bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If these colder solutions hold serve through 12z on Friday, even the coast will have advisory criteria snows. The earlier start is what we need while it's still in the 20's Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where going to be shoveling soon !!! May we have windows like this in 48 hours of this post. In reference to Saturday's event. Maybe a real 2-5 inch event for once for NYC and LI. The clipper tonight is a SE New England event, just a flurry, light snow shower event for this local area of NYC and LI. Eastern LI may get 1/2 inch from the clipper tonight. This is the poor mans version of early Feb 1994, as this will be two much lighter events near each other. A 6-10 inch event this winter will feel like a 18-24 inch HECS when it ever happens this winter or if at all. The Saturday event will feel like a weak KU event, even though a far cry from one. Do we get a true KU event next month or early March ??? that is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It would be hilarious if NYC actually broke the daily snow record for 1/21 on Saturday in this crap hole of a winter. The record is 6.0 from 2001, we'd certainly need the event to be entirely snow to do so, I believe if we got an all snow event we'd have around a 25-30% shot at breaking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 It would be hilarious if NYC actually broke the daily snow record for 1/21 on Saturday in this crap hole of a winter. The record is 6.0 from 2001, we'd certainly need the event to be entirely snow to do so, I believe if we got an all snow event we'd have around a 25-30% shot at breaking it. Time to get the shovel out and maybe really use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 uber saturated, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 uber saturated, nice! Nice veering pattern in the lower layers and fairly isothermal with height, which is good.. I'm officially naming this the "Tornadojay Junior" storm... right on my son's first birthday.. It snowed on the day he was born last year... yep.. I still remember posting on the boards in the delivery room. We'll see if the Tornadojay streak can go on forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice veering pattern in the lower layers and fairly isothermal with height, which is good.. I'm officially naming this the "Tornadojay Junior" storm... right on my son's first birthday.. It snowed on the day he was born last year... yep.. I still remember posting on the boards in the delivery room. We'll see if the Tornadojay streak can go on forever. you named your kid TornadoJay, Jr? Im calling social services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Most of the gefs ensembles are south and colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 checking out point and click it looks like the north shore stays all snow, mid-island mixes saturday day. Typical for marginal setups, im usually, wherever i have ever lived on the island, about 2-3 miles too far south to stay all snow, yet far enough north to keep a mix going and not flip to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 checking out point and click it looks like the north shore stays all snow, mid-island mixes saturday day. Typical for marginal setups, im usually, wherever i have ever lived on the island, about 2-3 miles too far south to stay all snow, yet far enough north to keep a mix going and not flip to rain With a little luck, maybe the models continue to bring in the precip faster and end earlier before there is a chance for much precip after a changeover. It would be great if most precip was finished by 15z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This sounds like a typical early 90's set up where Joe Cioffi, on News 12 LI would bring out his map with the LIE being the dividing line... North of the LIE is a 2-5" event and south of the LIE is 1-3" and on the immediate coast 1" For years, throughout the 80's and early 90's it was always my belief that it could never snow on the south shore b/c of how these types of setups would occur.. I remember as a kid saying to myself - "wow, aren't i lucky to live North of the LIE - the south shore gets no snow" That line of thought changed forever from 1996 on... The last decade and a half have proved that this LIE dividing rule is kinda dumb.. However, in Joe Cioffi's defense, for these types of setups it appears to be some what legit.. Plus he was a great forecaster.. Even though he was a bit bullish most of the time - he made things so interesting during a time when in retrospect NOTHING was interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With a little luck, maybe the models continue to bring in the precip faster and end earlier before there is a chance for much precip after a changeover. It would be great if most precip was finished by 15z Saturday. Yeah-the faster the snow gets here and the heavier it starts out the better. Hopefully we can get it all or mostly out of here before any warming arrives. 2/22/08 was a nice event here because the snow came in like a wall. Others sucked because the dry air ate up the snow until it became too warm, or the storm overall was too far north. I'm still banking on a north bump or trend at the end with these, they almost always occur. Hopefully this can be the one that doesn't and stays south. If it does, we can all/mostly luck out with a nice 4-5 or 6" thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam is about 3 hours faster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With a little luck, maybe the models continue to bring in the precip faster and end earlier before there is a chance for much precip after a changeover. It would be great if most precip was finished by 15z Saturday. I know its silly, but verbatim, point and click you keep a mix, yet breezy point, south shore bk and SI change to rain Sat night...should be interesting to see what happens for sure. Regardless, it will all be gone by monday as it will torch and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Dont take those forecasts seriously. They always change when the models change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This sounds like a typical early 90's set up where Joe Cioffi, on News 12 LI would bring out his map with the LIE being the dividing line... North of the LIE is a 2-5" event and south of the LIE is 1-3" and on the immediate coast 1" For years, throughout the 80's and early 90's it was always my belief that it could never snow on the south shore b/c of how these types of setups would occur.. I remember as a kid saying to myself - "wow, aren't i lucky to live North of the LIE - the south shore gets no snow" That line of thought changed forever from 1996 on... The last decade and a half have proved that this LIE dividing rule is kinda dumb.. However, in Joe Cioffi's defense, for these types of setups it appears to be some what legit.. Plus he was a great forecaster.. Even though he was a bit bullish most of the time - he made things so interesting during a time when in retrospect NOTHING was interesting... The 90s in general beside 95-96 and 93-94 obviously were just atrocious here on the south shore. We seemed to have a lot more marginal type events that were slop here and probably whiter on the north shore or inland, and fewer offshore lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam is going to be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Regardless, it will all be gone by monday as it will torch and rain Thanks for the pick me up. Torch is a strong word btw the epic highs are no longer being forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks for the pick me up. Torch is a strong word btw the epic highs are no longer being forecasted. Upper 40s and rain will do the trick...and im pumped for the snow, just being realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM brings the heavier precip in much quicker, which allows it to fall as frozen before it warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice to see the models come around . I like 3- 4 in CPK . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In normal people hours, what time can we expect snow to begin...plan on drinkin fri night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is very nice for NYC. 95% of the precip falls as snow. Only at the very end, do things warms up, but by then 3"-4" have already fallen. Temps are in the upper 20's to 31, during most of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This sounds like a typical early 90's set up where Joe Cioffi, on News 12 LI would bring out his map with the LIE being the dividing line... North of the LIE is a 2-5" event and south of the LIE is 1-3" and on the immediate coast 1" For years, throughout the 80's and early 90's it was always my belief that it could never snow on the south shore b/c of how these types of setups would occur.. I remember as a kid saying to myself - "wow, aren't i lucky to live North of the LIE - the south shore gets no snow" That line of thought changed forever from 1996 on... The last decade and a half have proved that this LIE dividing rule is kinda dumb.. However, in Joe Cioffi's defense, for these types of setups it appears to be some what legit.. Plus he was a great forecaster.. Even though he was a bit bullish most of the time - he made things so interesting during a time when in retrospect NOTHING was interesting... Lol....I remember those. I always turned to him for the breakdown totals on Long Island. Where is he now? I remember him on Channel 11 a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Lol....I remember those. I always turned to him for the breakdown totals on Long Island. Where is he now? I remember him on Channel 11 a few years back. yep- he was on channel 11 a few years back.. I wish I knew where he was now... He was a solid guy.. LIke I said, he was rather bullish on all events, but he put a realistic spin on everything, as he really tailored his forecasts for the Long Island environment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 How much snow fell, i think Feb 22, 2011 - last year... Anyone remember or have a NWS outline of totals.. And yea- i may be off w/ the date.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Beuller? Timeline for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 How much snow fell, i think Feb 22, 2011 - last year... Anyone remember or have a NWS outline of totals.. And yea- i may be off w/ the date.. 3-5 inches except if you were on the immediate south shore aka metfan land. That was also late February and it warmed up into the upper 30's during the day. This snow should look better if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Beuller? Timeline for this? NAM has it snowing by 4am Saturday morning and lasting until 2pm Saturday afternoon. Most of it 4am through 10am though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM has it snowing by 4am Saturday morning and lasting until 2pm Saturday afternoon. Most of it 4am through 10am though. Cool. thanks man. Nam's bread and butter is inside 48 hours right? so we are close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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