snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0z NAM is alot colder both aloft as well as on the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 0z NAM adds sleet/freezing rain into the picture for north/west areas this run... with hour 69, 850mb temps are above freezing, but surface temps are still slightly below freezing. The freezing rain also ends up affecting southern CT and SE NY this run. It's still too far out to know exactly who gets any sleet/freezing rain, and it's still the NAM's longer range so it could change, but it does highlight that the potential could be there for sleet/freezing rain to become involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Low levels trending cold is a distinct possibility which I alluded to yesterday. Notice the disconnect now between the 850mb 0c line and the 0c 2m temp. The mid levels can warm very easily in this set up...while the boundary layer cold can sometimes over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The NAM is not that useful after 54hrs. It does show some potential cold air daming up to that point. The GFS tends to under estermate CAD so at this point I think NYC may see an inch of snow before the change over to ice and then rain later on. In summary a messy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Low levels trending cold is a distinct possibility which I alluded to yesterday. Notice the disconnect now between the 850mb 0c line and the 0c 2m temp. The mid levels can warm very easily in this set up...while the boundary layer cold can sometimes over perform. I could see this trending closer to SWFE climo, but I hope not as well. Even up this way, the mid levels may warm well into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Usually when ct coast is 32 on the models im zr here on the north shore of long island,I really dont want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 0z NAM adds sleet/freezing rain into the picture for north/west areas this run... with hour 69, 850mb temps are above freezing, but surface temps are still slightly below freezing. The freezing rain also ends up affecting southern CT and SE NY this run. It's still too far out to know exactly who gets any sleet/freezing rain, and it's still the NAM's longer range so it could change, but it does highlight that the potential could be there for sleet/freezing rain to become involved. Snow to Sleet as per the 0z NAM.. Surface temps never get above the low 20's http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Klga only gets to 33.4 on the nam...and im willing to bet this trends colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow to Sleet as per the 0z NAM.. Surface temps never get above the low 20's http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kmgj.txt The soundings on Twisterdata keep Orange county with sleet, although there's probably freezing rain involved somewhere with this storm on this run. The 925mb/surface temps are much colder this run, even 18z Thursday still looks like sleet and/or freezing rain in NE NJ despite 850mb temps near 2-3C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I feel like I've seen this setup a thousand times... 6 inches in KLEB, Snow quick to Sleet and probably staying that way in KNYC... We'll see if that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00Z RGEM barely has measurable precip. with the clipper for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That's cold 950's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Klga only gets to 33.4 on the nam...and im willing to bet this trends colder. Just a degree and a half colder and we are guaranteed a long period of sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I could see this trending closer to SWFE climo, but I hope not as well. Even up this way, the mid levels may warm well into CT. Id be willing to bet it trends that way. Weve both seen this synoptic setup (generally) a million times. The shortwave to the north over southeast Canada could be a bit of a wild card in this set up. It looks like the higher res models are trying to develop a cooler surface flow while precip is still ongoing. The NAM cools things towards the end too. Just something to watch. This area just isn't favored in these type of events at all. The mid levels warm way too fast...I'll always see more sleet and rain than snow in this setup..that is gaurunteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Id be willing to bet it trends that way. Weve both seen this synoptic setup (generally) a million times. The shortwave to the north over southeast Canada could be a bit of a wild card in this set up. It looks like the higher res models are trying to develop a cooler surface flow while precip is still ongoing. The NAM cools things towards the end too. Just something to watch. This area just isn't favored in these type of events at all. The mid levels warm way too fast...I'll always see more sleet and rain than snow in this setup..that is gaurunteed. I said it before, this is likely one where Boston and SNE start to rack up their snow totals while we watch with an icy mix and/or rain. We just have to hope the precip arrives fast enough and heavy enough before it goes to crap aloft. Miracles can happen at NYC's latitude but they're rare. This looks like a number of the 07-08 type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Id be willing to bet it trends that way. Weve both seen this synoptic setup (generally) a million times. The shortwave to the north over southeast Canada could be a bit of a wild card in this set up. It looks like the higher res models are trying to develop a cooler surface flow while precip is still ongoing. The NAM cools things towards the end too. Just something to watch. This area just isn't favored in these type of events at all. The mid levels warm way too fast...I'll always see more sleet and rain than snow in this setup..that is gaurunteed. It's the achiles heel of Mt. Earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00Z GFS slightly colder at 48 hours. 2M temps in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's the achiles heel of Mt. Earthlight. Definitely. When we had the winters in 06/07/08/09 when there were more SWFE's than sunny days...I routinely came in with the lowest totals of anybody. No complaints though...I have had it coming for a while...I'm surprised it's taken this long to get some SWFE's going. Climo, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The GFS is way farther south with the surface low at 54 hours compared to 60 hours on the 18z run. Everything is shifted south by 50-100 miles. The shortwave and height field are less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow for everybody at 57 hrs...850 0c line is still on the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Holy crap, snowstorm at 60 hours. 850 0c line looks to near Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow. Gfs is amazing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Holy crap, snowstorm at 60 hours. 850 0c line looks to near Philly. Ahem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOLZ, GFS gives us all something to dream about tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Freezing line and 0c 850 line does not pass nyc..snowstorm wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow gfs!!!haha please be rite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow. Gfs is amazing, initialization errors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Utter disbelief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ahem... What, you moved to phillly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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