famartin Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Its pretty "thread the needle". If the GFS and EC stay right where they are, PHL metro gets a couple inches of snow. If they trend north, it ends up more rain. South, its just flurries. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 sleet for some ftw as well. might as well include a chance of it (to placate rib and just because) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Another thread the needle snow would be perfect for Sat.....in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Definetely cutting it close Saturday with things........I'm just about more excited at the flurry potential for Thur. night at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS is cold rainstorm for us.. Lehigh valley and poconos are still game. Could be a slosh fest though. You have a CAD sig show up. 850's retreat more N&W than the 2m temps.. not a lengthy distance, but ,as typical, a narrow corridor of ice between the two aforementioned points have the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 From this mornings Mt Holly discussion: THE COLUMN LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY...JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS (EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY) LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS...THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REACT TO THE PASSING SURFACE WAVE (WHICH NEVER SEEMS TO SPIN UP UNTIL IT IS PAST OUR LATITUDE). THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SPREAD MAKES DETERMINING HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL OCCUR...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR NOW FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA IN THE MORNING. 0000 UTC GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLUMN COULD GO ISOTHERMAL. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH EVEN THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS THIS FAR OUT WOULD BE HARD TO IMPROVE UPON. IT DOES HOWEVER APPEAR THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. I'm going all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS is cold rainstorm for us.. Lehigh valley and poconos are still game. Could be a slosh fest though. You have a CAD sig show up. 850's retreat more N&W than the 2m temps.. not a lengthy distance, but ,as typical, a narrow corridor of ice between the two aforementioned points have the potential. It shows some snow for the burbs of philly and more into chester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z euro still showing a couple inches from m/d line north, though its a little warmer than 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah, PHL changes to rain verbatim on this EC run as opposed to 0Z which was probably all snow, if barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z euro still showing a couple inches from m/d line north, though its a little warmer than 0z run. Yeah, the weenie snowfall maps on Wunderground are showing 2-3" N and W and surface temps below freezing. I'd take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah, the weenie snowfall maps on Wunderground are showing 2-3" N and W and surface temps below freezing. I'd take that and run. Hopefully some part of our region cashes in with a few inches of snow........easier said than done this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not really sure how much i want to sink my teeth into what the 12 Z ECM is showing UKMET looks like it would be warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not really sure how much i want to sink my teeth into what the 12 Z ECM is showing UKMET looks like it would be warmer.. Yup, very hard to get excited about this right now based on many models showing warmer scenarios compared to the Euro + the fact this winter has been complete garbage thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Am not surprised to see north and warmer trend kick in.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yup, very hard to get excited about this right now based on many models showing warmer scenarios compared to the Euro + the fact this winter has been complete garbage thus far. Not really exciting yet, but if we could get 1-2" out of it even, that would be nice. Perhaps the GFS is over-phasing a bit - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Am not surprised to see north and warmer trend kick in.., And the beat rolls on 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Bah! For Saturday, the 18Z GFS verbatim gives Northern DE and the southern portion of SEPA (including Philly) plain cold rain with no snow to start. My apologies to folks in the northern portion of SEPA and in NEPA or NJ - it's too complicated for this novice wx geek to figure out p-types from the NCEP maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Fear not, there is still hope for a 1-2 hour flizzard Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 And the beat rolls on 18z gfs the GFS rarely fails to trend N and/or W 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 its the 18z so we are still fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 0z GFS is a weird run. It has rain from the clipper on Thursday night, but bucks the trend of warmer temps Saturday and now brings a nice wintry event for all of eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 0z GFS is a weird run. It has rain from the clipper on Thursday night, but bucks the trend of warmer temps Saturday and now brings a nice wintry event for all of eastern PA. Might want to take a close look... its mainly rain at PHL and the changeover line gets right up to ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually scratch that, the non-snow line gets up to the Pocs (had only looked at 925's and sfc temps, doh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Might want to take a close look... its mainly rain at PHL and the changeover line gets right up to ABE. It is a colder run than 18z and does bring some snow to the area. Hope it trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually scratch that, the non-snow line gets up to the Pocs (had only looked at 925's and sfc temps, doh). you're too technical! all i had to see was the big pv over alaska and greenland!!! in all seriousness... long range gfs looks terrible. Doesn't seem quite as warm as the Euro either. We'll see who wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 euro comes in a notch warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the one thing that the GFS has been relatively consistent in is a prolonged sleet/icy rain round across the upper N/W burbs & Lehigh Valley...it's shown this in a number of runs the last couple of days. EC shows it a lil bit (mostly over the mountains in Central PA) but I do think there's potential for a decent round of sleet/ice for some in the region. My guess would be lehigh valley, berks, Poconos would be the "best bet" for any prolonged sleet/icy rain...I think the burbs outside of ChescoWX, iceman56, and Quakertown would transition over to rain eventually. The "good" news is that this is a daytime event so unless it pours sleet ala March '07 travel might not be as piss poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the one thing that the GFS has been relatively consistent in is a prolonged sleet/icy rain round across the upper N/W burbs & Lehigh Valley...it's shown this in a number of runs the last couple of days. EC shows it a lil bit (mostly over the mountains in Central PA) but I do think there's potential for a decent round of sleet/ice for some in the region. My guess would be lehigh valley, berks, Poconos would be the "best bet" for any prolonged sleet/icy rain...I think the burbs outside of ChescoWX, iceman56, and Quakertown would transition over to rain eventually. The "good" news is that this is a daytime event so unless it pours sleet ala March '07 travel might not be as piss poor. Feb 2007. It was just before Valentines Day. Otherwise, I completely agree with your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Actually scratch that, the non-snow line gets up to the Pocs (had only looked at 925's and sfc temps, doh). euro comes in a notch warmer... No surprise there. 61 days til spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This thread title reads like a the TWC Local on the 8's. "On Saturday, Wintry conditions are possible" (insert graphic depicting snow, ice, sleet and wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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