ski MRG Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 12/6 -sn, fairly unimpressed, still any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wow... the NAM is pulling the Messenger special of cutting back and shaving QPF just hours before a storm. I remember last winter it did that every single time. I'm pretty sure the NAM has the worst precip score of any model past like 36 hours. If people actually try base a forecast off of it when it differs from the Euro/GFS/SREF precip drastically, then that is poor forecasting. It was showing over half an inch of qpf here a few runs ago while the Euro has been pretty steady for the last 3-4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm pretty sure the NAM has the worst precip score of any model past like 36 hours. If people actually try base a forecast off of it when it differs from the Euro/GFS/SREF precip drastically, then that is poor forecasting. It was showing over half an inch of qpf here a few runs ago while the Euro has been pretty steady for the last 3-4 runs. Yeah... it was awful up here during the event prior to MLK weekend. We were supposed to get that SW flow slug of precip which led folks to think 4-7" and most of northern VT ended up with 2-3" and only 0.2" of liquid vs. a NAM 0.6" forecast, lol. EURO has been impressively steady based on the posts here of a consistent 0.3-0.4" QPF. I still think all of you get into the 3-6" range... solid Advisory event. That radar doesn't look all that bad, I mean no one was expecting a major storm and it really doesn't need to look like much on radar to get a fluffy 4, 5, even 6". Just think back to yesterday, radar didn't look that impressive coming across NYS... you never would've known that it would produce 4-6" totals in parts of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah... it was awful up here during the event prior to MLK weekend. We were supposed to get that SW flow slug of precip which led folks to think 4-7" and most of northern VT ended up with 2-3" and only 0.2" of liquid vs. a NAM 0.6" forecast, lol. EURO has been impressively steady based on the posts here of a consistent 0.3-0.4" QPF. I still think all of you get into the 3-6" range... solid Advisory event. That radar doesn't look all that bad, I mean no one was expecting a major storm and it really doesn't need to look like much on radar to get a fluffy 4, 5, even 6". Just think back to yesterday, radar didn't look that impressive coming across NYS... you never would've known that it would produce 4-6" totals in parts of SE MA. I'll be interested to see the flake quality...if we are getting efficient dendrites, then it won't take much to get 4-5" amounts. But I'm not totally excited by upstream obs...usually good dendritic growth will yield a lot more 1/2 mile obs or less...but who knows, good dendrites can do pretty good damage even with 3/4 mile vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Hideous. I can lay on my back and sneeze and create more omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Little pins here ...the kind of stuff you get when it is extremely cold and dry. It is 9 degrees after all. Radar shows some 20 dbz stuff trying to finally extend northeast from BGM and at the same time the back edge is sinking to the west ...maybe we'll get a couple hours of decent snow before it just starts to taper off. LOL I'll be interested to see the flake quality...if we are getting efficient dendrites, then it won't take much to get 4-5" amounts. But I'm not totally excited by upstream obs...usually good dendritic growth will yield a lot more 1/2 mile obs or less...but who knows, good dendrites can do pretty good damage even with 3/4 mile vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Little pins here ...the kind of stuff you get when it is extremely cold and dry. It is 9 degrees after all. Radar shows some 20 dbz stuff trying to finally extend northeast from BGM and at the same time the back edge is sinking to the west ...maybe we'll get a couple hours of decent snow before it just starts to taper off. LOL NEEDLES!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Concerning signs: - Obs from Philly / southern NJ area are consistent with colder 6Z NAM, ie., drier for SNE - Dewpoints are around 4-5F in SNE... at least several degrees colder than 0Z NAM and GFS MOS Meanwhile... Congrats AmericanWx... From Upton AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE FILLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. INITIAL REPORTS VIA SPOTTERS...AMERICANWX.COM AND ASOS OBS INDICATE 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NYC WEST...AND A COATING TO AN INCH FARTHER EAST. COASTAL FRONT HAS SET UP JUST S OF LONG ISLAND...AND NE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SFC TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. 06Z NAM HAS ALSO TRENDED COLDER ALOFT...WITH NEARLY ALL SNOW AND JUST A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND. ITS QPF IS ALSO LOWER...BUT ITS HIGHER SNOW RATIOS OF 12-15 TO 1 DURING PDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD KEEP AMTS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 First flakes started about 2 miles into my run and by mile 5 it was coming down nicely. Rds already snowcovered. Perfect winters day . I was in all my glory running..Tunes banging, snow falling, temps in the mid teens. I had this huge smile on my face half the time. Radar looks good for a nice solid 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Glad the Euro held serve. Must be seeing something. NAM up to it's usual nonsense Enjoy your 8 inches with .2 qpf and and 40:1 ratios I'm high and dry here.. perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 DXR is 1/2m in mod snow..Pushing NE. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Gotta wonder if this sstorm trending a bit south and colder has any implications for the Monday storm. It looks damn icy Monday morning. Let's see if we can hold off that warm air as long as possible Monday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I shaved an inch off amounts and went 2-5". Same, exact action I took last night.....I'll prob be toward the lower end. This season sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wow... the NAM is pulling the Messenger special of cutting back and shaving QPF just hours before a storm. I remember last winter it did that every single time. It was atrocious in that event before MLK weekend with QPF, too... it was way too high up here, showing a slug of over 1/2" and we got like 0.2-0.3". Not sure what it is with that model. Shouldn't come as a suprise to anyone....it always initially overestimates qpf by at least 1\3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm not even really upset....low density crap will sublimate within 2 days, as we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nice to see a big shield of snow though even down past PHL and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well the amounts I threw out after the 12z runs came out yesterday are going to be too high I think given the trends. Hopefully 2-4 for BOS. 4.7 probably is not happening although 3-5 was the range i was thinking. That's why we have ranges, for things like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Moderate snow here High ratio fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well the amounts I threw out after the 12z runs came out yesterday are going to be too high I think given the trends. Hopefully 2-4 for BOS. 4.7 probably is not happening although 3-5 was the range i was thinking. That's why we have ranges, for things like this. Ranges allow us "careful space". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 NAM does show frontogenesis increasing between 900mb and 700mb across southern and southeastern areas. I do think this will help wring out some extra snow. Ratios won't be too great either... snow growth isn't too exciting. Looks like at least so far best lift is under the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nice to see a big shield of snow though even down past PHL and NYC. from Philly / NYC threads and webcams, Intellicast snow-sleet line is too far south... Philly and southern half NJ now mixing with / changing to freezing rain and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Shouldn't be suprised that in this fat, hairy azz crack of a season, that the one system which we'd like to see tic n, won't.....but rest assured, when we "walk the line" next week, tic away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 NAM does show frontogenesis increasing between 900mb and 700mb across southern and southeastern areas. I do think this will help wring out some extra snow. Ratios won't be too great either... snow growth isn't too exciting. Looks like at least so far best lift is under the DGZ. Could be above it too. There was some lift at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Could be above it too. There was some lift at 500mb. Yeah GFS is showing that actually. Weak still is pretty meager. I do like seeing that low level frontogenesis ramp up for CT/RI/SE Mass later in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah GFS is showing that actually. Weak still is pretty meager. I do like seeing that low level frontogenesis ramp up for CT/RI/SE Mass later in the event. You think heaviest is maybe 9-noon or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah GFS is showing that actually. Weak still is pretty meager. I do like seeing that low level frontogenesis ramp up for CT/RI/SE Mass later in the event. Pretty nice seasonal comeback for se MA, anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You think heaviest is maybe 9-noon or so? Now through noon for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 First flakes started about 2 miles into my run and by mile 5 it was coming down nicely. Rds already snowcovered. Perfect winters day . I was in all my glory running..Tunes banging, snow falling, temps in the mid teens. I had this huge smile on my face half the time. Radar looks good for a nice solid 3-6. I know, I was out walking the dogs.perfect winters moring, work cancelled. Getting good snow growth now and hey watch Thursday bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I know, I was out walking the dogs.perfect winters moring, work cancelled. Getting good snow growth now and hey watch Thursday bro. I like your area, Ginx for a jackpot. How much do you have now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 NAM does show frontogenesis increasing between 900mb and 700mb across southern and southeastern areas. I do think this will help wring out some extra snow. Ratios won't be too great either... snow growth isn't too exciting. Looks like at least so far best lift is under the DGZ. Nice growth here now. Not sure what you were expecting with all the Debbie posts but this is sweet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.