HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Beware the Dry Air..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not sure where you are seeing these QPF amounts for areas in the cold sector of the storm. Perhaps high end advisory criteria for areas, but mid level warmth needs to be monitored for areas just a tad north of the H85 0C line. Given the weak dynamics of the system, QPF progs may even be a tad too high with some dry air advecting south out of Canada. I would be more wary about throwing such high numbers out at this point. Better to start high and go down if need be..not the other way..That is what the public wants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Better to start high and go down if need be..not the other way..That is what the public wants classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GFS Ensm. looks good for track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Next week looks interesting..especially the interior. After that, we may endure a crappier pattern later next week, before things try to shift around near Feb 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sexy high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GGEM is a nice hit for SNE as well now. Looks like the 0c 850 gets up yo about the South Coast. A little juicy too, if I may add. Looks like 0.5"+ in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GGEM is a nice hit for SNE as well now. Looks like the 0c 850 gets up yo about the South Coast. A little juicy too, if I may add. Looks like 0.5"+ in some areas. Usually the GGEM comes in paultry, right? That could be a good sign for the EURO. Any news on the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Usually the GGEM comes in paultry, right? That could be a good sign for the EURO. Any news on the UKIE. Ukie is like the NAM but colder.. kind of a red flag that the ukie is north like that.. the ukie did nail temps in the last storm tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Here are the Penn State images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 CMC definitely colder at 12z than last night's 00z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Just looked at the Canadian and it has absolutely nothing but flurries for Thursday night though... lol. On the paultry end for the first event, then on the robust side for the second event. Toss its first solution and worship the later frames, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looking at the 12z GFS even further, it seems as if its have some convective feedback issues when its trying to disperse the moisture between the south and the north... it seems like its displacing moisture from the northeast to the southeast when other models aren't doing that. Also, the storm won't have the dramatic shifts like we've seen with other storms this year. This storm is being squeezed between 2 vigorous highs and unless the models are severely wrong with those strengths , the path should change much, as we've seen over the past 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well, I mean last year too. The bulk of 1/12 was 1am-5am, same with 1/27, 12/26 was mostly overnight. 4/1 was overnight, etc. The only good day time storm last year was 2/1 when we got 5-8" falling 1"/hour from 9am-3pm. Oh I know what your saying. Personally I like a late afternoon/evening through the next morning storm. Always used to be good for a shot at a snow day with timing like that as im sure you know. Plus its a good time to get out and enjoy it for me with my daughter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Rumor is the euro is slightly N and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z euro is a bit milder this run...pushes the 850 line up into C CT/NRI SE MA...not quite as much precip this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Rumor is the euro is slightly N and warmer. Please don't post this kind of stuff if you don't have accurate links/information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro is a little further north on tis run. gets the 850 0C line to srn CT and south coast of ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Rumor is the euro is slightly N and warmer. Kind of skinny on qpf as well, 4mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro is a little further north on tis run. gets the 850 0C line to srn CT and south coast of ma. Least Joe can continue the endless summer in sw ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 surface is still pretty chilly over CT and N RI...so some sleet or freezing rain verbatim there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Please don't post this kind of stuff if you don't have accurate links/information. My bad. Sounds like its similar to the gfs with regards to the qpf, but warmer. More in line with the 3-6" the gfs had rather then last night which was more juiced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well as we said....could tick a little north. It also has more of a hangback low over NC which may be part of the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Does the Euro still have snow in here before dawn on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Does the Euro still have snow in here before dawn on Saturday? Yeaj like 5-6am for you. Sleet by 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well as we said....could tick a little north. It also has more of a hangback low over NC which may be part of the reason. It wouldn't seem there's much more room for it to come north with that high up there. Maybe a bit ore of a therml gradient which would get snow furthur north than modelled though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Does the Euro still have snow in here before dawn on Saturday? yeah it was a bit slower but still has it snowing around dawn +/- in your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeaj like 5-6am for you. Sleet by 8am. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 surface is still pretty chilly over CT and N RI...so some sleet or freezing rain verbatim there Would rather just have plain old rain the FZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It wouldn't seem there's much more room for it to come north with that high up there. Maybe a bit ore of a therml gradient which would get snow furthur north than modelled though I don't even care if I mix..just nice to see something modeled. There is a little more room for north trend though I think, but at the same time..snother s/w rides across Quebec which will limit the extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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