Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's sort of an unstable look to the soundings too. High TTs mean good lapse rates in this event. Could be something where HYA is 37 and gets a good band of snow and goes to 32 or something. It would be better for the clipper to develop further se, for our friends in the se part of the state....and for all of us as well. i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that. i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Last question Bobby I promise...What is the tapatalk app under for categories? I think if you just searched in general it will come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What are we looking at here in RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think if you just searched in general it will come up. tapatalk is an option as well but the photobucket method is free. and its a lot easier then it sounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that. i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen. speculation based on today but would have to have one of two (or both) things happen i think: 1) guidance too quick in retreating the BL cold and too aggressive with ll warmth and/or 2) good steady precip rates (+ some melting) can work some vertical drag and push the freezing line to the surface. if it's light i think it goes -s to -r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that. i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen. Yeah I know..I mentioned a few posts back that there could be ptype issues. Even up here, I don't like seeing the flow too strong, but maybe it will be more east. If we can get more of a warmfront to the south to back the flow a bit..it would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah I know..I mentioned a few posts back that there could be ptype issues. Even up here, I don't like seeing the flow too strong, but maybe it will be more east. If we can get more of a warmfront to the south to back the flow a bit..it would help. that would probably be enough yeah. just feed in a bit more cool/dry air from departing HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Last question Bobby I promise...What is the tapatalk app under for categories? Kev Photobucket it, I love it, Tapatalk resizes too small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Storm is too far north for any good snow, but maybe we can pick up a last minute burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Storm is too far north for any good snow, but maybe we can pick up a last minute burst of snow. 1-5"... lollis of 4-8 some to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Storm is too far north for any good snow, but maybe we can pick up a last minute burst of snow. so were not expecting much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Storm is too far north for any good snow, but maybe we can pick up a last minute burst of snow. We should all be able to grab some nice accumulating snows Thursday night..freshen things up for the Saturday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 1-5"... lollis of 4-8 some to 10. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 ugh I'm confusing myself now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think a general 1-5 inch snowfall should cover this..Again..some areas are to get a "nice" surprise. Remember that not if the surface low is weakening after being sub 1000mb in se canada. an inch or two at most for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 1-5"... lollis of 4-8 some to 10. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 not if the surface low is weakening after being sub 1000mb in se canada. an inch or two at most for everyone except you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 except you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1287455 you are right....it is a pathology...as is your trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 you are right....it is a pathology...as is your trolling. calling for 1-2" from a weak system is trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like 1-2" for areas away from the south coast. With a weakening s/w passing well north, its tough to get great dynamics into SNE. MAYBE someone in the Berks, greens, or Manadnocks can eek out 5" with great ratios and enhanced qpf. looks like 1-3" with up to 4" in VT and NH as well with temps near 20F and some enhanced precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like 1-2" for areas away from the south coast. With a weakening s/w passing well north, its tough to get great dynamics into SNE. MAYBE someone in the Berks, greens, or Manadnocks can eek out 5" with great ratios and enhanced qpf. looks like 1-3" with up to 4" in VT and NH as well with temps near 20F and some enhanced precip. the system peaks in the midwest and there's hardly a baroclinic zone to speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 i'm not a big fan of this set-up for this area. i'd like to see it dig more but i think it's getting late in the game for that. i don't like S flow...it's a funny set-up but i could definitely see it raining a bit along the extreme S coast of SE CT/RI/MA and especially the Cape/islands despite pretty low thickenesses. mid-levels are plenty cold but good S fetch off above normal SSTs could easily be a 38-40F situation. GFS is a bit cooler than the NAM...but i think both the NAM and EC would imply more liquid vs frozen. We wetbulbed last night and I had a trace after midnight last night. I kind of wonder about the same things...39ish and then it drops after 35% of the precip is gone. Not excited for here at all, expecting little or nothing as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 not if the surface low is weakening after being sub 1000mb in se canada. an inch or two at most for everyone There's going to be some last minute Atlantic moisture thrown back in on the SE flow. Nothing major but a nice swath of accumulating snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Ryan's boss on air tonite had 1-3 statewide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We should all be able to grab some nice accumulating snows Thursday night..freshen things up for the Saturday storm We could get a burst of snow..but I wouldn't be bullish with a track like that. Would think an inch or two..with a weenie 3" if that burst last long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the system peaks in the midwest and there's hardly a baroclinic zone to speak of Agree completely. moisture starved until it tries to spin something up off the coast of Maine...there 3-5" is possible I'd say. SNE will have many reports of coatings to 2". Maybe someone will get lucky, but its too far out to say who. Saturday looks ok for inland SNE on the 18z goofus LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We could get a burst of snow..but I wouldn't be bullish with a track like that. Would think an inch or two..with a weenie 3" if that burst last long enough. it's not really a clipper, it's an occluded fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 it's not really a clipper, it's an occluded fropa I mean, the low is tracking into Southern Quebec on recent runs...Most of the energy stays well north of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 1-5"... lollis of 4-8 some to 10. Amazing snow growth incoming with 60:1 or 80:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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