tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yes the 6, 12, 24 hr fcsts are for the preceding 6, 12, 24 hours qpf ending at that time. I'd have to check those other nam maps, I know on the sfc progs even though its 3 hr time steps, its six hr qpf. i think twisterdata gives 3 hr qpf maps at least that's what they advertise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 poconos still should hold on for nice snow?? then sleet/ice? Doubt it, mostly snow for all purposes unless the models REALLY trend warmer. Dew Points are in the single digits, this air mass is dry which by de facto makes it snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 only thing i dont like about the nam and gfs is now they are showing a frz rain threat instead of sleet for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think anywhere in Chester county goes over to rain, frz rain and sleet are a possiblity although. I think that's right, as much as the NAM and GFS have warmed the upper levels, surface temps. don't budge throughout the precip. event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 only thing i dont like about the nam and gfs is now they are showing a frz rain threat instead of sleet for some. Yeah, not a good sign, espcially for the Delaware Valley region. Not sure about PHL airport area/Center City....but just north/west of there that could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, not a good sign, espcially for the Delaware Valley region. Not sure about PHL airport area/Center City....but just north/west of there that could be an issue. yea its rough to hold frz rain in the city and the airport but just outside with a little elevation could be different...also remember the surface usually warms slower than predicted while mid levels go quicker in most cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know I saw this in a thread on the main forum, but can anyone help me out with the precip on the NAM maps from NCEP? At 6, 12, 18, and 24 hours, I assume that the 6-hour precip total is for the 6-hour period preceding that time. So the 6-hour precip at hour 6 of the run is the precip that falls between hour 0 and hour 6. What about hours 3, 9, 15, and 21? Does the same rule apply? I seem to remember someone on the main forum (dtk?) who explained that the NAM precip on the NCEP maps was different than the GFS precip on the NCEP maps. I've only had one capuccino today, so I hope my question isn't too confusing. On the ncep site it looks like at 3, 9, 15 hrs the same rules are applying. The only place to be careful if you are following the 1000-500mb thickness and maybe the 10m selections, those are six hr qpfs even though they are 3 hr time steps. I believe the same apply for the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 this isn't good from the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yea its rough to hold frz rain in the city and the airport but just outside with a little elevation could be different...also remember the surface usually warms slower than predicted while mid levels go quicker in most cases I hate ice. Getting close to 32F helps during the day at least helps. With snow on the ground I doubt anyone with any elevation sees rain in the local PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 this isn't good from the nam That's just ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hope this ends up as sleet and not zr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wish all of you could see the goofy grin Adam keeps giving me based off the 12z GFS.... all you need to do to shut his yapper is show him his thoughts for this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Whew.. .5" ice would be bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Whew.. .5" ice would be bad news. i doubt that happens...temps would be in the 31 range probably and with those precip rates it would run off faster than it accumulates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i really see a zr problem here, even in the city itself, it is going to be hard to get those surface temps up tomorrow, but the mid-levels definitely are looking toasty...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 saturday night could be trciky though with some left over ll moisture and temps plumetting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Saw this link posted by ohleary in the MA sub-forum. He called it an "op NAM fire wx nest". Not sure how to interpret in view of other model output, but it sure looks like a lot of ice for Northern Delaware. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_ptype_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah, saw that, how much qpf roughly? saturday night could be trciky though with some left over ll moisture and temps plumetting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah, saw that, how much qpf roughly? not much, but it doesnt take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Saw this link posted by ohleary in the MA sub-forum. He called it an "op NAM fire wx nest". Not sure how to interpret in view of other model output, but it sure looks like a lot of ice for Northern Delaware. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_ptype_animate_1h.html That wouldn't be good (lots of freezing rain) for the lower Delaware Valley/northern DE....atleast its more sleet north of the PA Turnpike on that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 fwiw the ukie is the same maybe a hair colder at 850s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 fwiw the ukie is the same maybe a hair colder at 850s.. What did the RGEM show? It has been a colder model the past few days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 warmest period for 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What did the RGEM show? It has been a colder model the past few days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we need the gem to verify. looks like pocono grill is the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM text output shows half the storm as FR RN even in my area. RGEM and Ukie do look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Saw this link posted by ohleary in the MA sub-forum. He called it an "op NAM fire wx nest". Not sure how to interpret in view of other model output, but it sure looks like a lot of ice for Northern Delaware. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_ptype_animate_1h.html Especially for those with less elevation and closer to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we need the gem to verify. looks like pocono grill is the jackpot. Still looks all snow up here in NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM text output shows half the storm as FR RN even in my area. RGEM and Ukie do look better. Yup. Right on the fence. Thanks for posting the RGEM Tombo, still a colder look to it, but a tad warmer than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lol @ this map. Totally disregarding the ZR threat. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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