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The Thursday night Special


Damage In Tolland

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Agreed. With ratios likely to be pretty good (12:1 at least, maybe 15:1 or even 18:1?) I'll be disappointed with less than 2" despite the BOX snow map.

We could be looking at a disproportionally high impact on roadways if it comes in as a wall between 5-6 pm.

Timing really moved up and most news stations said it would start around 9pm. If it starts around 6pm it could cause problems...but I think it will hold off until 7-8.

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There could def be a bit of a hole in the snow in central/southern CT before the band intensifies to the east....some of the guidance has been showing it, but its not always certain. These little snow burstscan be tough to predict...especially near where they really start to ramp up.

Can't ignore those "holes" in the model QPF layouts, either... I remember clearly, Tony and I were musing how the GFS kept up with this "v-notch" where FIT-Ayer Mass was left out of the heavier snow. Cycle after cycle it did this, and it seemed so absurd considering the Boxing Day storm was what it was overall; we figured it was just some ...I don't know, bullshyt wave kinematic thing in the physics, where false DVM was being generated.

It verifeid with elacrity! We wound up with like 4 or 5 inches of what really amounted to an accumulation of snow-fog. Huge run-up waste of time that storm turned out to be for us. It was a huge silent coup for the GFS, which was the model that showed that the most. Very interesting.

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MAZ002-192100-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

715 AM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND

5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

Sky cover forecast a big time fail--overcast since about 8:00a.m.

Sun is in and out here, looking forward to a snow refresher tonight.

Still only 19F

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Timing really moved up and most news stations said it would start around 9pm. If it starts around 6pm it could cause problems...but I think it will hold off until 7-8.

Not sure of conditions elsewhere, but I posted earlier that my "sunny" forecast in both zfp and p/c has been one of varying density of overcast. A suggestion that things are on a faster time table. Hopefully early in, late out. But don't see that happening.

Hopefully the cold 17* at noon will translate to some decent ratios--that's what I'm banking on.

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