing. The next 2 frames show the changeover. Only has accumulating snow north of the LIE and northern Queens on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The next 2 frames show the changeover. Only has accumulating snow north of the LIE and northern Queens on north. map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 map? I apologize. Just looked again. Still has accumulating snow for everyone except the immediate coast of the south shore and eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The next 2 frames show the changeover. Only has accumulating snow north of the LIE and northern Queens on north. Those wunderground Euro snowfall maps have had too much snow here since it had the big coastal NYC dump later in October that coastal sections only got a coating on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 That's not really all that different... Upton and Mount Holly are at it again - conflicting forecasts for the same area in central NJ Mount Holly Middlesex Coutny: FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. SATURDAY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Upton: Eastern Union County FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SATURDAY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I would normally trust the GFS more than the Euro on the second event but its strange phasing of those 2 disturbances just does not make sense in the 500mb we'll have, not to mention the GGEM has consistently been coming cooler and south with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Euro looks ovredone on the snowfall again for Saturday especially at the coast with streamlines off the water. The coastal sections would change over after some snow with smaller accumulations than the Euro is showing. Agreed near the coast. But I think this is a surprisingly fair depiction of what the Euro was indicating away from the immediate shore. Usually these winderground maps are tremendously overdone. But 1-3" is pretty fair from what I was looking at on stormvista. Near the shore and city it would be harder to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Euro looks ovredone on the snowfall again for Saturday especially at the coast with streamlines off the water. The coastal sections would change over after some snow with smaller accumulations than the Euro is showing. Maybe, but 4 or 5 knots wind from the SE doesn't exactly scream torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Maybe, but 4 or 5 knots wind from the SE doesn't exactly scream torch. 4 or 5 knots isn't bad, compared to 20+ knots that the NAM had for the first clipper system. That would torch anyone near the coast in a big hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 neither of these systems look remotely interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Speak for yourself man. There should be a Long Beach/Barrier Island forum....your weather is unique and different than the rest of us, if a man on a kayak oofshore farts with his ass north you warm above freezing... Seriously though, i snowed till 1145 and then sleeted till about 1230 last night, while you were all rain...so who knows what happens It sleeted here till 1ish honestly and we had front end flakes so that's completely incorrect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It sleeted here till 1ish honestly and we had front end flakes so that's completely incorrect! im pretty sure there were reports out of long beach of mainly rain, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It sleeted here till 1ish honestly and we had front end flakes so that's completely incorrect! This is you at 10:46 last night, when i was snowing. Rain to your south. Occasional flake still mixing in which is a miracle with the wind off the water. These 925 temps must really be holding!! That and just enough west in the flow over western long island to negate the ocean slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 18Z GFS coming in just a tad warmer, but also wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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