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Wintry potential Saturday 1/21/2012


famartin

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The NAM has a decent initialization on soundings... of note is that it is not quite catching the warm push between 750 and 800 mb (i.e., temps are a bit warmer than the initialization). Sleet fest? (cue Rib's enthusiastic cheers)

The nam just seems to have a fzra bias over other ptypes this winter (around here anyway). Don't stop now.

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From some of these higher res "specialty" models people have been posting, seems like some of them have highly localized areas with the higher end accumulations (4" as compared to 1-2")....wondering if any of this is due to pockets where overcoming dry air will take longer, and wondering are there any higher res models that do a good job of accounting for pockets of erosion of precip shield tying to overcome that dry air? any insight is appreciated. What caught my attention is that some of these lollipops don't seem to be related to elevation.

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