tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 HPC indicating zero chance of a four inch snowfall for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is definitely a bit south of its 00z run so far...but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Better at 60...but nothing like the other globals. Snow depth change maps are good away from the coast in N NJ. Looks like 1" in the city through 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Took a step in the rite direction,thats all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Took a step in the rite direction,thats all that matters. It's funny...because the 850's might actually be a hair warmer than the 00z run initially. But it's farther southeast with the surface low...going in the direction of the 00z globals from tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 definitely trended south..the low is south of 00z and the precip arrives alittle earlier but its not much colder..We still need another bump south from the nam though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's funny...because the 850's might actually be a hair warmer than the 00z run initially. But it's farther southeast with the surface low...going in the direction of the 00z globals from tonight. Nams always playing catchup,its always late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You look at 700rh though and gotta wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 John,did you see the sref individuals?id take most of these... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Despite the poor looking thicknesses the NAM is snow through 60 hours and the event is ending by then. Here's the precipitation type at 60 hours. But notice on the radar depiction that the storm is almost over. By this time around 0.40" has fallen...depending on where you are. Radar: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_6z/rad60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Finally...here's the rough snow map from ewall. 2-4" for everybody...more inland. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4US_6z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro ensemble mean in very good agreement with the operational. Almost identical at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Forecast at a Glance by NWS for my area looking good for a change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Forecast at a Glance by NWS for my area looking good for a change... Ouch... Near 40 everyday! smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Forecast at a Glance by NWS for my area looking good for a change... Wish they would put the qualifier 'light' for tonight. Makes it sound like a significant accumulating snowfall is coming tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wish they would put the qualifier 'light' for tonight. Makes it sound like a significant accumulating snowfall is coming tonight. I'm surprised they have pops that high in the grids to be honest. The models are getting drier and drier as we approach that "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Quick look at the 06Z RGEM shows precip. starting as snow late Friday as far south as D.C. Do not tell Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FWIW local on the 8's says 1-2" Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Is 4-6 inches in the realm of possibility for NYC and LI as of the latest models. Any more QPF and colder solutions out here ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Finally...here's the rough snow map from ewall. 2-4" for everybody...more inland. http://www.meteo.psu...S_6z/snow60.gif the ewall totals seem a bit high compared to instant wx maps and SV....and especially since the 850 runs north of NYC in the first few hours of the event (and before the main brunt of precip moves in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 06Z RGEM Precip Types, hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS largely holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Gfs came a tad north and little warmer at 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just about .5" QPF for KNYC. (Mostly if not all snow) But a tick warmer 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hows the surface on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6Z GFS is all frozen snow to start and then mixing the last 1/4 to 1/2 of the storm in NYC metro accumulations closer to the coast 2 inches up to 5 just north and west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Upton is being kind of bearish for the Saturday event. They say that the GFS and Euro only deliver sub-advisory level snowfall (less than 3") for NYC. I'm a bit baffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Upton is being kind of bearish for the Saturday event. They say that the GFS and Euro only deliver sub-advisory level snowfall (less than 3") for NYC. I'm a bit baffled. Upton is always conservative at first BUT the snow will start accumulating right away since the start time is early in the day and temps below freezing - so more then likely advisories will be issued because the roads will become snow covered and slippery fast since its saturday morning with much less traffic then normal.and public works departments don t react as quickly as during the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Upton is always conservative at first BUT the snow will start accumulating right away since the start time is early in the day and temps below freezing - so more then likely advisories will be issued because the roads will become snow covered and slippery fast since its saturday morning with much less traffic then normal.and public works departments don t react as quickly as during the week That's reasonable from Upton; however, Bill Evans on ABC is giving this second event the middle finger. On his snowfall map this morning, he essentially drew the 1" contour well N&W of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 snowgoose mentioned that tactic last year for 1 of the storms and atown took it to the grave, lol. I knew someone would mention that 00Z NOGAPS, if this was still 5-6 days out I'd be more concerned, but given we're quite close now I think we can ignore the NOGAPS being where its at. Also the NOGAPS was not necessarily more amplified, it was just warmer, had it been notably more phased at 500mb that would be a red flag more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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