Nikolai Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 this is a situation where I am actually optimistic, as the models will ALWAYS underdo CAD... even if we only see 3-6" of snow, I'll be quite happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 this is a situation where I am actually optimistic, as the models will ALWAYS underdo CAD... even if we only see 3-6" of snow, I'll be quite happy. Especially considering the vortex is close enough to pump down some cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 this is a situation where I am actually optimistic, as the models will ALWAYS underdo CAD... even if we only see 3-6" of snow, I'll be quite happy. Yes, and it has been underdone moreso recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS still looks like a dusting to possibly half inch with the clipper tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS still looks like a dusting to possibly half inch with the clipper tomorrow night. Noticeably drier than the last run though. Probably going to be dusting in NYC from this one IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 And here comes the north trend on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS is really ugly for most interests in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 RH fields are near 100 at hour 57 with the precip still back in PA. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F18%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=057&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 And here comes the north trend on the 18z GFS. Yeah through 66 its warmer but precip is also alot faster to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah through 66 its warmer but precip is also alot faster to move in. Hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like a rainstorm on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like a rainstorm on the 18z GFS It's most likely snow or sleet to rain. Onto the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hour 66 It's the 18z, so I'll wait until 0z to see if there is a trend. Warmest run of all the guidance it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's most likely snow or sleet to rain. Onto the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SAT 12Z 21-JAN 1.9 0.1 1016 90 98 0.09 556 543 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 3.9 3.2 1008 98 99 0.35 554 547 SUN 00Z 22-JAN -0.7 1.7 1018 86 10 0.05 555 541 18 Z GFS text output for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It looks like the Euro ensemble mean agrees with the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Look at the 10c line almost to ACY! (on the GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not that there was ever that much hope, but game over, maybe we get lucky with more sleet before a rainstorm, but that is about the best we could hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not that there was ever that much hope, but game over, maybe we get lucky with more sleet before a rainstorm, but that about the best we could hope for. So you're basing the outcome on the 18z run? lol. The storm hasn't even hit land yet. Still some time. More model flip flopping coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not that there was ever that much hope, but game over, maybe we get lucky with more sleet before a rainstorm, but that is about the best we could hope for. dude you are crazy. If it was only the 18z GFS showing snow, youd say, the model sucks, one run, etc...now you put everything on it? Grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hey if I saw a couple flakes and sleet the other day with blasting onshore winds then I think its safe to say the EVERYONE in the nyc met will see snow at the start this time around. The key is at the start after that its probably an inch of slush down here going up progressively from there as you head north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 So you're basing the outcome on the 18z run? lol. The storm hasn't even hit land yet. Still some time. More model flip flopping coming up. No, the Euro, UK, NAM, NOGAPS, and others. More model concensus as we approach the event, not flip flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No, the Euro, UK, NAM, NOGAPS, and others. More model concensus as we approach the event, not flip flopping. The event is 3 days away. There isn't any concensus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 dude you are crazy. If it was only the 18z GFS showing snow, youd say, the model sucks, one run, etc...now you put everything on it? Grow up. What run other then yesterdays 12z EMCWF really showed a decent snowstorm? 2" before rain doesn't constitute a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The event is 3 days away. There isn't any concensus yet. Models have been trending warmer... You need to look beyond the surface map... Soundings indicate a change to rain in NYC ..if not almost all rain on the latest 18 Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What run other then yesterdays 12z EMCWF really showed a decent snowstorm? 2" before rain doesn't constitute a snowstorm. Did I ever say a decent snowstorm? I just said don't model hug any model right now. Models have been trending warmer... You need to look beyond the surface map... Soundings indicate a change to rain in NYC ..if not almost all rain on the latest 18 Z GFS... Models have been trending warmer? Which one? Most likely it will be snow to rain but it's only Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The event is 3 days away. There isn't any concensus yet. No, but they're getting closer. I hope it snows as much as you do but there is no need to get excited about nothing. Best case scenario now is 2" before rain, its pretty clear. The inside of us can hope for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Models have been trending warmer... You need to look beyond the surface map... Soundings indicate a change to rain in NYC ..if not almost all rain on the latest 18 Z GFS... Yeah.. I even flip over to some ip/zr at the very end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Did I ever say a decent snowstorm? I just said don't model hug any model right now. Models have been trending warmer? Which one? Most likely it will be snow to rain but it's only Wednesday. But I will hug the 80+% of the models that show rain, it is a lot more sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Did I ever say a decent snowstorm? I just said don't model hug any model right now. Models have been trending warmer? Which one? Most likely it will be snow to rain but it's only Wednesday. EURO,UKIE, NAM, and GFS. Only the JMA trended colder. Short of some initial light snow, NYC is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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