Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 side note: could be some slick spots tonight/early am. im back in dhizzle, gf and i parted ways lol to sum it uo i got sanduskied by her lol sorry tom, i'll miss you up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 just keep in the back of your mind, this can also trend warmer. The trends the last 12hrs have been favorable but it can go the other way just as easily. Exactly why I am keeping myself from getting too excited about anything until i look out saturday morning and its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 just keep in the back of your mind, this can also trend warmer. The trends the last 12hrs have been favorable but it can go the other way just as easily. NYC is looking fairly good, but we are on the border, so still have to watch. A shift of about 20 miles would make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I sort of agree with this, just not the "just as easily". model accuracy increases dramatically the closer you get to an event. With that being said, given this winter, caution is still advised.... just keep in the back of your mind, this can also trend warmer. The trends the last 12hrs have been favorable but it can go the other way just as easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 As always for us in Monmouth County it will be a close call. Could go either way for us. 1-3 then slop or 3-5 of pure heaven. We shall see. Being in NW Monmouth County should help us I would think. SWFE almost never work out as all snow for Monmouth, I'd say 1 - 2 to slop at best, unless the south trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am sure that I am not the only one excited to see the timing of this "potential" Saturday snow. First real chance of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 side note: could be some slick spots tonight/early am. sorry tom, i'll miss you up this way. thanks man, appreciate it...your area looks to do well as modeled right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This has the look of a classic front end thump that ends as wintry slop...very similar to the Feb '08 event that gave most everyone 3-5 from Philly on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 so far on the euro things look a hair colder so far...low pressure out of the south is a little more less defined...northern stream is sinking further south also lowering the hgts in the middle of the country more so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 euro holds serve through hr 48...just going off 850s snow from northern del on north...850s are a touch warmer but surface is the same...euro is a little wetter..dropping .1-.25 over the regions as snow... hr 54 good bit colder...frz line and 850s on pa turnpike..then frz line goes up i95 another .1-.25 qpf..0z had frz line and 850s up to i78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 If this was Friday morning I'd forecast 2-4 inches back home. Its not though... so I'll just say "less than 6 inches" for now to leave my options open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 hr 60 everything crashes back south...850 line cuts just north of the city, frz line south of city...no precip left \...though i would worry about some left over frz drizzle/sleet or what not over the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 thanks for euro tom ray is going with 0 - 5.99" for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll go 1-3 city, 2-4 north of a Morgantown-Trenton line. 3-6 above Route 222 in Berks & LV. 1-3 and 2-4 will mix at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 hr 60 everything crashes back south...850 line cuts just north of the city, frz line south of city...no precip left \...though i would worry about some left over frz drizzle/sleet or what not over the region Thanks, Tom. Looking like mostly snow out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll go 1-3 city, 2-4 north of a Morgantown-Trenton line. 3-6 above Route 222 in Berks & LV. 1-3 and 2-4 will mix at some point... all would be happy with these adam lurking but has not posted yet throwing a warm curve ball into the mix.... maybe he only has 5 posts per day available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am, of course, jealous of you all if this works out. The biggest "storm" we've had here in Elko is 1.4" back in November. I might average more snow, but you all average bigger storms (well, except maybe some poor folks in S Jersey and Delaware). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 im back in dhizzle, gf and i parted ways lol to sum it uo i got sanduskied by her lol Welcome back! You liked Delco better anyways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks, Tom. Looking like mostly snow out here? most frozen verbatim but the 0 line is not far off...wouldn't surprise if there's sleet at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 adam lurking but has not posted yet throwing a warm curve ball into the mix.... maybe he only has 5 posts per day available LOL. More like 5 min/day right now to look at the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That all the models shifted (well, still waiting for the EC) suggests an important observational change. I'm lazy so I haven't gone looking for it (hey, its my day off!) It *is* possible that some bad data made it out there. But anyway, I think its wise to wait for another at least 1, if not 2 model runs before going all-in. Lol@ ray for doing his best hpc redux impersonation last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks, Tom. Looking like mostly snow out here? Yea man our area out in the KOP/Collegeville area will do much better than Philly. Always works out that way in these close situations. Tombo knows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 side note: could be some slick spots tonight/early am. Saw PennDot out on Business Rt 1 at lunch brining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea man our area out in the KOP/Collegeville area will do much better than Philly. Always works out that way in these close situations. Tombo knows that. yea this is a latitude system in terms of snow...for frozen freezing north of m/d line and away from 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yea this is a latitude system in terms of snow...for frozen freezing north of m/d line and away from 95 Looking at the 12z euro snowfall maps, it appears that east of the Delaware and south of Trenton get nada verbatim. Please correct me if I am interpreting wrong, but it looks like slop to rain for us NJers south of Rayville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looking at the 12z euro snowfall maps, it appears that east of the Delaware and south of Trenton get nada verbatim. Please correct me if I am interpreting wrong, but it looks like slop to rain for us NJers south of Rayville... nah jersey areas get snow to, your location on the snow maps on wunderground show snow over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 not saturday but could cause some slick conditions late/am unless it dries up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Approximate EC snowfall from the Wunderground maps: MPO: 4.4 ABE: 3.7 RDG: 2.8 TTN: 2.9 PHL: 2.1 ILG: 1.7 ACY: 0.6 GED: 0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 not saturday but could cause some slick conditions late/am unless it dries up I made a thread for tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18Z NAM is warm.....hopefully a burp run and not the beginnnings of a trend. Juicy yet warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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