Mikehobbyst Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Please use this post to focus on these two snow potentials (advisory type snows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 6z gfs and its ensembles were warm for the Saturday event. Very little snow to start and then a bunch of rain. Good hit for SNE. Very similar to 2007-2008. The clipper is also a good hit for SNE and barely skims us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z NAM has nothing for the clipper and looks very warm at hour 84 for the Saturday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS gives our area a dusting to a coating for the clipper and rain on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z Ukie leaves NYC dry for the Thursday clipper as well. Similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GEFS is a little more wet than the op run for the clipper. It is also south and colder with the overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Ukie looks like rain for the Saturday storm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think our best shot is for the clipper on Thursday night to get a bit juicier and drop 1"-3" over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Better look at the GGEM from Ewall. 1-3 inches looks reasonable if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS ensembles look good for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro has some light snow from the clipper, weak and disorganized as the lp moves to our north. Don't think it amounts to anything more then some light snow possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro still has the snow for us on Saturday. Holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It has 3-4 inches for Northern New Jersey and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro maybe 1-3 inches of snow saturday then things warm. Looks like it breaks the energy apart, will see if we get a second wave. Would probably be to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 about .4 inches of precipitation region-wide, likely all snow .43 at NYC .42 at MMU .44 at CDW .42 at 12N .42 at FWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yep precip moves out just before the warming. Verbatim does look like some snow, nothing major 1-3. But hey 1-3 would be awesome. Weak wave that is squashed by the confluence, EURO keeps the high in place which is the key to preventing the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yep precip moves out just before the warming. Verbatim does look like some snow, nothing major 1-3. But hey 1-3 would be awesome. Weak wave that is squashed by the confluence, EURO keeps the high in place which is the key to preventing the warming. .40" of precip is 3"-4" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 1-3 inches sounds very nice at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 what's the rough start and end time of the storm on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Roughly 5am on Saturday to 5pm what's the rough start and end time of the storm on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 about .4 inches of precipitation region-wide, likely all snow .43 at NYC .42 at MMU .44 at CDW .42 at 12N .42 at FWN . How does the surface look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 +1.4 at NYC at the end, starts out below freezing, pretty much everyone looks good with this one in Northern New Jersey/NYC . How does the surface look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 +1.4 at NYC at the end, starts out below freezing, pretty much everyone looks good with this one in Northern New Jersey/NYC Does it have anywhere near .10" of precip for the clipper on Thursday night? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 .01- at NYC .02 at Caldwell, NJ .03 at Andover, NJ .03 at Morristown, NJ Does it have anywhere near .10" of precip for the clipper on Thursday night? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 .01- at NYC .02 in some other areas Thanks for the info. We all appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 +1.4 at NYC at the end, starts out below freezing, pretty much everyone looks good with this one in Northern New Jersey/NYC Sounds good. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yep precip moves out just before the warming. Verbatim does look like some snow, nothing major 1-3. But hey 1-3 would be awesome. Weak wave that is squashed by the confluence, EURO keeps the high in place which is the key to preventing the warming. Thanks for the info. This is the Euro's accurate range, but do you think that it will gave to the GGEM and the GFS which both show a primarily rain event, with some snow at the outset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thanks for the info. This is the Euro's accurate range, but do you think that it will gave to the GGEM and the GFS which both show a primarily rain event, with some snow at the outset? GGEM is pretty close to snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GGEM is pretty close to snow for us. I just looked at it again... your right, it does end as rain though. Here is the snow on the GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Better look at the GGEM from Ewall. 1-3 inches looks reasonable if this verifies. I think it's time to try and put an end to this absurd 1-3" range that tv mets invented in the 70s. A powdery 3" that accumulates on roadways can be an impactful storm. 1" is usually just a nuissance snow. But most people just assume the higher number. The same is true for 3-6 and 4-8 etc. It might be better to report a single number with an error bar, like 5, plus or minus 2. We shouldn't always estimate upwards based on model QPF. At our latidude and near the Atlantic Ocean, a 10:1 ratio is a good first assumption. So from .11" liquid we should guess a range of something like .6" to 1.6, not 1-3" Other potentially acceptable forecasts would be "around an inch," or "a coating to 2" or just "<2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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