LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM and UKMET are also south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 shocked at the GFS... 2 m temps barely reach philly, if that.. 850's by 1-78... big jump to a colder solution.. Burp or start of something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 from earthlight "72 hours on GGEM 1014mb low over Virgina elongated to the northeast. Not even remotely similar to the 12z run. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow, a huge cold shift on the GFS. Much better surface low track. That should be all snow in the N and W burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Also annoying NYC forum weenies are annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 shocked at the GFS... 2 m temps barely reach philly, if that.. 850's by 1-78... big jump to a colder solution.. Burp or start of something? More importantly, what the heck happened to the warm weather next week? 850s on monday only get to +8 and then collapse...what gives? I was really looking forward to the 70 degree weather for a bit. Winter torch fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hurricane seemed to be holding back a bit (likely wisely) with the 0z GFS changes (though other 0z models seemed to be folowing it!?) any words from wxrisk or JB?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM is a glorious hit too all snow from about lansdale Northward, starting at 4am and ending at about 9PM with just a hair of ZR http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hurricane seemed to be holding back a bit (likely wisely) with the 0z GFS changes (though other 0z models seemed to be folowing it!?) any words from wxrisk or JB?? i wouldnt blame him.. just 1 suite of runs.. we'll see what happens at 12z.. if the trend continues, it's gonna be a tough forecast for the immediate phillu burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The other guidance seems to suggest that the GFS wasn't just a blip run. Would be a nice storm if things stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It looks like the Canadian high is literally squashing the low, especially on the GGEM. The good news with this one is that there's only 4 more runs for flip-flops, except with the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 That all the models shifted (well, still waiting for the EC) suggests an important observational change. I'm lazy so I haven't gone looking for it (hey, its my day off!) It *is* possible that some bad data made it out there. But anyway, I think its wise to wait for another at least 1, if not 2 model runs before going all-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, looking at the GFS 500 mb charts, it would appear the biggest change is making the Pacific piece of energy both faster and weaker. Since that piece is still out over the water... I'd be worried that it could be incorrect with this change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here's the EC snowfall estimates from the Wunderground clown maps: MPO - 4.2 ABE - 4.1 RDG - 3.4 TTN - 2.3 PHL - 0.7 ILG - 0.5 ACY - 0.0 GED - 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EC a lil colder but still too warm for the city outside of very, very front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 not that we breathlessly await each run of the NAM but the 06z NAM is ever-so-slightly colder at the surface and aloft (we're only talking a few miles difference on the 850 line). Still signal for sleet/zr north/west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Finally...here's the rough snow map from ewall. 2-4" for everybody...more inland. http://www.meteo.psu...S_6z/snow60.gif Kinda hard to believe the NAM's going to spit 4-6" of snow in SE PA when the 850 line is north of I-78 during the heaviest precip on the model. It doesn't make a huge difference the NYC crowd but down here it seems way, way off. SV and Instatnt Weather maps seem a heckuva lot more reasonable on accum IMBY (but that's just SEPA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6z GFS a touch warmer aloft, pretty similar at the surface. Front end snow to wintry slop for much of SE PA...snow holds longer north than it does in the city. the 850 line shifted 20 miles north on this run during the height of precip, generally RDG-TTN at 7 AM Sat...was right over PHL on the 0z for the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 6Z NAM and 0Z EC are very similar... the 6Z GFS is the odd man out among the three. DT's EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 6Z NAM and 0Z EC are very similar... the 6Z GFS is the odd man out among the three. DT's EE rule? this can go either way in my eyes, it can trend colder or go warmer obviously. So far with the 0z model suite the trend has been colder. The 0z ggem is almost all snow in phl and def. all snow north of the pa turnpike. We all know the mid level warmth comes in a lot faster than progged. My concern is icing with that high placement it could be dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hurricane seemed to be holding back a bit (likely wisely) with the 0z GFS changes (though other 0z models seemed to be folowing it!?) any words from wxrisk or JB?? funny last thing I saw from JB was basically a prediction on the GFS...which the 00z delivered. He spoke about cold...warm....models over doing the breakdown of the cold etc etc. Anyway, trend is ....well you know. If we can pull off back to back wintry weekends in the poconos I will be stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 JB's latest forecast (see attached) Has a general 1-3" for SE PA...of course he is often a bit aggressive with his southern boundaries. He is also honking about a Fab Feb for those who want some winter weather in the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12Z NAM HR 48 is further south and about 3 hrs quicker compared to last nights 0Z at same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 thanks paul. yeah his winter cancel seems to end for feb. in his tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12Z NAM HR 48 is further south and about 3 hrs quicker compared to last nights 0Z at same hour. yea, the city gets a good bit more frozen/freezing on this run...colder trend continues for the nam...interesting to see what the gfs and euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yea, the city gets a good bit more frozen/freezing on this run...colder trend continues for the nam...interesting to see what the gfs and euro do. Definitely looks like at least some snow for all of SE PA - maybe changing to light rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah the nam is finally on board with this...most of what falls by hour 54 when the 850 0c line is just north of nyc has already fallen as snow. .. Definitely getting confident in A 3-6" event area-wide with this... but lets wait and see what the next 2 day's models bring EDIT: This was a NYC metro area-centric post...I forgot I was in the Philly thread. it still is a decent run for you guys but probably rain and sleet to deal with still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like the NAM is really holding down the CAD wedge so everyone gets at least an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah the nam is finally on board with this...most of what falls by hour 54 when the 850 0c line is just north of nyc has already fallen as snow. .. Definitely getting confident in A 3-6" event area-wide with this... but lets wait and see what the next 2 day's models bring EDIT: This was a NYC metro area-centric post...I forgot I was in the Philly thread. it still is a decent run for you guys but probably rain and sleet to deal with still. Nyc should deff get a couple inches of snow out of this. Latitude helps with this storm. Though, watch out for the warm air intrusion below 850, you know the mid level warmth works in faster than what is progged. Good thing for you guys is that this is still 2 days away and can trend colder, or it cold trend warmer. Though a snowless jan for nyc looks gone as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 for the phl area on the nam... lehigh valley and far burbs do well with a good shot at 3 plus...philly immediate burbs looks like an ice storm, and the city should see some good icing before going over to some rain, but 80% of the precip looks ot be frozen/freezing t\for the city on n and w... I'm more concerned over the ice potential than snow. The city itself on the nam only reaches 33-34 for the high...Obviously things can change big time, but as of now things are trending colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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