Snowlover11 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 318 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 ...SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... .LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. NJZ001-PAZ054-055-201100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.120121T0600Z-120122T0000Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 318 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL START FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER THE EVENING COMMUTE, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH LATE ON SATURDAY. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 200S ON SATURDAY. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18Z NAM is warm.....hopefully a burp run and not the beginnnings of a trend. Juicy yet warm: Yeah, at 12z Saturday, temps. aloft in a place like PTW are already climbing above freezing between 800-900 mb. Never too fond of the 18z/6z runs anyway...........we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, at 12z Saturday, temps. aloft in a place like PTW are already climbing above freezing between 800-900 mb. Never too fond of the 18z/6z runs anyway...........we'll see. will see what the rgem shows in like 20 mins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 fwiw the euro ens at hr 48 matches the euro op pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For lehigh area. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY Is this a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For lehigh area. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY Is this a joke? no it makes sense...Its always better to start off small and go bigger, just ask bolaris. When you hype something up 2 days out and in a volitile situation like this, you can get burnt. When you throw big numbers out and then have to downgrade its an inconvience to the public and leads to bashing. If you start off small and gradually work up its taken better than the other way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For lehigh area. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY Is this a joke? Because there's a chance warmer air can surge in aloft and change you over. the Poconos are about the only ones that are a lock to be all snow on this. Everyone has a shot at going to zr or ip in the Philly metro... the trend is good now but these type of events aren't the easiest to forecast...they either overperform as thumps or they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 When you hype something up 2 days out and in a volitile situation like this, you can get burnt. When you throw big numbers out and then have to downgrade its an inconvience to the public and leads to bashing. What torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 What torch? mondays torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 mondays torch Whoooooosh! I was trying to make fun of myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whoooooosh! I was trying to make fun of myself to your credit and everyone else, no one saw this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 not only that, but it isnt like there isnt some support for this forecast, and the models that do predict more snow do so with a very marginal thermal profile. there's more to a forecast than just taking the snowiest model output and applying a 10-1 qpf ratio. For lehigh area. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY Is this a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 no it makes sense...Its always better to start off small and go bigger, just ask bolaris. When you hype something up 2 days out and in a volitile situation like this, you can get burnt. When you throw big numbers out and then have to downgrade its an inconvience to the public and leads to bashing. If you start off small and gradually work up its taken better than the other way, I sure the hell would not ask Bolaris anything except maybe for a spiked drink and a trip to Miami. One must be realistic and indicate the storm has the potential for additional snow accumulation right at the start. Private contracting plow drivers like to hear realistic numbers. Nothing worse than plowing the same parking lot twice because some lame brain said it was only going to snow an inch. Now thats an inconvenience for the business and for the plow driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I sure the hell would not ask Bolaris anything except maybe for a spiked drink and a trip to Miami. One must be realistic and indicate the storm has the potential for additional snow accumulation right at the start. Private contracting plow drivers like to hear realistic numbers. Nothing worse than plowing the same parking lot twice because some lame brain said it was only going to snow an inch. Now thats an inconvenience for the business and for the plow driver. i realize that, but why would you throw high numbers out when their is still a good deal of uncertainty...by this time tomorrow it could be higher and the contractors would of had plenty of time to adapt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 from mt holy snow and ice forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i realize that, but why would you throw high numbers out when their is still a good deal of uncertainty...by this time tomorrow it could be higher and the contractors would of had plenty of time to adapt. You realized your arguing with grothar? Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I sure the hell would not ask Bolaris anything except maybe for a spiked drink and a trip to Miami. One must be realistic and indicate the storm has the potential for additional snow accumulation right at the start. Private contracting plow drivers like to hear realistic numbers. Nothing worse than plowing the same parking lot twice because some lame brain said it was only going to snow an inch. Now thats an inconvenience for the business and for the plow driver. If you forecast 6" of snow and reality ends up being an inch of snow plus freezing rain and sleet do you think the plow driver (and public) would prefer that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 from mt holy snow and ice forecast Can't argue with those maps, unless you want to take the side of the NAM over most other models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Was the RGEM colder than the NAM? Seems to be from what the NYC forum is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Was the RGEM colder than the NAM? Seems to be from what the NYC forum is saying. its hard to say cause its 12hr increments, but it looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yes, definitely Was the RGEM colder than the NAM? Seems to be from what the NYC forum is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 stolen from NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 nah jersey areas get snow to, your location on the snow maps on wunderground show snow over you. I must have had the wrong run up or something because I just looked at it again. Trying to do too many things at once at work today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I though NJ was in for a 2-5 inch snow forecast but yet Mt Holly seems to downplay this whole event and make it a non event. What is the deal here? I am a snowplow operator and scheduled for a trip to DC on Saturday but probably not going to do it. It makes a big difference though if we get 1-2 inches vs 2-5 inches in my business...if you read this forum and the NYC forum it would appear a 2-5 inch storm is the likely scenerio, can anyone tell me why Mt Holly is so conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i realize that, but why would you throw high numbers out when their is still a good deal of uncertainty...by this time tomorrow it could be higher and the contractors would of had plenty of time to adapt. I am not saying necessarily high numbers to give them false hopes- just realistic number range for snow and ice. Sleet and ice do matter because of the amount of salt needed on the parking lot. For a promet firm or whomever to say 1-2 inches with freezing rain is not realistic with overrunning storm events. The potential to bust low is higher for this year as evident by the October storm event. I would simply add possible higher accumulation of snow to the forecast.Plow drivers like snow- less cost to spread salt and you can scrape all the way to the pavement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 1. depends where in NJ? certainly wouldnt like that forecast for anywhere near the shore 2. there is a very marginal temperature gradient here, the small differences that would lead to 1-2" as opposed to 2-5" are very hard to tell a few days before the event, Mt. Holly is putting out a good, conservative forecast given the information out there now. I though NJ was in for a 2-5 inch snow forecast but yet Mt Holly seems to downplay this whole event and make it a non event. What is the deal here? I am a snowplow operator and scheduled for a trip to DC on Saturday but probably not going to do it. It makes a big difference though if we get 1-2 inches vs 2-5 inches in my business...if you read this forum and the NYC forum it would appear a 2-5 inch storm is the likely scenerio, can anyone tell me why Mt Holly is so conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS looks slightly north for our area, but most of SE PA would probably still be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The GFS really doesn't change anything except for areas that were on the borderline at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The GFS really doesn't change anything except for areas that were on the borderline at 12z. Well.....that's alot of the area in this subforum. It's going to be a close call south of the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z GFS at 12Z Sat. tries to nudge temps. above freezing between 850mb and about 925mb around PTW. A touch warmer than the 12z GFS. Close call for the Delaware Valley. It does appear the bulk of the precip. falls between about 06z-15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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