CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 10:28 PM, forkyfork said: it's not really a clipper, it's an occluded fropa Yeah agreed. Sometimes low thickness and se winds can fluff it up. Should be good snowgrowth if moisture is adequate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 10:34 PM, powderfreak said: Amazing snow growth incoming with 60:1 or 80:1 ratios. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 10:35 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah agreed. Sometimes low thickness and se winds can fluff it up. Should be good snowgrowth if moisture is adequate. 1-2 seems reasonable in a cold environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It is kind of interesting how unstable lower levels are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:01 PM, CoastalWx said: It is kind of interesting how unstable lower levels are. What do you think GC can expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:02 PM, ski MRG said: What do you think GC can expect? Probably about the same..1-2"..maybe 3" for now. That's not including upslope or anything, but that may be minimal at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:01 PM, CoastalWx said: It is kind of interesting how unstable lower levels are. Hey Scott, how do you determine instability in a cold weather environment? Is it still the same parameters..aka CAPE, LI all that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 10:10 PM, RI Rob said: ugh I'm confusing myself now. lol This is why Kevin should not throw out crazy numbers. New people like Rob get confused as hell trying to figure out the inside jokes and tendencies of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I am on board for another over performer. Its seems to be the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:44 PM, sbos_wx said: I am on board for another over performer. Its seems to be the trend. Like the Rev said ... 6-8, lollis to 10. PTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:21 PM, ChrisM said: Hey Scott, how do you determine instability in a cold weather environment? Is it still the same parameters..aka CAPE, LI all that? Well the instability in the winter time is nothing like what we think of in the summer. It's many, many times less. But, you can see how quickly temps decrease aloft. In fact, it's almost beyond conditional instability above 700mb...meaning air will just rise without the help of any forcing. The NAM shows this as well. I would like the see more moisture above 600mb...but overall it looked kind of interesting. Don't get excited about thunder, but it probably implies some heavier bursts of snow, if this happened. It also doesn't guarantee everyone sees this, because there is also a chance this doesn't come together until it is more to the east of SNE. Usually in these situations, it's a narrow band of snow like 80 miles wide, embedded in more lighter and showery echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:44 PM, sbos_wx said: I am on board for another over performer. Its seems to be the trend. I'd rather it more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:46 PM, MaineJayhawk said: Like the Rev said ... 6-8, lollis to 10. PTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Well the instability in the winter time is nothing like what we think of in the summer. It's many, many times less. But, you can see how quickly temps decrease aloft. In fact, it's almost beyond conditional instability above 700mb...meaning air will just rise without the help of any forcing. The NAM shows this as well. I would like the see more moisture above 600mb...but overall it looked kind of interesting. Don't get excited about thunder, but it probably implies some heavier bursts of snow, if this happened. It also doesn't guarantee everyone sees this, because there is also a chance this doesn't come together until it is more to the east of SNE. Usually in these situations, it's a narrow band of snow like 80 miles wide, embedded in more lighter and showery echoes. which lines which again? sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Well the instability in the winter time is nothing like what we think of in the summer. It's many, many times less. But, you can see how quickly temps decrease aloft. In fact, it's almost beyond conditional instability above 700mb...meaning air will just rise without the help of any forcing. The NAM shows this as well. I would like the see more moisture above 600mb...but overall it looked kind of interesting. Don't get excited about thunder, but it probably implies some heavier bursts of snow, if this happened. It also doesn't guarantee everyone sees this, because there is also a chance this doesn't come together until it is more to the east of SNE. Usually in these situations, it's a narrow band of snow like 80 miles wide, embedded in more lighter and showery echoes. Yeah, looking MAULish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:59 PM, ChrisM said: which lines which again? sorry Well it depends on what product you use, but on that, the two important likes are the solid white and dashed white. Dashed white is the dewpoint. Solid white is the actual temp. The solid red is the actual temperature is the parcel rises to the LCL,(level at which clouds form) and then rises moist adiabatically. While it takes a little getting used to, I know that the layer from 700mb to 600mb is borderline unstable because the lapse rate or rate of temperature decrease as you go up into the atmosphere, is pretty steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 12:13 AM, CoastalWx said: Well it depends on what product you use, but on that, the two important likes are the solid white and dashed white. Dashed white is the dewpoint. Solid white is the actual temp. The solid red is the actual temperature is the parcel rises to the LCL,(level at which clouds form) and then rises moist adiabatically. While it takes a little getting used to, I know that the layer from 700mb to 600mb is borderline unstable because the lapse rate or rate of temperature decrease as you go up into the atmosphere, is pretty steep. Thanks as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Definitely could see a good burst of snow with the frontal passage. Probably a narrow band of heavy snow embedded within light snow shower crap that doesn't amount to anything. Total: 1-3". Highest to the north and higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GYX saying 2-4" for their peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:15 AM, MaineJayhawk said: GYX saying 2-4" for their peeps. We are getting nickel and dimed..la la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:20 AM, Dryslot said: We are getting nickel and dimed..la la la lock it up No biggies but we'll take the small fry and cash it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:23 AM, MaineJayhawk said: No biggies but we'll take the small fry and cash it in. How did you make out today? Anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:12 AM, wxwatcher91 said: Definitely could see a good burst of snow with the frontal passage. Probably a narrow band of heavy snow embedded within light snow shower crap that doesn't amount to anything. Total: 1-3". Highest to the north and higher elevations Admit it, you love itScrew those rain wrapped EF5s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:15 AM, MaineJayhawk said: GYX saying 2-4" for their peeps. Certainly looks to favor Maine right now overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 11:01 PM, CoastalWx said: It is kind of interesting how unstable lower levels are. Tt of 57 on one of the forecast soundings I saw today. Lol. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:39 AM, CapeCodWeather.net said: Tt of 57 on one of the forecast soundings I saw today. Lol. Not bad. Windex parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:25 AM, Dryslot said: How did you make out today? Anything yeah, had 0.2" when I left at 5am. No idea exactly how much fell since it was raining when I returned so I'm going to go with the 1.3" I measured in the parking lot at work. Gotta have some sort of number. Was hoping GYX would issue a PNS, but no sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:48 AM, MaineJayhawk said: yeah, had 0.2" when I left at 5am. No idea exactly how much fell since it was raining when I returned so I'm going to go with the 1.3" I measured in the parking lot at work. Gotta have some sort of number. Was hoping GYX would issue a PNS, but no sir. I know, And i called in my totals in this am, Don't think i was the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:45 AM, Ginx said: Windex parameters? Boing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 On 1/18/2012 at 1:59 AM, HubbDave said: Boing... I need a nice prolonged snow... Doesn't even have to be heavy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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