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The Thursday night Special


Damage In Tolland

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Looking at the sim radar on the NAM (a guilty pleasure of mine), I get the feeling instead of RI, E MA, and SE NH benefitting from being further E, it looks like when the low starts to crank as it reaches the Gulf of Maine that the precip will not "move" east so much as "jump" east. An idea to watch for (read: not be too surprised by) if radar echoes make it look like the stuff overhead is being eaten right up by the stuff offshore late Thursday night/early AM Friday.

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Looking at the sim radar on the NAM (a guilty pleasure of mine), I get the feeling instead of RI, E MA, and SE NH benefitting from being further E, it looks like when the low starts to crank as it reaches the Gulf of Maine that the precip will not "move" east so much as "jump" east. An idea to watch for (read: not be too surprised by) if radar echoes make it look like the stuff overhead is being eaten right up by the stuff offshore late Thursday night/early AM Friday.

I see that but man it is so close from blowing up over us! still time!

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I see that but man it is so close from blowing up over us! still time!

I'm not sure I think it's close to blowing up over us. Not for any substantial length of time, anyhow.

This feature has been consistent on several runs now and the total QPF forecasts seem reasonably lined up with it.

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They offered me 2-4", which is what I was expecting. I think you'll get a solid inch above my total. East is best in this one.

12z Euro was not overly impressed. Looks like a 1-3" type deal for many in E MA/NH/W ME. At least there could be some fluff factor to this.
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Here's the SREFs...also fwiw (nothing) by the end of the run (72hr) the srefs have decent 1" probs for Saturday and very light ~5% probs for 4" for parts of the area. That's not a bad signal for day 3.

f12s45.gif

That SREF prob map is what i was talking about, It shows the 4+ just to the east of here, Euro was not so bullish on qpf and Nam is usaully overdone

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1-3" in the point and click. I won't be up for it, but will be nice to wake up to fresh snow cover since my last 2" melted away last night. This should have staying power with a cold day Friday and more snow Saturday. :)

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

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Surprised to see BOX putting 2-4" in both my ZFP and P/C. WTIC in Hartford was calling for a dusting-2" in CT.

20.9/5

Super Mega Intergalactic Torch Fail. We've got such a perfect base to build on. We were just outside grooming the toboggan runs. Very fast, helmet now required.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 2. West wind between 10 and 13 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as -2. Southeast wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 7pm and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. South wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 23. West wind between 10 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: Snow likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.

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Super Mega Intergalactic Torch Fail. We've got such a perfect base to build on. We were just outside grooming the toboggan runs. Very fast, helmet now required.

Definitely not a torch, but that forecast puts you at about -1.5 to almost dead on normal for the four day stretch. With the way this winter has gone even a normal day feels brutally cold.

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Definitely not a torch, but that forecast puts you at about -1.5 to almost dead on normal for the four day stretch. With the way this winter has gone even a normal day feels brutally cold.

Meh, I like the cold so it feels good. If you work outside everyday you get used to working under a wide array of conditions.

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Looks like a C-1" in SW CT with a widespread 1"-3" in the rest of the state. Could see a 2"-4" swath from GC over towards the ORH hills...looks like Wachusett will do pretty good (maybe 3"-4"?) and then the other jackpot of 4"-6" on the midcoast of Maine slightly away from the water. Temps at 850mb and 700mb look good and cold for some good ratios away from the water in Maine, all of NNE and even into CNE.

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In order to get 4-5", I think you would want more of an OES contribution combined with developing overrunning..and then like 2-3 hrs of mod-hvy snow. That seems tough to do right now, but 3+ for someone isn't unrealistic..esp with good ratios. The 850-500 vv maps do try and show an extended period of snow, so something to watch.

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In order to get 4-5", I think you would want more of an OES contribution combined with developing overrunning..and then like 2-3 hrs of mod-hvy snow. That seems tough to do right now, but 3+ for someone isn't unrealistic..esp with good ratios. The 850-500 vv maps do try and show an extended period of snow, so something to watch.

if boston gets over 5" ill go on a dinner date in lynn

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