MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:28 AM, moneypitmike said: Looks like a lock for you, Eric. I think you'll get a few. It's even giving me a near lock on an inch. Something to remember winter by as I drive to BDL for a 5:30 flight, ftl. Flakes flying and 29.5/21. Things are looking good. I'm thinking 2-3" here with 3-4" up towards Dryslot and points north and east. I'm a tick too far west on this one. Downeast Maine gets slapped good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well AWT and as I've been preaching for days..the models never do well with the qpf on these clippers until you get about 36 hours before the event. Looks like a solid 2-4 inch event for all of SNE and again..there will be some 3-6 inch amounts..Just not sure where yet..but best guess would be NE Mass up in SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:32 AM, CT Blizz said: Well AWT and as I've been preaching for days..the models never do well with the qpf on these clippers until you get about 36 hours before the event. Looks like a solid 2-4 inch event for all of SNE and again..there will be some 3-6 inch amounts..Just not sure where yet..but best guess would be NE Mass up in SNH :weenie: double bunner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:36 AM, CapeCodWeather.net said: :weenie: double bunner LOL...maybe but I don't think anyone should be surprised qpf has bumped up and will continue to do so today/tonught Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:37 AM, CT Blizz said: LOL...maybe but I don't think anyone should be surprised qpf has bumped up and will continue to do so today/tonught No it won't, it can only go up so much with a low track like that. Actually, it may get juiced up the further east you go due to Atlantic inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:37 AM, CT Blizz said: LOL...maybe but I don't think anyone should be surprised qpf has bumped up and will continue to do so today/tonught lol....well yeah it could bump more... but we are literally talking a bump so far from like .06 to .12...it's got a ways to go yet to be able to spit out lollies to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS is pretty darn aggressive, the more I look at it. Almost has snow from 00z-10z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:54 AM, CT Blizz said: Yup Did you look or are you just being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 11:56 AM, CoastalWx said: Did you look or are you just being a I am going to guess the latter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This will be an interesting exercise in ptype out here. Can it be liquid with a CT of 522 and h85 temps of -6C? Don't even flirt with any borderline CT values...but the immediate BL is modeled quite mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:55 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: This will be an interesting exercise in ptype out here. Can it be liquid with a CT of 522 and h85 temps of -6C? Don't even flirt with any borderline CT values...but the immediate BL is modeled quite mild. Hopefully you guys can overcome that BL and stay snow. The airmass isn't quite as cold as the one we just had earlier this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like the GFS has a 1-2" lollies 3 deal in CT/RI/SE MA with a 2-3" deal up into NE MA, SW NH, and S ME AWT. GC still gets 6" somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I thought the GFS was a terrrible model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:55 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: This will be an interesting exercise in ptype out here. Can it be liquid with a CT of 522 and h85 temps of -6C? Don't even flirt with any borderline CT values...but the immediate BL is modeled quite mild. Seems like it will come down to precip intensity and precip drag, like you mentioned yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:13 PM, messenger said: I thought the GFS was a terrrible model? hey hey hey only when it doesnt conform to the forecast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:13 PM, messenger said: I thought the GFS was a terrrible model? When the NAM gets in bed with it in a little bit here you'll eat your shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:27 PM, ChrisM said: When the NAM gets in bed with it in a little bit here you'll eat your shorts. The NAM and GFS could forecast a menage for me tonight with Halle Berry and Rebacca Romijn and I wouldn't get excited. I'll wait on the Euro and the NAM inside of 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM looks a bit healthier than it has the past couple runs, but its not as robust as the GFS or the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: NAM looks a bit healthier than it has the past couple runs, but its not as robust as the GFS or the Euro. Less than .25 aside of down here where's it pretty warm. Still though with good snow growth, cold temps and creative measuring that's 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Better qpf on the cape but still rather meh overall on the qpf 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:32 PM, messenger said: Less than .25 aside of down here where's it pretty warm. Still though with good snow growth, cold temps and creative slant stick measuring that's 5" fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:30 PM, messenger said: The NAM and GFS could forecast a menage for me tonight with Halle Berry and Rebacca Romijn and I wouldn't get excited. I'll wait on the Euro and the NAM inside of 24. NAM inside 24, wow that bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:30 PM, messenger said: The NAM and GFS could forecast a menage for me tonight with Halle Berry and Rebacca Romijn and I wouldn't get excited. I'll wait on the Euro and the NAM inside of 24. I'm with you on this one. I'm encouraged that the euro shows more than the nam. Another overperformer coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:30 PM, messenger said: The NAM and GFS could forecast a menage for me tonight with Halle Berry and Rebacca Romijn and I wouldn't get excited. I'll wait on the Euro and the NAM inside of 24. I'll hedge a bet on someone in SNE eclipsing 3". You picked two rather "meh" women, by the way. Many better choices for a threesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 All the guidance is in relatively good agreement...some guidance shows a bit more of a chance at 3"+ in spots of SNE than others, but most show a general 1-2" anyway across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 SREF's not bullish on SN for SE MA and CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM is cold down to just above ground level for me at TAN. Surface temps and dews are in the 33-36F range. About 1/4" QPF thru 48h. Have to believe it's snow given how cold the column is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 2:39 PM, ChrisM said: I'll hedge a bet on someone in SNE eclipsing 3". You picked two rather "meh" women, by the way. Many better choices for a threesome. Someone will always measure 3". You have to remember there's a much denser net of people measuring than there was back before the web. And when the government took the bottom inch off of rulers that changed things too. I must be older than you, I'll take Romijn in the Xmen blue suit FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 La la land on the nam but thats a pretty big shift north for the saturday storm out at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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