tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z GFS at 12Z Sat. tries to nudge temps. above freezing between 850mb and about 925mb around PTW. A touch warmer than the 12z GFS. Close call for the Delaware Valley. It does appear the bulk of the precip. falls between about 06z-15z if the models hold serve, phlwx is right, this will be a thump over to some icing before it ends for phl and immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 if the models hold serve, phlwx is right, this will be a thump over to some icing before it ends for phl and immediate burbs. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yup. We just need to avoid a further bump north at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z gfs ens mean is colder than the op, but that is probably expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks to tombo (and everyone else) for your input on this upcoming snow/wintry mix event. I'm looking forward to following along with your thoughts on the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 if the models hold serve, phlwx is right, this will be a thump over to some icing before it ends for phl and immediate burbs. I'd say that's a pretty good bet. Precip intensity decreasing should also help the change over to ZR and IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll go 1-3 city, 2-4 north of a Morgantown-Trenton line. 3-6 above Route 222 in Berks & LV. 1-3 and 2-4 will mix at some point... If I had to go the probabalistic route I'd say for PHL %60 for 1-3" 30% chance for trace/nothing, %10 chance 3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I ran the BUKFIT for the 18z NAM and GFS. The following is for KPNE... NAM has 0.04" as SN, 0.06" as ZR, and the rest as RN. GFS has 0.11" as SN, 0.25" as ZR (), but never goes over to plain rain. The wild card is probably the possible coastal development that the GFS has been advertising. I don't know how much this has been discussed already, but that's the only way, imo, I see PHL getting more than an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nws holding serve with HWO and rain and snow saturday for northern lehigh valley , thats interesting, haven't even heard a forecast mentioning freezing rain up here, good ole nws I guess multiple people explaining to you why you could see zr, wasn't enough for you. No reason to NWS bash, just because the forecast doesn't say exactly what you want. They know a heck of a lot more then you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On a funny note, here's the temperature forecast in the Winter Storm Watch. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 200S ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nws holding serve with HWO and rain and snow saturday for northern lehigh valley , thats interesting, haven't even heard a forecast mentioning freezing rain up here, good ole nws Yeah, i don't get it sometimes. i guess they will error on the side of caution. Tombo said it earlier." they can always increase it later" . or something like that. Anything coming down your way Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On a funny note, here's the temperature forecast in the Winter Storm Watch. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 200S ON SATURDAY. Kelvin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not bashing smoke eater, just conversing is all. No rickrd nothing down here, I was just up in jim thorpe though real light flurries, penndot Is salting, they got the plows on and everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 nam coming in a good bit colder through 33hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How's the precip amounts looking? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How's the precip amounts looking? Thanks its faster overall than the 18z so more frozen...through 36 hrs .25-.5 for the whole area..850 line from ilg to southern lanco to carlisle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 its faster overall than the 18z so more frozen...through 36 hrs .25-.5 for the whole area..850 line from ilg to southern lanco to carlisle ' How much of that .25-.5 is snow compared to sleet and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ' How much of that .25-.5 is snow compared to sleet and rain? Just saw it - 850 line indicates a nice thump of snow before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 phl is all frozen/freezing this run of the nam with almost .75 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 phl is all frozen/freezing this run of the nam with almost .75 qpf Is it all frozon out this way too Tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlweather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Clear move south increases snow totals to 3-6 area wide 2M Temps stay below freezing for most of event- 1000-500mb thicknesses over TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How is that all snow when the 850s are like 50 miles north of philly at 39? Oh well, not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Is it all frozon out this way too Tombo? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hopefully Walt Drag is awake and is on board solid 3-5 from the turn pike north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How is that all snow when the 850s are like 50 miles north of philly at 39? Oh well, not complaining. its atleast 2.5 for philly, they are still snow hr 36..they change over to sleet or frz rain between hr 36 and 39. They get a good dump of qpf like .25-.3 through hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking beautiful up here in the Poconos I hope it get's a tad colder for you folks on the fence though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 its atleast 2.5 for philly, they are still snow hr 36..they change over to sleet or frz rain between hr 36 and 39. They get a good dump of qpf like .25-.3 through hr 36 Yeah the sfc at PHL on this run stays at 32 for the whole event. Even a nice thump for the city before the changeover. It's also hinting at the secondary deepening quicker than on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 saving grace if their is any...this is a snow to sleet storm for philly and burbs, not frz rain per nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM.....colder and juicier. Bring on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 looking at soundings for phl...they get .34 qpf before change over...max temp throughout the storm is 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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