MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like I'm getting the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like a snowy snowy week..We've waited a long time for this.. Warmup/torch PHAIL LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * HIGH PRES FOR WEDNESDAY * SNOWY SYSTEM EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING * BRIEF REPRIEVE FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY * ANOTHER SNOWY SYSTEM POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT Nice. Your emotional rollercoaster has come full circle now, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Nice. Your emotional rollercoaster has come full circle now, haha. 3 decent snow events in a snowless winter. We'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm all for an overachiever! Let's turn Kevin inches into real inches! That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 think this one has a lot of work to do to be a whole lot in SNE....hopefully it trends the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Models signalling a nice late blooming clipper for Thursday nite. Looks like a 3-5 central SNE event..maybe 4-8 lollis to 10 east You're joking right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 You're joking right? Rev model bias ... reduce QPF figures by 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like I'm getting the shaft. take it like a man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 A ways out, but Saturday looks better... Friday morning looks like maybe an inch, esp for MPM/Pete and S VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 take it like a man... Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 You're joking right? No I think a solid 2-4..possibly 3-5 event is likely Thursday nite. Just like I wasn't joking when I told you 2 days ago we'd get 1-3 and you said we'd get nothing but ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 No I think a solid 2-4..possibly 3-5 event is likely Thursday nite. Just like I wasn't joking when I told you 2 days ago we'd get 1-3 and you said we'd get nothing but ice Any specific reasons you are throwing out numbers like that? GFS seemed to have the most and you love that model... even the Goofus didn't really show more than an inch or so. Jerry seems to think the same, but I can't figure out why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Any specific reasons you are throwing out numbers like that? GFS seemed to have the most and you love that model... even the Goofus didn't really show more than an inch or so. Jerry seems to think the same, but I can't figure out why These late blooming clippers are notorious for not looking good up until about 36 hours before the event. the fact that the models are printing out 1-2 inches now..means they are sniffing something out. There's a def inverted trough look to it. I think everyone gets a couple inches...and there's going to be some zone that gets a nice 3-6 or something like that. It's got the classic look of some our nice little events of yrs past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 These late blooming clippers are notorious for not looking good up until about 36 hours before the event. the fact that the models are printing out 1-2 inches now..means they are sniffing something out. There's a def inverted trough look to it. I think everyone gets a couple inches...and there's going to be some zone that gets a nice 3-6 or something like that. It's got the classic look of some our nice little events of yrs past Thanks! Your posts are so much more positive lately. Fun to be tracking legit things again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z NAM gives me diddly for QPF. 66 01/20 06Z 34 31 199 8 0.02 0.00 519 531 -8.1 -33.7 1015 100 -SN 005OVC124 0.2 14.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 No I think a solid 2-4..possibly 3-5 event is likely Thursday nite. Just like I wasn't joking when I told you 2 days ago we'd get 1-3 and you said we'd get nothing but ice You've backed off lollis of 4-8 and 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Is it trying to be a norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 You've backed off lollis of 4-8 and 10? Somewhat yes..but won't be surprised if some places in Eastern mass or NH get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Somewhat yes..but won't be surprised if some places in Eastern mass or NH get that For Thurs? 4-8" lolis to 10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 For Thurs? 4-8" lolis to 10"? Let's see what the next 24 hours do modelwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's never gonna be much, but I'll take another inch or two.... Let's see what the next 24 hours do modelwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 So far looks like a real late bloomer....hopefully the seals in the Gulf of Maine have their snow tires on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hopefully Phil posts his thoughts and accumulation ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This is looking more and more like a ME threat. A little enhancement as the secondary develops overhead and out into Mass Bay followed by an inverted trough signature up into Cool Spruce land possible depending upon where that trough sets up. 3-6" type stuff up there. Negligible down here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's your typical weak clipper. Probably 1-3" of warm advection snows from the lakes into Upstate NY and that dries up with only minor dustings further east until it gets some ocean juice in the eastern half of NE... So far looks like a real late bloomer....hopefully the seals in the Gulf of Maine have their snow tires on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This is looking more and more like a ME threat. A little enhancement as the secondary develops overhead and out into Mass Bay followed by an inverted trough signature up into Cool Spruce land possible depending upon where that trough sets up. 3-6" type stuff up there. Negligible down here in SNE. But, I want my 4-8 that Kevin promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think the further NE you are, the better with this setup. Maybe it develops in time for something more than a C-1.5" for areas NE of ORH-PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's your typical weak clipper. Probably 1-3" of warm advection snows from the lakes into Upstate NY and that dries up with only minor dustings further east until it gets some ocean juice in the eastern half of NE... Pretty fair analysis. I'd favor further N given the location of the vort coming out of the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Is it trying to be a norlun? Not a "true" Norlun, in my opinion. There were some previous runs of the GFS that kept the clipper on a more southerly track which threw back a Norlun-esque signal, but that has since morphed into a track further north and the precip extending into Maine now looks to be directly associated with the main low as opposed to a detached trough hanging back to the west/northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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