ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That unstable sounding does imply some heavier bursts of snow. Lack of duration should keep amounts below advisory, but I think most people can pick up an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That unstable sounding does imply some heavier bursts of snow. Lack of duration should keep amounts below advisory, but I think most people can pick up an inch or two. I'll be sitting here praying being so far east results in a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Pretty widespread 2-3" of snow on the 0z nam for thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Pretyy widespread 2-3" of snow on the 0z nam for thurs Maybe it uberperforms to Blizz standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Maybe it uberperforms to Blizz standards loli's to 6"? Eastern maine would have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 1-2'' widespread seems pretty likely on the NAM with some totals of 3-4'' possible I would think. Nice burst of elevated instability aloft to go along with solid lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wish it were tracking further south...but as is, looks like one of those 2-3 hour bursts...the modeled soundings can change, but it looks like snow growth would be pretty efficient too. We saw just last night what a couple hours of efficient snow growth can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 loli's to 6"? Eastern maine would have a shot Yeah, Maine looks best attm. Ocean helps out a bit towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wish it were tracking further south...but as is, looks like one of those 2-3 hour bursts...the modeled soundings can change, but it looks like snow growth would be pretty efficient too. We saw just last night what a couple hours of efficient snow growth can do. Yeah NAM looks like a solid 1-2" lollis to 3 kind of deal. With the track not under us we're not going to see a huge improvement from what the NAM shows I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wish it were tracking further south...but as is, looks like one of those 2-3 hour bursts...the modeled soundings can change, but it looks like snow growth would be pretty efficient too. We saw just last night what a couple hours of efficient snow growth can do. Do you think the system passing over the Great Lakes will help us? SSTA's are running warmer than normal so I would think that should enhance the llvl moisture a bit and the lift over our region looks decent. Why I'm thinking we should see some isolated 3-4'' totals. RH fields do look fairly juicy, especially for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hopefully it does the dirty work by creating some blocking such that the overrunning Saturday keeps the boundary south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wish it were tracking further south...but as is, looks like one of those 2-3 hour bursts...the modeled soundings can change, but it looks like snow growth would be pretty efficient too. We saw just last night what a couple hours of efficient snow growth can do. Yeah, I was kind of surprised up here we got a quick 2.5" in a couple of hours this am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hopefully it does the dirty work by creating some blocking such that the overrunning Saturday keeps the boundary south of us. Date the ugly friend to get to the hot one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'd put a bet on someone getting a surprise just like last night...maybe a spot 4 amount like others are saying. Maybe a little more moisture to work with than is being modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Admit it, you love itScrew those rain wrapped EF5s That's a tough act to beat I gotta say. I would put a blizzard above a tornado. But so far this life, I can only check off EF5 tornado, and not a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00z GFS looks pretty good for a solid band of moderate snow...really not a whole lot to say about this event in terms of its complexity...looking at a 2-4 hour period of snow that will probably drop 1-2"...maybe some people get lucky with 3" spots as there is enough instability hinted on the soundings where we could see some pockets of heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2-3" IMBY....sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SREF's have decent 1" probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2-3" IMBY....sweet. yeap, I think we do better Sat. 0z gfs still looks good for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SREFs suck here...but I don't even care...they always rim the N ORH hills, regardless of the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SREFs suck here...but I don't even care...they always rim the N ORH hills, regardless of the set up. They aren't the greatest when they try and warm the low levels a bit too much. The other night they had 0% for 1"+ in Boston 2 hours before the event started. There could be some marginal BL conditions along the south coast and Cape Island, but I don't think it will be much issue there. Itsnot going to be a cold snow with the southerly flow, but probably a 30F type snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 They aren't the greatest when they try and warm the low levels a bit too much. The other night they had 0% for 1"+ in Boston 2 hours before the event started. There could be some marginal BL conditions along the south coast and Cape Island, but I don't think it will be much issue there. Itsnot going to be a cold snow with the southerly flow, but probably a 30F type snow there. Yea, it seems like the SREFs are incapable of supplying the cp with a higher probabilty than the hills....or at least is seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00z EURO bumped up QPF, esp for eastern MA/RI. I'd go 1-2" WNE. 2-3" E SNE, lolly to 4" Much of ME looks good for 2-4/3-6" Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 4" would be a stretch...Euro maybe puts out 0.15"-0.20" LE in the most favored spots of E SNE...at most. It was nice to see it bump up, but I still think 1-2" is the prudent call and hope for some spot higher amounts. You want to see a bit more sfc development to the south before going for amounts that would be borderline advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 00z EURO bumped up QPF, esp for eastern MA/RI. I'd go 1-2" WNE. 2-3" E SNE, lolly to 4" Much of ME looks good for 2-4/3-6" Lock it up! Works for me... can't complain especially after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nice little bump up on the models. 1-3" maybe? Boundary layer me get questionable here, but seems like we would wetbulb to 31 or 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2 storm threats at the same time. Unheard of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2 storm threats at the same time. Unheard of this winter. Funny to call them storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like a lock for you, Eric. I think you'll get a few. It's even giving me a near lock on an inch. Something to remember winter by as I drive to BDL for a 5:30 flight, ftl. Flakes flying and 29.5/21. Things are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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