LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just checked the 0z GFS ensemble members and all of them are south and cold for our area. Thats solid. Exactly what I need here... looks like there will finally be a nice snowy beach this weekend! Like I said last night when this bipolar board was in a down phase south and are solid after the event earlier this week despite much worse synoptics still delivered some surprise frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Come on maps! Hopefully 6z doesn't mirror 18z runs Those seem to be a decently fair representation of what the Euro shows, to be honest. They are generally too bullish near the coast, though. So keep that in mind. But for NJ/SE NY and probably even to a certain extent NYC...those are pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Those seem to be a decently fair representation of what the Euro shows, to be honest. They are generally too bullish near the coast, though. So keep that in mind. But for NJ/SE NY and probably even to a certain extent NYC...those are pretty reasonable. Yeah, seems to me they usually don't take the ocean into effect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FIM is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FIM is on board It is very fast... precip begins several hours faster than all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It will definitely be interesting to see the SREF's now at 245. The NAM was very far north compared to all other 00z global guidance. Also...pay very close attention to any potential north bumps through the next 24 hours. They are a well known trait of SWFEs. In the last five + years I have only seen two SWFE type events that didn't trend north over the last 48 hours..and they both occurred during a period of strong blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It will definitely be interesting to see the SREF's now at 245. The NAM was very far north compared to all other 00z global guidance. Also...pay very close attention to any potential north bumps through the next 24 hours. They are a well known trait of SWFEs. In the last five + years I have only seen two SWFE type events that didn't trend north over the last 48 hours..and they both occurred during a period of strong blocking. yeah that's why im hoping we see an even further south trend tomorrow to counter that last minute bump north..But i guess what could be in our favor with no blocking is the progressive pattern and no time for this wave to amplify, so hopefully this thing just races east under those nice high pressures and we stay all snow. It would be a great sign to see the srefs go colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah that's why im hoping we see an even further south trend tomorrow to counter that last minute bump north..But i guess what could be in our favor with no blocking is the progressive pattern and no time for this wave to amplify, so hopefully this thing just races east under those nice high pressures and we stay all snow. It would be a great sign to see the srefs go colder I think the AO crashing might help us out in the end. Time will tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nobody posted rthe COAMPS yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 How is the Euro in regards to the clipper? Nobody posted rthe COAMPS yet? Anything interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think the AO crashing might help us out in the end. Time will tell though. Again..that has very little impact on our storm system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nobody posted rthe COAMPS yet? I was leaving the honors to you. What I am really am shocked about is that we didn't have the NOGAPS dude come in and post details about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was leaving the honors to you. What I am really am shocked about is that we didn't have the NOGAPS dude come in and post details about it. Probably because the NOGAPS was pretty north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Probably because the NOGAPS was pretty north. As the NOGAPS guy would say "when the NGP is north or amplified, it is a red flag". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can someone run the NGM from their computer or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It will definitely be interesting to see the SREF's now at 245. The NAM was very far north compared to all other 00z global guidance. Also...pay very close attention to any potential north bumps through the next 24 hours. They are a well known trait of SWFEs. In the last five + years I have only seen two SWFE type events that didn't trend north over the last 48 hours..and they both occurred during a period of strong blocking. Really believe that a north bump is likely in the end, even if only marginal. That would all but insure that this becomes a primarily liquid event for the coastal plain. Hoping against that. However, the lack of upstream blocking is worrisome, as is the 60+ hour time frame which gives ample time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I know the focus is on the weekend system. However, the 00z GFS looks about as awful as it's been all season in the mid and long range. If this weekend's snow is a swing and a miss, it may be a long time before another chance comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 As the NOGAPS guy would say "when the NGP is north or amplified, it is a red flag". snowgoose mentioned that tactic last year for 1 of the storms and atown took it to the grave, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I wonder what Euro control run shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 srefs appear south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 srefs appear south. It's south and colder. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F19%2F2012+03UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+MEANSPRD&pname=mslp&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=066&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 SREFs are great...way south from the previous runs. Colder at all levels...good amount of precip. Looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's south and colder. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M sweet..i dont wanna jinx it but its pretty much a lock that the nam comes in south, cold, and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sweet..i dont wanna jinx it but its pretty much a lock that the nam comes in south, cold, and snowy. You jinxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You jinxed it. The NAM isn't south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM isn't south? Big time fail,blame it on cool;) in seriousness its not even out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You jinxed it. we need trials to reverse the jinx lol..but really, out to hr 27. Nam is due for a 6z qpf explosion so lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Big time fail,blame it on cool;) in seriousness its not even out yet. Ok - I thought it wasn't out yet, but earthlight gets pretty quick access. Going to bed - will check back in the morning hoping for similar runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i forgot how much of a grind it is watching the nam roll out. this model is sooo slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can someone run the NGM from their computer or something? Just let me set my time machine for 1999... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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