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Wintry potential Saturday 1/21/2012


famartin

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fyi

the Euro has been very inconsistent with this storm out here, waffling between 0.20" and 0.50" almost every run. Only the NAM has been worse, and even then only slightly worse.

Don't ignore it or anything, but maybe weight it a little less than normal for this one.

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Wouldn't surprise to see 3-5" north of Morgantown-Trenton where I had my 2-4 yesterday...consensus is really pushing to front end thump that ends as freezing drizzly type mush.

Above I-78 3-6/4-7 look good...I wouldn't go much above 7 as a high end on this outside of the lollipop or two or weenie who can't measure snow right.

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The latest roundup:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

639 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

PAZ024-033>035-202100-

/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.120121T0000Z-120121T1500Z/

CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...

MCCONNELLSBURG

639 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING

TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-

CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS

OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF THE

PRECIPITATION.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...

AND THE HEAVY ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES COULD LEAD TO

WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 20S DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE

WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD

USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA

SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE

YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR

YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST

UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...

WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY

IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY

SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN

LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW

WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE

DAY SATURDAY.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW

JERSEY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL PREDOMINANTLY IN

THE FORM OF SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE

BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST

PENNSYLVANIA AND A GOOD CHUNK OF NEW JERSEY...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT CHANGES TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY

AFTERNOON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...AS WELL AS A COATING OF ICE...IS

EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ060-067>069-202215-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.120121T0600Z-120121T1800Z/

HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-

BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...

NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...

DOYLESTOWN

346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN

CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH

UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FALLING

WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL

GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN ALL RAIN AS

TEMPERATURES GET JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY DRIVING AND WALKING...ESPECIALLY

ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS NEED TO USE

CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE ICY

SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-027-PAZ070-071-202215-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.120121T0600Z-120121T1500Z/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-

GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-

SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD...

SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...

MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...

MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA

346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...A PORTION OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN

DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND

SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH

LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND

CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY

CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN ALL RAIN AS

TEMPERATURES GET JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY DRIVING AND WALKING...ESPECIALLY

ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS NEED TO USE

CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE ICY

SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-202215-

/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.A.0001.120121T0600Z-120122T0000Z/

WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN...

BETHLEHEM...EASTON

346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NEW

JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH

UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING....SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FALLING

WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL

GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED

ROADWAYS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-202215-

/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.120121T0600Z-120122T0000Z/

SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG

346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG

WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FALLING

WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO SATURDAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH

SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED

ROADWAYS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

208 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

OHZ039-040-048>050-057>059-PAZ021-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-

201515-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0002.120121T0000Z-120121T1800Z/

TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-

GUERNSEY-BELMONT-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-

HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...

UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...

STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY...

ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE...

BRIDGEPORT...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...

DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...

WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...

LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...

TORONTO...WEIRTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE

208 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM

EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND

SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST

SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF

SNOW.

* TIMING...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE

TO ICE ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH SLEET AND SNOW. HEAVY ICE

ACCUMULATION CAN DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE WILL MAKE

TRAVEL HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION

TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-

6772.

&&

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

208 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-201515-

/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.120121T0300Z-120121T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0002.120121T0000Z-120121T1800Z/

GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...

DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...

FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG

208 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM

EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND

SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST

SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF

SNOW.

* TIMING...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE

TO ICE ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH SLEET AND SNOW. HEAVY ICE

ACCUMULATION CAN DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE WILL MAKE

TRAVEL HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION

TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-

6772.

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Current Wxsim module a little more bullish on snow amounts then most forecasts for NW Chester County....here is the rundown:

- Snow begins around midnight temp 25.9

- Moderate Snow by 3am - temp 25.1

- Heavy Snow by 5:00am - snow on the ground by 6am - 3" to 5"

- Heavy Snow continues through 9:30am then diminishes toward moderate with a change to some IP and ZR by 11am (6" to 8") snow before mix/change

- ZR at 12noon with a temp at 29.1

- Precip ends as -ZR by 1pm

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Wouldn't surprise to see 3-5" north of Morgantown-Trenton where I had my 2-4 yesterday...consensus is really pushing to front end thump that ends as freezing drizzly type mush.

Above I-78 3-6/4-7 look good...I wouldn't go much above 7 as a high end on this outside of the lollipop or two or weenie who can't measure snow right.

Can't argue about that, especially at this point. I think any place south of Morgantown-Collegeville-Hatboro-Trenton should stay below 3 inches based on the current model concensus. Anything over 3 inches near or south of there I would consider a major "win" with this storm.

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Current Wxsim module a little more bullish on snow amounts then most forecasts for NW Chester County....here is the rundown:

- Snow begins around midnight temp 25.9

- Moderate Snow by 3am - temp 25.1

- Heavy Snow by 5:00am - snow on the ground by 6am - 3" to 5"

- Heavy Snow continues through 9:30am then diminishes toward moderate with a change to some IP and ZR by 11am (6" to 8") snow before mix/change

- ZR at 12noon with a temp at 29.1

- Precip ends as -ZR by 1pm

Thanks for the update.

Looks like best ski day this season.

Heading up to Blue early am.

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when is blue not icy? ;)

hope razor's is not closed tomorrow for races.

cold temps last few nights so hope they made some.

usually best conditions 1st 2 hrs.

should be their best ski day so far?

back to topic....

When? After a dump…for a few hours at least.

Razor closed Sunday….not Sat…..

For Blue yes……best day so far…..

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I'm glad this event is looking like more snow than ice for my area. I don't mind wintry weather and I'm having a blast forecasting it, but I've seen what damage ice storms can do. My main concern is that the warm boundary layer moves in sooner and we receive more ice than snow.

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I'm glad this event is looking like more snow than ice for my area. I don't mind wintry weather and I'm having a blast forecasting it, but I've seen what damage ice storms can do. My main concern is that the warm boundary layer moves in sooner and we receive more ice than snow.

yea, thats always a legit concern and happens a lot of times. Though i think the saving grace would be this looks like more of a sleet issue than frz rain.

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The worse ice storm I can remember down in Virginia was a freezing rain event, only it wasn't a real steady rain it was more of a misty rain that lasted almost all day. We lost power for days with that storm.

Isnt that usually the worse case. Unless you have temps in the 20 with steady rain that frz drizzle allows for it to accumulate instead of running off when you get a steadier rain.

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