dssbss Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Any thought to the advisory being raised to a warning for Berks lehigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 4-5" for immediate burbs NW and 3-4" Philly. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Any thought to the advisory being raised to a warning for Berks lehigh I could see them adding warnings for LV, poconos, berks. South of there continue advisory criteria maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 our 1st real 2012 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 our 1st real 2012 snow Just steamrolling this way. It will definitely be an interesting 12+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 our 1st real 2012 snow OK, made an obs thread... http://www.americanw...ice-obs-thread/ I think I'll go back to sleep now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like a few hours of zr/ip for the immed. S&E suburbs of Phila.... gonna be a tight precip type based gradient possible....like bala cynwyd 3"...airport 1"...the northbound lanes of 295 half inch of slop :-P livin on the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Winter storm watch in ABE cancelled and changed to an advisory instead.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 320 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-211000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.120121T0600Z-120122T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.120121T0600Z-120121T2200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 320 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have a question. Seems like storms always move out faster then modeled. Could this happen here and possibly limit the change over in the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM's thoughts by 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 man, it is hard to read those maps, those colors all look the same NAM's thoughts by 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 gonna be a tight precip type based gradient possible....like bala cynwyd 3"...airport 1"...the northbound lanes of 295 half inch of slop :-P livin on the edge business as usual for us jersey boys...I keep looking at the RUC on the NCEP site and the 850s stay cold enough down to S DE. Not sure how much to believe it though when comparing it to the NAM/GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 man, it is hard to read those maps, those colors all look the same ur in a shade of blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Winter storm watch in ABE cancelled and changed to an advisory instead.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 320 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-211000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.120121T0600Z-120122T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.120121T0600Z-120121T2200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 320 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. I just saw that too. Although earlier AFD mentioned about approaching warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 gotta question the accuracy of the snowfall output maps that the NAM is generating for some of us (mainly the city). Hard to get 3-4" of snow in Philly when the NAM is showing a changeover by 6-7 AM and only having it snow 3-4 hrs...you'd have to get an inch an hour...that's a helluva thump on the front end... http://www.meteo.psu...4_18z/cld17.gif If you're in the city (not Mount Airy), you probably should expect one inch of snow and be happy if the changeover doesn't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have a question. Seems like storms always move out faster then modeled. Could this happen here and possibly limit the change over in the southern areas. That is possible... of course the changeover is often modelled slower than reality too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 business as usual for us jersey boys...I keep looking at the RUC on the NCEP site and the 850s stay cold enough down to S DE. Not sure how much to believe it though when comparing it to the NAM/GFS... Gotta go with whatever model shows the most snow!! seriously though, this close to the storm, you have to use the shorter term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It will be real interesting to see where the snow/sleet/frz rain line is at 12z Sat. morning. 18z NAM would "suggest" its creeping northward somewhere near the PA Turnpike and across I-195 in Jersey. Pretty much if I wake up to sleet at 7-8am tomorrow......not a good sign for SE PA snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I just saw that too. Although earlier AFD mentioned about approaching warning criteria. Watch was probably up because of an icing threat. Since area in their Forecast area will be only 3-6" no need for a warning. If we had Icing as well, i believe they would have gone with a warning. Heck, I'll take an advisory instead of what's been out the last 3 months! Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 at least we dont have to deal with sun angle, daylight savings time or leap day yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 at least we dont have to deal with sun angle, daylight savings time or leap day yet Did you steal that line from the NYC subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Both NYC and Mt. Holly NWS offices have gone with Winter Weather Advisories, only, for up to 6" of snow, with the assumption being that 6" won't be attained, generally, as would be needed to post winter storm warnings (very minor point, really). Looks like basically all snow north of about I-78 (4-7" worth) and for most of NYC metro, with sleet and maybe freezing rain only mixing in south of I-78 and in the coastal NYC boroughs/LI, near the end, as temps warm a bit. More like 3-5" south of I-78 down to about I-195 and across to about Philly, with 1-3" south of a Philly to about Asbury Park line (with the lesser amounts towards the coast). Could also be 1/4" of sleet and/or 0.1" of freezing rain on top of the snow in areas where enough warm air comes in at mid-levels of the atmosphere to melt the falling snow from above (and then it freezes on its final descent through sub-freezing air near the surface, forming sleet, or freezes on contact as freezing rain if the sub-freezing layer is very shallow, i.e., tens of feet). Fortunately, for travelers any freezing rain will be during daylight hours, when major roads will have warmed above freezing, due to the indirect sunlight, travel and salt, so I would only expect issues on backroads. I'm guessing there is just not enough moisture availabe for warnings, as there looks to be enough cold air in place in most areas. I'll still be ecstatic with 3-5" in my backyard, given how crappy this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 at least we dont have to deal with sun angle, daylight savings time or leap day yet Yeah that extra hour of sun during daylight savings time would have been a tipping point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Could someone tell me where I can find NWS snow-fall map for the current threat? I am sifting through their site with no luck . Thank you! Edit: Nevermind, JUST found it! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Could someone tell me where I can find NWS snow-fall map for the current threat? I am sifting through their site with no luck . Thank you! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have a question. Seems like storms always move out faster then modeled. Could this happen here and possibly limit the change over in the southern areas. Models initialize on their first guesses (6hr fcsts that they use to compare and contrast with what the actual soundings show) and if they start having a slow bias with an event its tough for them to "catch up". A faster solution would translate into less warming aloft, but probably overall less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa..../stormtotal.php They've upped the totals I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS looks similar to the NAM. Looks like all frozen in SE PA, and hopefully a good thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS looks similar to the NAM. Looks like all frozen in SE PA, and hopefully a good thump of snow. Lets hope its snow vs. sleet. Could be the difference between 2 inches of snow and 5 inches of snow. 18Z GFS soundings looks great at 09z & 12z just NW of Philly (waiting on 15z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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