tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 wrf 0z accum snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 wrf 0z accum snowmap Hope as much of the precip makes it over the Alleghanies as projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Isnt that usually the worse case. Unless you have temps in the 20 with steady rain that frz drizzle allows for it to accumulate instead of running off when you get a steadier rain. That has been my experience. I also think freezing rain tends to be more dangerous than ice pellets. But that could just be an opinion and not an actual fact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I agree with the consensus about freezing rain being more dangerous than sleet. You might need an hour or more of sleet before things get truly dangerous, while freezing rain is a menace almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 wrf 0z accum snowmap Don't really believe it, but nice to see that 5-6" blob over MBY. At least ground will be frozen so plowing the gravel church parking lot won't be the challenge that it is when thawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Don't really believe it, but nice to see that 5-6" blob over MBY. At least ground will be frozen so plowing the gravel church parking lot won't be the challenge that it is when thawed. yea the nam is coming in with more of an ice threat for the immediate burbs on north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ice makes sense given the swfe and wave riding along the warm frontal boundary. Classic 93-94 scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yea the nam is coming in with more of an ice threat for the immediate burbs on north and west if it is more ice at least we are not going into an arctic plunge post storm so quick melt off is a positive Ice makes sense given the swfe and wave riding along the warm frontal boundary. Classic 93-94 scenario. minus the arctic air after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ice makes sense given the swfe and wave riding along the warm frontal boundary. Classic 93-94 scenario. yea i think the city will get an inch or so of snow, but i think ice is the bigger issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Elevation may help keep it more snow than ice, I remember in 94 that was the case many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Elevation may help keep it more snow than ice, I remember in 94 that was the case many times. no, not this case...the issue isnt the surface its in the 800-850mb region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know I saw this in a thread on the main forum, but can anyone help me out with the precip on the NAM maps from NCEP? At 6, 12, 18, and 24 hours, I assume that the 6-hour precip total is for the 6-hour period preceding that time. So the 6-hour precip at hour 6 of the run is the precip that falls between hour 0 and hour 6. What about hours 3, 9, 15, and 21? Does the same rule apply? I seem to remember someone on the main forum (dtk?) who explained that the NAM precip on the NCEP maps was different than the GFS precip on the NCEP maps. I've only had one capuccino today, so I hope my question isn't too confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just got a look at the 12Z NAM Soundings and that Sat. 12z-15z period when the precip. is coming down heavy looks like alot of sleet and/or freezing rain for the Delaware Valley......yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wish all of you could see the goofy grin Adam keeps giving me based off the 12z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Does anyone know if NAM or GFS text soundings are available for Mount Pocono, Tobyhanna or Gouldsboro? Thanks much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wish all of you could see the goofy grin Adam keeps giving me based off the 12z GFS.... cell phone pic, now! is the NYC forum going to have a melt down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 looks like 30hr gfs 540 line around abe or futher north 24 hr around abe ruh roh for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wish all of you could see the goofy grin Adam keeps giving me based off the 12z GFS.... That's not a snow loving grin... is it? trended warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks icy for eastern PA on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's not a snow loving grin... is it? trended warmer? yes a good bit warmer, still a good amount of frozen/freezing, but phl and nearby burbs flip to rain now...always with swfe late north trends to be expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yes a good bit warmer, still a good amount of frozen/freezing, but phl and nearby burbs flip to rain now...always with swfe late north trends to be expected Surface temps. remain below 32 (atleast for now) from about the PA Turnpike north. Of course, that can trend north (or south) before tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Both 12z NAM/GFS soundings between 12z-15z Sat. in SE PA look very similar. Major flood of warm air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still a significant front end dump...n and w of 95. I am actually in Ft Lauderdale about to board for home....76 and sunny here....Adam would like it here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 poconos still should hold on for nice snow?? then sleet/ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I knew I shouldn't have bought that sled for my son this morning Hopefully it will correct the other way at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still a significant front end dump...n and w of 95. I am actually in Ft Lauderdale about to board for home....76 and sunny here....Adam would like it here! 3-6 hours of snow, then 3-6 hours of sleet/freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still a significant front end dump...n and w of 95. I am actually in Ft Lauderdale about to board for home....76 and sunny here....Adam would like it here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know I saw this in a thread on the main forum, but can anyone help me out with the precip on the NAM maps from NCEP? At 6, 12, 18, and 24 hours, I assume that the 6-hour precip total is for the 6-hour period preceding that time. So the 6-hour precip at hour 6 of the run is the precip that falls between hour 0 and hour 6. What about hours 3, 9, 15, and 21? Does the same rule apply? I seem to remember someone on the main forum (dtk?) who explained that the NAM precip on the NCEP maps was different than the GFS precip on the NCEP maps. I've only had one capuccino today, so I hope my question isn't too confusing. Yes the 6, 12, 24 hr fcsts are for the preceding 6, 12, 24 hours qpf ending at that time. I'd have to check those other nam maps, I know on the sfc progs even though its 3 hr time steps, its six hr qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Both 12z NAM/GFS soundings between 12z-15z Sat. in SE PA look very similar. Major flood of warm air aloft. yea the low has trended stronger and further north...need it to remain weaker and further south...i still think and i have said this all along ice is the bigger issue for philly and immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think anywhere in Chester county goes over to rain, frz rain and sleet are a possiblity although. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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