ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lovely. I'll be praying throughout this event or lack-thereof that we avoid the south winds. Even last winter those killed us from time to time when coastal fronts would barely pass over us and wreck the snowcover. Euro is similar to last night and previous runs. Yes, its a bit north, but its also 2-3 hours slower with the WAA snows. Minor differences from run to run. Precip onset wont be nailed down until inside if 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro is similar to last night and previous runs. Yes, its a bit north, but its also 2-3 hours slower with the WAA snows. Minor differences from run to run. Precip onset wont be nailed down until inside if 18 hours. I'd rather it be faster obviously, which is usually what takes place in fast Nina patterns like these. However, it won't do much good if the cold/dry initial air eats up the snow unless it comes in as a wall. Still, these events are hard to nail down for us in any year, and I wouldn't get excited for at least another day or so. I could still see some ticks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 StnID: khpn Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 120118/1500Z 3 31017KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120118/1800Z 6 31017KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120118/2100Z 9 32014KT 26.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120119/0000Z 12 34007KT 21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120119/0300Z 15 02005KT 20.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120119/0600Z 18 36005KT 20.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120119/0900Z 21 36004KT 20.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120119/1200Z 24 03004KT 19.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120119/1500Z 27 13005KT 23.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120119/1800Z 30 16009KT 31.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120119/2100Z 33 17009KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120120/0000Z 36 17008KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120120/0300Z 39 19009KT 31.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 120120/0600Z 42 23009KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 120120/0900Z 45 26009KT 28.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 120120/1200Z 48 31012KT 21.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120120/1500Z 51 32012KT 24.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0| 0 120120/1800Z 54 31011KT 28.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120120/2100Z 57 30008KT 25.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120121/0000Z 60 32006KT 23.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120121/0300Z 63 VRB02KT 23.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120121/0600Z 66 VRB01KT 23.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120121/0900Z 69 VRB02KT 24.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120121/1200Z 72 10004KT 25.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120121/1500Z 75 06007KT 27.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0 120121/1800Z 78 02009KT 27.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217 11:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0 120121/2100Z 81 36009KT 23.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 11:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 120122/0000Z 84 36007KT 23.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 11:1| 4.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 KLGA 12zGFS 120121/0900Z 69 15003KT 29.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120121/1200Z 72 12005KT 31.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120121/1500Z 75 08005KT 35.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 30| 0| 70 120121/1800Z 78 03009KT 35.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.224 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 0| 0|100 120121/2100Z 81 36014KT 30.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.047 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.38 0| 0|100 120122/0000Z 84 36011KT 28.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 KLGA 12z NAM 120121/1400Z 74 09007KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120121/1500Z 75 10008KT 35.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 120121/1600Z 76 11008KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 120121/1700Z 77 11007KT 38.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 120121/1800Z 78 11008KT 38.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120121/1900Z 79 10007KT 39.6F RA39.6F IN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100 120121/2000Z 80 08005KT RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 120121/2100Z 81 06005KT 39.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0|100 120121/2200Z 82 05005KT 38.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100 120121/2300Z 83 05005KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100 120122/0000Z 84 06005KT 37.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SREFS got a bit better for the clipper. Brings the .10" line into Queens now and almost into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SREFS got a bit better for the clipper. Brings the .10" line into Queens now and almost into NYC. It also seems to say the precip will fall as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It also seems to say the precip will fall as rain. Surface temps are 33-35 in the City. Higher as you go east. But all other levels are well below zero. If anything, snow will be falling, but will have a hard time accumulating on the island and around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It also seems to say the precip will fall as rain. No way. Maybe on the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SREF probs have also come way south for the Saturday event. Nothing to write home about, but a couple hundred mile shift south on this run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_15z/f12s78.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No way. Maybe on the beaches. Check the P-Type percentages... it might not make sense given its temperature predictions, but the chance of rain is higher than that of snow on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Check the P-Type percentages... it might not make sense given its temperature predictions, but the chance of rain is higher than that of snow on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Anyone see the new NAM? Any changes? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Anyone see the new NAM? Any changes? Rossi Its only out to 42. Clipper looks weak and pretty dry for NYC. Edit: Looks like the .10" line is from eastern Nassau County and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Its only out to 42. Clipper looks weak and pretty dry for NYC. Edit: Looks like the .10" line is from eastern Nassau County and east. No need to edit, its dry. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM is definately cooler than the 12z run for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM is definately cooler than the 12z run for Saturday. It's very warm though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's very warm though.... Very is an understatement, I'm just saying its quite a bit cooler than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM is definately cooler than the 12z run for Saturday. The NAM trended quite a bit cooler actually. It's still warm, but it's trending, which is the key detail here. Compare to 12z at 75 hours, and you will see the 850 mb temperatures are significantly warmer on 12z than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Significantly warmer? I barely see any difference save for the more consolidated precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It is much cooler but not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 its cooler but only slightly.. Precip is more consolidated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 its cooler but only slightly.. Precip is more consolidated though. Its colder, its not, it is - who cares its the NAM and its 3 days away. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SAT 12Z 21-JAN 0.6 -5.4 1022 74 98 0.06 557 539 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 4.1 0.6 1014 96 94 0.20 558 547 SUN 00Z 22-JAN 0.2 1.7 1017 90 81 0.21 560 547 Text output from the 12 Z ECM for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On the 18z NAM, at 12z Sat 700mb - 925mb RH values are higher than the 12z run. Also the LLJ is stronger. A good sign, we'll probably see precip breakout before 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Its colder, its not, it is - who cares its the NAM and its 3 days away. Rossi This is also true. We'll see where it goes...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The NAM trended quite a bit cooler actually. It's still warm, but it's trending, which is the key detail here. Compare to 12z at 75 hours, and you will see the 850 mb temperatures are significantly warmer on 12z than 18z. It's the NAM's longer range, not surprising at all that it's still trending south. IMO the NAM is still a bit too far north, although the other models, including the ECM which until now still showed a snowstorm for the suburbs of NYC, are slowly getting a bit warmer, and based alone on my experience with model trends, I think that the models could converge somewhere around a scenario where central New England gets the most snow, with some light snow changing to rain in NYC and more snow in SNE ending as mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's the NAM's longer range, not surprising at all that it's still trending south. IMO the NAM is still a bit too far north, although the other models, including the ECM which until now still showed a snowstorm for the suburbs of NYC, are slowly getting a bit warmer, and based alone on my experience with model trends, I think that the models could converge somewhere around a scenario where central New England gets the most snow, with some light snow changing to rain in NYC and more snow in SNE ending as mixing. The majority of the models trended colder today for the NYC area... in fact the only model not to trend colder was the ECMWF, and that stayed the same from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18Z RGEM Total Snow with the first clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The majority of the models trended colder today for the NYC area... in fact the only model not to trend colder was the ECMWF, and that stayed the same from 00z. Yeah, I just looked a bit more closely and the GFS did trend slightly south (so did NAM, CMC seems about the same), although it doesn't look likely IMO that this goes far south enough to become the snowstorm that yesterday's ECM run had. It's still probably going to snow though as there's still enough cold air ahead of the storm so that some snow will likely fall before any changeover, which even the NAM appears to slowly trend towards with its latest run with snow for NE NJ at hour 69 along with cold surface temps throughout most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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