ChrisM Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 In at 5A tomorrow for work. Anyone else getting up early? Gotta be at sundown at 630ish, will probably wake up around 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The thermal gradient is pretty good actually. You can see that on 850 progs. The problem Is that the flow just to the north is out of the west and the lift is centered more Towards the surface low. Basically no closed lows means lift may be centers closer to surface low. Things sort of losing crappier in the last 10 hrs after 12z. The gradient is there but the advection processes blow. Definitely not as good as 12z when I threw those numbers out but we'll see. That was a problem brought up in the afternoon. It may not get going until it exists stage right. There's a great antecedent thermal gradient, but it has trouble getting compressed like we often see in SWFEs. It shows how the forcing is kind of weak. At any rate the newer RUC is more optimistic, we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 21z sref backed off 4" probs a bit. Not as optimistic but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 There's a great antecedent thermal gradient, but it has trouble getting compressed like we often see in SWFEs. It shows how the forcing is kind of weak. At any rate the newer RUC is more optimistic, we'll have to see. Radar is improving in CPA, the Chicago PNS was pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'll be up at 4:45 tomorrow as I have a race at Ragged Mtn up in NH. Kind of stinks that I'll miss the brunt of the storm but oh well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Definitely have been noticing this and remain optimistic. You are in a great spot, SCT special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 21z sref backed off 4" probs a bit. Not as optimistic but we shall see. Doubt that will work...Some members look OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Anything else out there yet, RGEM? UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Guys flip on ABC Nightline...quick. John Bolaris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 LOL...epic fail. I was optimistic when I got home from work and saw BOX had me for 3-6"...and a WWA. Then I saw the nam and gfs...wow. SREFS don't look horrible. If I was on an 11pm broadcast right now I would def. downplay this though. Maybe 2-3" for me near the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 LOL...epic fail. I was optimistic when I got home from work and saw BOX had me for 3-6"...and a WWA. Then I saw the nam and gfs...wow. SREFS don't look horrible. If I was on an 11pm broadcast right now I would def. downplay this though. Maybe 2-3" for me near the pike? So 3-6 to 2-3 is an epic fail, hmm our priorities have changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 UK or RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Maybe I'm just dumb but the storm seems to be getting better then it was a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 There's a great antecedent thermal gradient, but it has trouble getting compressed like we often see in SWFEs. It shows how the forcing is kind of weak. At any rate the newer RUC is more optimistic, we'll have to see. Yeah that's what I mean. We lose some of the processes for good isentropic lift well north of the low, if guidance is right. Lift should be good across se mass. But We'll just have to see....sometimes or can improve last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Just a quick question and point about using the Mass Pike as such a common marker or cut off for snow/rain/heavy snow. Why do we use a road that has a pretty significant bend in it. I mean when we say "north of the pike" do mean north of the pike near boston which is in the middle of the state latitudinally, or are we referring to out near springfield which is almost on the connecticut border. Tough marker to use. So a place like dedham is south of the pike, but springfield is north of the pike. Just wondering what part of the pike people are referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I didn't think the storm was supposed I have heavy snow at this stage given model q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Model qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 So 3-6 to 2-3 is an epic fail, hmm our priorities have changed LOL, I know. It will still be nice to see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 UK or RGEM? RGEM didn't look bad..similar to 18z. PA couple of issues: Cold and dry tonight. My tendinitis suggests this event is fair at best. It hurt much more the the other night. So all those in consideration, I am calling for 2-5 imby. Downgrade from 3-6. Would love to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nam Bufkit has 1.2" at ORH and 1.1" at BOS LOL.....congrats to Phil though, shows 5.7" at HYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The radar over the southern tier of NY is looking healthier...that will be the region people in the BOS-ORH corridor want to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nam Bufkit has 1.2" at ORH and 1.1" at BOS LOL.....congrats to Phil though, shows 5.7" at HYA What does it show where I am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Will you doing the Euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Will you doing the Euro tonight? I think Meghan is American. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I didn't think the storm was supposed I have heavy snow at this stage given model q Model qpf. Wait, are you saying that it's doing more than you thought right now? I'm confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think Meghan is American. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nice to see some of my weenies buds in DC getting accumulations and going out in it to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah it really bends northwest in the Berkshires and into the connector to the NY Thruway in ENY, but I don't think most people on this forum are thinking in terms of that far west. Just a quick question and point about using the Mass Pike as such a common marker or cut off for snow/rain/heavy snow. Why do we use a road that has a pretty significant bend in it. I mean when we say "north of the pike" do mean north of the pike near boston which is in the middle of the state latitudinally, or are we referring to out near springfield which is almost on the connecticut border. Tough marker to use. So a place like dedham is south of the pike, but springfield is north of the pike. Just wondering what part of the pike people are referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah it really bends northwest in the Berkshires and into the connector to the NY Thruway in ENY, but I don't think most people on this forum are thinking in terms of that far west. Yea most of us in Ct think the Auburn to SPFD line. Good demarcation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wait, are you saying that it's doing more than you thought right now? I'm confused No I'm saying that the qpf didn't argue for lots of moderate snow quite yet. The shield was going to take a hit as the flow started moving more to the ene after diving more ese. On phone so I'm limited to what I can see but I saw models more lackluster than I would like. Like will and I mentioned if the dynamics suck and the storm is weaker or further south, that will affect the nrn shield of the snow. You can only have a good deformation band if the dynamics allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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