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The Thursday night Special


Damage In Tolland

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It's sort of an unstable look to the soundings too. High TTs mean good lapse rates in this event. Could be something where HYA is 37 and gets a good band of snow and goes to 32 or something. It would be better for the clipper to develop further se, for our friends in the se part of the state....and for all of us as well.

i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that.

i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen.

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i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that.

i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen.

speculation based on today but would have to have one of two (or both) things happen i think: 1) guidance too quick in retreating the BL cold and too aggressive with ll warmth and/or 2) good steady precip rates (+ some melting) can work some vertical drag and push the freezing line to the surface.

if it's light i think it goes -s to -r

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i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that.

i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen.

Yeah I know..I mentioned a few posts back that there could be ptype issues. Even up here, I don't like seeing the flow too strong, but maybe it will be more east. If we can get more of a warmfront to the south to back the flow a bit..it would help.

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Yeah I know..I mentioned a few posts back that there could be ptype issues. Even up here, I don't like seeing the flow too strong, but maybe it will be more east. If we can get more of a warmfront to the south to back the flow a bit..it would help.

that would probably be enough yeah. just feed in a bit more cool/dry air from departing HP.

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Looks like 1-2" for areas away from the south coast. With a weakening s/w passing well north, its tough to get great dynamics into SNE. MAYBE someone in the Berks, greens, or Manadnocks can eek out 5" with great ratios and enhanced qpf. looks like 1-3" with up to 4" in VT and NH as well with temps near 20F and some enhanced precip.

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Looks like 1-2" for areas away from the south coast. With a weakening s/w passing well north, its tough to get great dynamics into SNE. MAYBE someone in the Berks, greens, or Manadnocks can eek out 5" with great ratios and enhanced qpf. looks like 1-3" with up to 4" in VT and NH as well with temps near 20F and some enhanced precip.

the system peaks in the midwest and there's hardly a baroclinic zone to speak of

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i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that.

i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen.

We wetbulbed last night and I had a trace after midnight last night. I kind of wonder about the same things...39ish and then it drops after 35% of the precip is gone. Not excited for here at all, expecting little or nothing as of now.

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the system peaks in the midwest and there's hardly a baroclinic zone to speak of

Agree completely. moisture starved until it tries to spin something up off the coast of Maine...there 3-5" is possible I'd say. SNE will have many reports of coatings to 2". Maybe someone will get lucky, but its too far out to say who. Saturday looks ok for inland SNE on the 18z goofus LOL

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