arlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 From Mt. Holly AFD: LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING NOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR (MOSTLY) SNOW AND MAYBE SOME SLEET WITH THE LOW. SOME ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR...MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES...AND WWA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED IN UPCOMING FCSTS. THE LOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO CENTRAL AREAS OF NJ AND METRO PHILADELPHIA TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH TO CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...REDUCING THE ACCUMULATIONS. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY SUN MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So you thinking more snow out this way than ice? It looks like the "trends" are better than 24 hours ago anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So you thinking more snow out this way than ice? It looks like the "trends" are better than 24 hours ago anyway. No It appears as though the 850 0 line moves further north the farther west you go. Looks like more ice out your way just looking at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nyc should deff get a couple inches of snow out of this. Latitude helps with this storm. Though, watch out for the warm air intrusion below 850, you know the mid level warmth works in faster than what is progged. Good thing for you guys is that this is still 2 days away and can trend colder, or it cold trend warmer. Though a snowless jan for nyc looks gone as of now. I hope it works out. A lot of times people say that the mid-level warmth is underestimated by the models, but I'm thinking this is more of a Feb 22, 2008 thump scenario, where it is a 95% solid shot of snow thanks to the lift dynamically cooling the column and offsetting the warm air advection to a large extent. Then as the lift dies down and the precip gets lighter, it finally changes over at the tail end to inconsequential sleet/rain and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 850's look colder on 12zgfs on th front end.. Hr 45 850's from central MD to SNj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam skewT's push the mid level warm air up to 78 at hour 48-54 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whew.. So close.. 850's straddle the mason dixon line 48-51 hrs..2m surfac temps bout the same, although cad to our western areas look a little stronger. Soo close for immediate Philly on this run. Tombo's weenie driven move north might pay off for him :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 850's look colder on 12zgfs on th front end.. Hr 45 850's from central MD to SNj Verbatim, it looks like S&E of the Delaware stay liquid. More than likely we'll start off as slop and change to cold rain...Hooray Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For those who stayed all snow, what do max. totals look like.... 4 inches or so??? Maybe 5 in highest elevations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For those who stayed all snow, what do max. totals look like.... 4 inches or so??? Maybe 5 in highest elevations? I'd say 4" max.. Qpf on the GFS was on the .25-.35" range bc of the colder solution. You get better ratios further inland. With a warmer solution, the qpf Increases due to better advection, but the ratios also fall due to mid level warmth.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'd say 4" max.. Qpf on the GFS was on the .25-.35" range bc of the colder solution. You get better ratios further inland. With a warmer solution, the qpf Increases due to better advection, but the ratios also fall due to mid level warmth.. Yeah, sounds about right. GFS at 12z on Saturday: SkewT right on the fence in the Delaware Valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Um this looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, sounds about right. GFS at 12z on Saturday: SkewT right on the fence in the Delaware Valley region. Good news is the ukie is coming a good bit colder for immediate Philly, which means colder up by your neck of the woods. The 850 line goes from dc to del bay. Tricky forecast for immediate Philly, but N&W looks better and better each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Good news is the ukie is coming a good bit colder for immediate Philly, which means colder up by your neck of the woods. The 850 line goes from dc to del bay. Tricky forecast for immediate Philly, but N&W looks better and better each run Yup, as usual.....appears the battle ground is south of I-78 and northwest of I-95 in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z gfs threads the needle with 540 line around philly. definitely best chance since oct.29th, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whew.. So close.. 850's straddle the mason dixon line 48-51 hrs..2m surfac temps bout the same, although cad to our western areas look a little stronger. Soo close for immediate Philly on this run. Tombo's weenie driven move north might pay off for him :-) im back in dhizzle, gf and i parted ways lol to sum it uo i got sanduskied by her lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yup, as usual.....appears the battle ground is south of I-78 and northwest of I-95 in PA. 12z gfs threads the needle with 540 line around philly. definitely best chance since oct.29th, at this point. the ens mean is even colder... would imply majority snow from m/d line north with some change over at the end, but the best looks to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah the nam is finally on board with this...most of what falls by hour 54 when the 850 0c line is just north of nyc has already fallen as snow. .. Definitely getting confident in A 3-6" event area-wide with this... but lets wait and see what the next 2 day's models bring EDIT: This was a NYC metro area-centric post...I forgot I was in the Philly thread. it still is a decent run for you guys but probably rain and sleet to deal with still. As always for us in Monmouth County it will be a close call. Could go either way for us. 1-3 then slop or 3-5 of pure heaven. We shall see. Being in NW Monmouth County should help us I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The ukie looks like a decent fron end dump for philly area, assuming levels between 850 and surface are below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 well one thing for sure, no real need to shovel (unless the weenies like me want to make a pile for extended stay) since it will melt off soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the ens mean is even colder... would imply majority snow from m/d line north with some change over at the end, but the best looks to be snow. looking for 12z euro report later drexel hill? u left me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 going off the gfs skew t maps, looks like philly would change over from snow to sleet between hours 48 and 54 with about .25-.3 as snow... heres hr 48, close around the 800mb region, but the warmest it gets is .1 hr 54 skew t is almost is basically isothermal, ****ty ratios though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 well one thing for sure, no real need to shovel (unless the weenies like me want to make a pile for extended stay) since it will melt off soon after. I'll gladly sacrifice a quit melt if we could get a few inches on Saturday. Gladly!! I'm sure most of us would too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 looking for 12z euro report later drexel hill? u left me? lol yea i know, i loved the area up there...ill see what i can do. Im at work but i will make sure to check in as soon as it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 here's the latest crayola map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 newest ggem at 12z, continues overall colder look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 im back in dhizzle, gf and i parted ways lol to sum it uo i got sanduskied by her lol That's a bummer bro. I wasn't sure if you moved up there for work or whatnot. Haha and that's a great way of looking at it. I expect a full euro PBP in a few! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ptype ggem maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 here's the latest crayola map In this winter, I'll take 2-4 inches. Those are the types of storms we usually get anyway. The big KUs aren't as common as it seemed over the past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 just keep in the back of your mind, this can also trend warmer. The trends the last 12hrs have been favorable but it can go the other way just as easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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