phlwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 yea it has gotten warmer. I just wonder if models are under doing the surface temp. The high is in a decent spot throughout the event.. the mid level warmth i dont deny one bit it will warm up quickly. (the high isn't the strongest out there though...1026ish and in the Midwest through Ontario...not great...not the worst situ though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not much warmer...still all snow in the Poconos and the all-frozen line barely gets past I-78. Looks like it hits I-80 on the SV maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.5 -6.5 1025 48 100 0.01 556 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.1 -3.4 1021 78 100 0.12 557 541 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 0.7 1.0 1014 96 99 0.19 558 547 SUN 00Z 22-JAN -0.3 2.6 1017 94 64 0.09 560 547 For ABE looks like maybe an inch or so of snow to ZR... SAT 12Z 21-JAN 0.9 -0.6 1020 75 94 0.03 559 544 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 6.5 3.7 1012 94 96 0.13 560 550 SUN 00Z 22-JAN 3.5 4.6 1016 97 71 0.14 562 550 SUN 06Z 22-JAN 0.4 5.6 1020 92 93 0.01 564 549 KPHL looks like maybe a wintery mix to all rain? 12 Z ECM above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Trying keep order in NY thread that is 10 pages compared to this one. A little desperation setting in for a few posters up that way. It has been fun to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z gfs is warmer...heavier precip is freezing/frozen but it's north of 80 and above Scranton by hour 66-69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z gfs is warmer...heavier precip is freezing/frozen but it's north of 80 and above Scranton by hour 66-69. So even poconos go to rain at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.2 -4.6 1021 62 94 0.01 555 539 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.9 1.0 1014 96 99 0.21 555 544 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 1.0 2.6 1010 96 90 0.33 553 545 ABE 18 Z GFS text output Surface below freezing at 12 Z ..850s above freezing.. Surface above freezing 18 Z (barely) 850s above.... Light snow less then an inch to ice.. in the ABE region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Current Wxsim for NW Chester County has snow arriving toward 4am on Saturday with a slow transition to Sleet and then ZR and to plain rain before ending. Currently Wxsim shows the high getting to 33.8 but in these situations I would bet we will be hard pressed to get above freezing at the surface. As it stands now 0.67" of precip with 0.54" falling with temps still below freezing. Looks like near 2" of Snow/IP before ZR. This would believe it or not considering this non-winter to date.... get us back to near normal season to date snowfall. We currently stand at 9.4" of snow for the season - normal thru today is 10.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.2 -4.6 1021 62 94 0.01 555 539 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.9 1.0 1014 96 99 0.21 555 544 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 1.0 2.6 1010 96 90 0.33 553 545 ABE 18 Z GFS text output Surface below freezing at 12 Z ..850s above freezing.. Surface above freezing 18 Z (barely) 850s above.... Light snow less then an inch to ice.. in the ABE region... Hi buddy, trying to study these soundings a little bit to learn how to read them, where did you get these? ATM this looks to be more of an ice than a snow concern for the LV huh? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hi buddy, trying to study these soundings a little bit to learn how to read them, where did you get these? ATM this looks to be more of an ice than a snow concern for the LV huh? Thanks! IMHO yes... I get them from accu pro for the GFS/ECM so if you ever need them just let me know and I will get them...just need the nearest airport code..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 JB's take on models being a bit too optimistic with the warm air on Saturday "And right now it is too strong with too much warm air with the wave on the east coast Saturday. Why? The same reason I explained to you last week why the model would get rid of cold air. It will not "know" until Friday the conditions of how much warmth there is and cold to resist it. So it estimates, and it keeps trying to destroy the cold air. Why, because its all fired up about a western trough. The problem is that if the cold wont move, it then changes the models feedback." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 IMHO yes... I get them from accu pro for the GFS/ECM so if you ever need them just let me know and I will get them...just need the nearest airport code..... Ok great thanks, Well im under KABE too so that helps, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't disagree that 222 and above (in general) plus the hills of Bucks/Chesco/NW Montco will have some temp issues at the surface...can easily see a sleet/zr/slopfest for Berks and the LV and the edges of the suburban counties Just can't see that "cold" holding south of the Turnpike to KOP/south of 422 in the valleys. I don't foresee a 100% snow event unless the storm goes bonkers and (insert weenie phrase) generates its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 A little desperation setting in for a few posters up that way. It has been fun to read. the 18z was like throwing a match into a gas tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the 18z was like throwing a match into a gas tank. That is a good way to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the 18z was like throwing a match into a gas tank. Ha, figures. I'll stick to the 00z and 12z runs at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't disagree that 222 and above (in general) plus the hills of Bucks/Chesco/NW Montco will have some temp issues at the surface...can easily see a sleet/zr/slopfest for Berks and the LV and the edges of the suburban counties Just can't see that "cold" holding south of the Turnpike to KOP/south of 422 in the valleys. I don't foresee a 100% snow event unless the storm goes bonkers and (insert weenie phrase) generates its own cold air. if the storm tracks under us through southern va it would be snow. It wouldn't need to go bonkers. The problem the last 36 hrs has been the models keep ticking the storm further north hence the warmer air comes further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 if the storm tracks under us through southern va it would be snow. It wouldn't need to go bonkers. The problem the last 36 hrs has been the models keep ticking the storm further north hence the warmer air comes further north. -PNA,+AO &NAO = fail.. even if the NAO was neutral, i'd be a bit more optimistic. but there's really nothing to hold this cold air in other than some measily weak HP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 if the storm tracks under us through southern va it would be snow. It wouldn't need to go bonkers. The problem the last 36 hrs has been the models keep ticking the storm further north hence the warmer air comes further north. Clipper needs to be stronger to suppress...north trend wins this winter so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 -PNA,+AO &NAO = fail.. FTW. i'll be thrilled with a coating before the 33F all day rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FWIW, 0z NAM is colder. All frozen north of the LV, starts as snow for all of SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 FWIW, 0z NAM is colder. All frozen north of the LV, starts as snow for all of SE PA. Still changes to sleet/frz rain in the Poconos... overall its both weaker and further south. We're still outside NAM optimal range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If I am reading this correctly KABE doesnt go above 30.8° during the storm? http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kabe.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 If I am reading this correctly KABE doesnt go above 30.8° during the storm? http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_kabe.txt That is the highest synoptic-hour temperature. It could sneak warmer in between of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That is the highest synoptic-hour temperature. It could sneak warmer in between of course. Great:) thanks also, according to soundings, 850's are above freezing, given the below freezing surface, does that indicate sleet or freezing rain? and how would you indicate the difference between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS faster and colder. Snowing everywhere except south Jersey at 57. Already 1-2" NW of I-95 at that point. Edit: All frozen for all of SE PA, even Philly. All snow in the suburbs and farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Noticed some areas out in Chester County around the West Goshen area had brine on the roads already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah that's a pretty big cold shift on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow. MUCH more info on Saturday in NYC forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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