MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 EURO,UKIE, NAM, and GFS. Only the JMA trended colder. Short of some initial light snow, NYC is rain. NYC is rain on most of the models but not after some snow. I don't know about all of you but if I see 1-3 inches from this storm, I will be a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Did I ever say a decent snowstorm? I just said don't model hug any model right now. Models have been trending warmer? Which one? Most likely it will be snow to rain but it's only Wednesday. ECM & GFS... I do not even bother to truly look into the GGEM.... The two major models have been trending warmer..mid levels...and even surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 ECM & GFS... I do not even bother to truly look into the GGEM.... The two major models have been trending warmer..mid levels...and even surface... ECM is basically the same except for a little north nudge and it's the 18z GFS. Lets wait until the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NYC is rain on most of the models but not after some snow. I don't know about all of you but if I see 1-3 inches from this storm, I will be a happy camper. But you won't see 1-3" and even if my some miraculous event you do, it will be largely washed away but rain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well as much as I love staten island I'm going up to the poconos this weekend and im wondering what to expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well as much as I love staten island I'm going up to the poconos this weekend and im wondering what to expect Bring your sled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The mid and low levels continue to trend warmer (not the boundary layer quite yet) during the period of potential wintry weather on the front end of the system. This is not a very favorable setup for our area..so whatever winter precipitation we can get out of it would be nice. Obviously the chances for something go up the farther north you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 But you won't see 1-3" and even if my some miraculous event you do, it will be largely washed away but rain anyway. Still counts as a snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 But you won't see 1-3" and even if my some miraculous event you do, it will be largely washed away but rain anyway. Dude. Who cares? Honestly, if he wants 1-3 then let him be happy. i just dont get why you post? I mean im not expecting a lot of snow, but we all agree that anything is welcome. It was said on this board recently that the negativity needs to end, but just trying to prove to someone that their snow will be washed away is pretty negative and lame. Im happy with a ****ing dusting. Are you going to rip me now and say, well my dusting will get washed away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The event is 3 days away. There isn't any concensus yet. Concensus is not dependent on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Dude. Who cares? Honestly, if he wants 1-3 then let him be happy. i just dont get why you post? I mean im not expecting a lot of snow, but we all agree that anything is welcome. It was said on this board recently that the negativity needs to end, but just trying to prove to someone that their snow will be washed away is pretty negative and lame. Im happy with a ****ing dusting. Are you going to rip me now and say, well my dusting will get washed away? I will also be happy with a dusting. The GEFS are cooler than the op but sligthly warmer than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Dude. Who cares? Honestly, if he wants 1-3 then let him be happy. i just dont get why you post? I mean im not expecting a lot of snow, but we all agree that anything is welcome. It was said on this board recently that the negativity needs to end, but just trying to prove to someone that their snow will be washed away is pretty negative and lame. Im happy with a ****ing dusting. Are you going to rip me now and say, well my dusting will get washed away? Well, if you get one, it will be. I am usually very optimistic but seeing a bunch of wishcasts isn't any better and is (obviously) making me bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well, if you get one, it will be. I am usually very optimistic but seeing a bunch of wishcasts isn't any better and is (obviously) making me bitter. I'm not sure what you're seeing as a wishcast. It's not like snow that is washed away by rain doesn't count as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Upton ( clipper ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm not sure what you're seeing as a wishcast. It's not like snow that is washed away by rain doesn't count as snow. Obviously but when people say the models haven't trended warmer, or "oh its 3 days away it will change" is certainly wishcasting. I really do hope it snows but come on, look at the pattern and look at the models, other then NW burbs I think there isn't much hope to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Upton ( clipper ) Nice... 1/2 inch IMBY. When was the last time SE CT was the winner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Question: in Saturdays scenario what type of snow crystals would you expect if we did get snow, dendrites? And one more thing Eric sorry for being harsh I did deserve to get that post removed but could you please stop being so negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Once again in the11-15 day and beyond, the PNA may become increasingly -. If that happens, we need to watch up north, as the NAO will try to go negative too. I think you guys really should hope that happens, as it could be gradient city with the arctic cold out in western Canada again. Lets hope the -NAO happens, because we'll need it I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Once again in the11-15 day and beyond, the PNA may become increasingly -. If that happens, we need to watch up north, as the NAO will try to go negative too. I think you guys really should hope that happens, as it could be gradient city with the arctic cold out in western Canada again. Lets hope the -NAO happens, because we'll need it I think. Oh so the cold and stormy pattern may only be 11 days away? Sounds familiar...wash, rinse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Question: in Saturdays scenario what type of snow crystals would you expect if we did get snow, dendrites? Temperatures should be in the range for plates when snow does fall. When the air over a cloud droplet is supersaturated (relative humidity greater than 100 percent), the vapor pressure of the air is greater than the saturation vapor pressure on the droplet's surface. In such an environment, water droplets grow by vapor deposition; more water vapor molecules are condensing to the droplet than are evaporating from it. Greater supersaturation occurs in stronger storm updrafts because the process of vapor deposition cannot keep up with the decompressional cooling with ascent. Ice crystals in the presence of abundant cloud droplets are said to be supersaturated with respect to ice even though relative humidity may only be 100 percent. This is because the saturation vapor pressure over ice is less than that over water, allowing vapor deposition onto the ice. http://meteorology.g...supersaturation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks for the link I had posted this link in the past, but I'll post it again, as it's an excellent summary in determining precip type with some simple sounding examples... good reference stuff here... http://www.crh.noaa....precip_type.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Oh so the cold and stormy pattern may only be 11 days away? Sounds familiar...wash, rinse.. I'm not suggesting that. Just that before everyone gets too excited, there are things to think about going forward. Hopefully in Feb the NAO continues more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Question: in Saturdays scenario what type of snow crystals would you expect if we did get snow, dendrites? And one more thing Eric sorry for being harsh I did deserve to get that post removed but could you please stop being so negative. I'm just tired of people trying to look at a model and trying to twist it into something more beneficial for snow, hoping it will "trend" better. I am usually overly optimistic with snowstorms but in this case its looking like a complete failure based on the general feel of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm just tired of people trying to look at a model and trying to twist it into something more beneficial for snow, hoping it will "trend" better. I am usually overly optimistic with snowstorms but in this case its looking like a complete failure based on the general feel of guidance. Definitely give it more time, because things have had big changes even within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Definitely give it more time, because things have had big changes even within 48 hours. Generally trending warmer this year though, not colder. This could end up an all rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 SREFsies are pretty ugly...not much of a change from what they've shown all along though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 SREFsies are pretty ugly...not much of a change from what they've shown all along though. is the the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 SREFsies are pretty ugly...not much of a change from what they've shown all along though. Which storm is this for? 21z SREFs on E Wall haven't updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Which storm is this for? 21z SREFs on E Wall haven't updated yet. NCEP has them Its bad and he is talking about the swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2nd storm is decently south of the NAM... definitely starts out with snow in NYC, although it still has a relatively warm look to it so a changeover to rain still likely this run IMO. Interesting though how the ECM/GFS are trending north while the NAM is trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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