TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:01 PM, earthlight said: No..they did...they were screaming for sleet. Only Steve d. And Jb didn't see it. That storm never had a chance with 850 low in Ohio. Of course Upton blew the low level cold and had flood watches up. N winds at surface on 2/14 with a 1040 HP its not raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:02 PM, jiksports said: Then we have to deal with all those people running around screaming "it's hailing, it's hailing!" I saw 3 (three) facebook statuses a few nights ago which said "it's hailing in winter?? wtf? global warming much?". I kid you not. I need new friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 5:58 PM, TheTrials said: Dude the plot is snow regardless of the thickneses. Warmest level is surface a smidge above 0 and there is room to wet bulb. It's mid January it snows even with your thickness with a sounding like that. I agree with Trials on this one... The critical thickness in that lower layer, while somewhat borderline-ish, still leans towards likely frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:02 PM, SBUWX23 said: Just like it did Monday night! Amazing. I post skew t's every event. I know what I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hour 78 of the gefs for Trials. 850 line in central Jersey: And still snowing over NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:03 PM, earthlight said: I saw 3 (three) facebook statuses a few nights ago which said "it's hailing in winter?? wtf? global warming much?". I kid you not. I need new friends. delete metfan, ace and noreaster from your profile dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro looks to be coming in a decent bit warmer at 66 hrs just taking a rough glance compared to the 00z run. We will see where it goes the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I cringe when I hear anyone say its hailing during a winter event. It's probably my biggest pet peeve On 1/18/2012 at 6:02 PM, jiksports said: Then we have to deal with all those people running around screaming "it's hailing, it's hailing!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If you have followed my posts, I always mention to look at the actual skew-t sounding and not those raw text outputs. Im agreeing with you man! On 1/18/2012 at 6:04 PM, TheTrials said: Amazing. I post skew t's every event. I know what I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Some snow into the area at 72 hours. But the surface low elongated extending into Southern Ohio. Seems to be a decent bit west (maybe slower) compared to 00z. The onset of the precip is definitely slower by a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:05 PM, earthlight said: Euro looks to be coming in a decent bit warmer at 66 hrs just taking a rough glance compared to the 00z run. We will see where it goes the next few frames. What about the clipper tomorrow night? anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 At 78 hrs the 850 line is in roughly the same spot as it was on last nights 00z run (valid for the same time at 90 hr). There's definitely less precipitation though...it seems a little less organized and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:08 PM, JERSEYSNOWROB said: What about the clipper tomorrow night? anything? Not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:07 PM, SBUWX23 said: If you have followed my posts, I always mention to look at the actual skew-t sounding and not those raw text outputs. Im agreeing with you man! soundings are really the best way in determining precip type with thicknesses acting as a good rough guideline. Soundings are also a great way at looking at the strength of low-mid-level warm advection by analyzing the strength of the veering pattern of wind with height. I prefer this method as opposed to the more traditional method of looking at where height contours cross isotherms. Soundings are also good in determining saturation in the snow growth layer so long as you also take into account that there is good omega happening within that region as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:12 PM, ace0927 said: same sh-t different year...my post got deleted...unreal It won't be the same this year because I have no tolerance for it. You're clogging up the threads with horse sh*t as usual. If you have a question, ask it in a normal manner. If you disagree, do it professionally. Your tone is condescending and it leads to arguments that we don't need to have. That's the last thing I'll say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:04 PM, tornadojay said: I agree with Trials on this one... The critical thickness in that lower layer, while somewhat borderline-ish, still leans towards likely frozen precip. he said its all snow..I simply pointed him to the bottom left which showed a r/s mix with a slant towards snow. in this winter, id error on the side of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On a side not, GFS trys to produce something way down the road around the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:07 PM, SBUWX23 said: If you have followed my posts, I always mention to look at the actual skew-t sounding and not those raw text outputs. Im agreeing with you man! I know you are, I appreciate it, i was just SMH that I was being called out when soundings are my thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I had posted this link in the past, but I'll post it again, as it's an excellent summary in determining precip type with some simple sounding examples... good reference stuff here... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'll wait for the official numbers...but the Euro has roughly 0.3" of QPF for everybody through 78 hours. At that point the 850 0c line has moved far enough north so that it's probably sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:11 PM, tornadojay said: soundings are really the best way in determining precip type with thicknesses acting as a good rough guideline. Soundings are also a great way at looking at the strength of low-mid-level warm advection by analyzing the strength of the veering pattern of wind with height. I prefer this method as opposed to the more traditional method of looking at where height contours cross isotherms. Soundings are also good in determining saturation in the snow growth layer so long as you also take into account that there is good omega happening within that region as well. all of this plus an !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:15 PM, ace0927 said: he said its all snow..I simply pointed him to the bottom left which showed a r/s mix with a slant towards snow. in this winter, id error on the side of caution. I gotcha man, just don't do it in such an argumentative way. Then, it can actually lead to constructive discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:06 PM, Plfdwxdude said: I cringe when I hear anyone say its hailing during a winter event. It's probably my biggest pet peeve Mine too, it drives me nuts. Then u try to explain to them in simple terms and they make the same mistake next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 wunderground maps have 2"-3" for NYC and west and also the north shore of LI has 2" or so. The ocean facing areas get less then 1". Northern and western suburbs get 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Checking the buoys, water temperatures are still in the upper 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's funny too because you never hear the opposite. Nobody sees a golf ball size hailstone and says oh its sleeting out... On 1/18/2012 at 6:19 PM, Rjay said: Mine too, it drives me nuts. Then u try to explain to them in simple terms and they make the same mistake next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:30 PM, tmagan said: Checking the buoys, water temperatures are still in the upper 40's. Sandy Hook buoy is 38.8 Western LI sound buoys and NYC harbor buoys are all 37-39 degrees. Eastern LI sound buoys 39-42. The offshore buoys are in the mid and upper 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You can see there are differences between the GFS and the GGEM/Euro and other globals when you compare them side by side. The GFS is de-amplified while the GGEM (which we can use here for the sake of comparison) has a much more consolidated surface low back to the west. This is a generally unfavorable shortwave and surface low positioning for our area. GGEM: http://www.meteo.psu...AST_12z/f78.gif GFS: http://www.meteo.psu...AST_12z/f78.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:34 PM, Plfdwxdude said: It's funny too because you never hear the opposite. Nobody sees a golf ball size hailstone and says oh its sleeting out... Your assuming the average Joe knows the difference between hail and sleet. Alot of people are not aware of the differences and could care less to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 6:24 PM, ag3 said: wunderground maps have 2"-3" for NYC and west and also the north shore of LI has 2" or so. The ocean facing areas get less then 1". Northern and western suburbs get 4"+. Lovely. I'll be praying throughout this event or lack-thereof that we avoid the south winds. Even last winter those killed us from time to time when coastal fronts would barely pass over us and wreck the snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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