ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0z gefs certainly followed the op. Well south and very cold. It's pretty dry though and only brings in about .15"-.20" of precip. But regardless, a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 UKMET is still a bit warm for NYC, but certainly much better. Most of the precip is over by this point, but the peak of the warming, I think, occurred a few hours earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ...gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Laughable changes on the GEFS. I'd hold the excitement here as a precaution. For one...these events can bump north at the last second very often. I've seen it even inside 12 hrs. Second, there is very little blocking to stop it. Third, remember that the mid levels can be a real devil in these setups. That being said...if the shortwave to the north over Southeast Canada does verify as modeled...it's going to snow on Saturday and we'll have our first light to moderate snowfall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 00Z nam profiles are colder for Long Island, with all snow to about 11am Saturday. Not for nothing but the NAM shifted a good amount south as well. It isnt as cold as the 0z GFS but a huge improvement from 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow, what drastic changes. I guess the globals are hopefully beginning to see something that can hold the temps down and bring the low to the south. All in all, we will still see snow somehow some way unless crazy wild stuff happens. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00Z MOS has increased the QPF for snowfall up slightly from the previous run for Saturday. Good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The models bringing more qpf before 12z Sat. is what's helping us out here, the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow at the changes at 0z. I def thought mid levels would trend warmer with maybe colder surface temps if we're lucky but this is a bit ridiculous. Not getting too excited yet and we all know the 6z run will show some bizarre solution lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00Z MOS has increased the QPF for snowfall up slightly from the previous run for Saturday. Good sign! Brings a nice snowfall Friday Night alone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The models bringing more qpf before 12z Sat. is what's helping us out here, the most. The fact that the surface low has trended south by a hundred miles doesn't hurt, either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Brings a nice snowfall Friday Night alone: Thanks for the graphic. I like it and bring it on, please.. old man winter. We deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You can add the JMA to the big shift south and cold also. Precip is a little light though. About .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 UKMET Total Precip. from 12Z Friday to 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Through 54 hours the Euro is a good bit south of its 12z run. It doesn't look like it will end up as cold as the GFS or GGEM, yet. We will see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Way colder than 12z...snow through 72 hours. Might be a brief period of changeover..but the 850 0c line doesn't make it to Staten Island. At 66 hours during the heaviest precip it runs from Trenton due east through the Central NJ shore. 2m temps in the 20's to start...warming to low to mid 30's and then dropping into the 20's again. Total QPF from both systems is near 0.5" at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Through 54 hours the Euro is a good bit south of its 12z run. It doesn't look like it will end up as cold as the GFS or GGEM, yet. We will see where this goes. Thanks - was just going to ask if the Euro still comes out around 1:00 am or not, lol. Been awhile since I cared about a 0Z Euro run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Solid trends tonight boys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Way colder than 12z...snow through 72 hours. Might be a brief period of changeover..but the 850 0c line doesn't make it to Staten Island. At 66 hours during the heaviest precip it runs from Trenton due east through the Central NJ shore. 2m temps in the 20's to start...warming to low to mid 30's and then dropping into the 20's again. Total QPF from both systems is near 0.5" at 72 hrs. yup nice analysis. We start out as light snow early saturday morning, and as weathergun said before, it would help cool the column early before the good precip arrives..This is an awesome run and trend tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Pretty much a complete 00z model run consensus, hopefully this becomes solidified throughout the next few runs. Nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Great trend tonight! But a lot can change, so let's hope it stays steady for now. I know I'm a bit north of you guys, but I would love to share the snow love with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wunderground snow maps show a solid 3"-6" area wide, except for ocean beaches which are 1"-3". NYC is around 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just checked the 0z GFS ensemble members and all of them are south and cold for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wunderground snow maps show a solid 3"-6" area wide, except for ocean beaches which are 1"-3". NYC is around 5". Looks like the R/S line on those maps is literally just south of Staten Island.. Nonetheless a nice advisory event maybe even a low end warning event for favored areas away from the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wunderground snow maps show a solid 3"-6" area wide, except for ocean beaches which are 1"-3". NYC is around 5". 850 line does not get north of Coney Island, 32 degree surface temps cuts right through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A warm welcome to the overnight crew...for our first meeting this winter. To kick things off, I present to you...the 00z Euro clown maps from weather underground. 60 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/MITGS.png 63 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/xaRrT.png 66 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/OpI5r.png 69 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/yi6xy.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A warm welcome to the overnight crew...for our first meeting this winter. To kick things off, I present to you...the 00z Euro clown maps from weather underground. 60 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/MITGS.png 63 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/xaRrT.png 66 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/OpI5r.png 69 hrs: http://i.imgur.com/yi6xy.png Come on maps! Hopefully 6z doesn't mirror 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00Z KMA Hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 KMA is on board ( I think ). Hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 KMA is on board ( I think ). Hard to tell. Yes, literally painful to look at, albeit not as painful as the 18z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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