mitchnick Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Dude jackpot or bust this is my last week here LWX just put Towson at 2-3", and they have been upping it http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 LWX just put Towson at 2-3", and they have been upping it http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Bout time for a real stem winder , lock up the full moon in Feb now. Feb 3-5 storm then severe cold, 7 th ,night of the moon. I loved this week, probably a near normal snow Jan for me after tomorrow. Have to make up Dec in March. 4-6 Pike south. I'm at Sunday River that weekend so if you're right I'll buy your beers when I finally meet you at a gtg. (unless you are up there that w/e) One of my only weekends away skiing with my buddies so I'm counting on your juju to bring the pow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Is this your ginxy gale Counting on a neg NAO for a good stretch, build it and they will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wow...all things considered that's not too bad. Yeah...we've have about 9" since 1/12...so even another 3" would be a foot of snow in 9 days which isn't bad for this awful month. But we've definitely seen more chances recently. Look like we should have some more after the lakes cutter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm at Sunday River that weekend so if you're right I'll buy your beers when I finally meet you at a gtg. (unless you are up there that w/e) One of my only weekends away skiing with my buddies so I'm counting on your juju to bring the pow! Check out the vid from today there. That cutter sucks Donkey balls Mon, things were building nicely, hope Thurs trends secondary. But we knew this week would suck. Cutter though serves a purpose, sacrifice bunt. I do not think radar looks all that bad, especially southern inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Counting on a neg NAO for a good stretch, build it and they will come. I'm not feeling a KU this winter, but who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It is currently snowing steadily to the north of Lake Ontario, so I do think the precip shield sould make it decently north into CNE...but the question is just how far north the better lift and potential for banding gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah...we've have about 9" since 1/12...so even another 3" would be a foot of snow in 9 days which isn't bad for this awful month. But we've definitely seen more chances recently. Look like we should have some more after the lakes cutter too. Yup, tomorrow should get Greenfield over 10" for the past 10 days which is not that bad for January. When the Oct storm is factored in (sometimes I feel it should have and astrerisk*) we'll be well above 1/3 season average with Feb, March, April ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Look for the whole shield to come together as it treks east ala wed night. that was fun to watch as the slight twisting caused a darkening of the echoes right after midnight. It is currently snowing steadily to the north of Lake Ontario, so I do think the precip shield sould make it decently north into CNE...but the question is just how far north the better lift and potential for banding gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I was out skiing Darned cold and dry. Expecting 2 maybe 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Dead zone... hilarious sarcasm (40/70), concerned analysis (ORH), uncharacteristic optimism (messenger)... Any comments on what things we can follow that can indicate where we're headed: - temps/dewpoints observed vs. forecast? --- is confluence already stronger than predicted? - SLP location, depth? - radar vs. model output? - anything else we should look for to kill time because the ride is probably gonna more interesting than the destination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Hoping to squeeze out 2'' of fluff to go on top of about the 1-1.5'' we got last night. Just enough to keep things fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm not feeling a KU this winter, but who knows.... Yea a 12-15 works though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It is currently snowing steadily to the north of Lake Ontario, so I do think the precip shield sould make it decently north into CNE...but the question is just how far north the better lift and potential for banding gets. Speaking of banding, that site has been down since mid Nov, probably the single reason for this seasons crap. Miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Speaking of banding, that site has been down since mid Nov, probably the single reason for this seasons crap. Miss it. Yeah thatsa nice site...but there's still other sources to find banding parameters...but that site had the best maps. I wish they had the GFS too though and not just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0z gfs slightest tick north with qpf vs. 18z? in any case, no crazy shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0z gfs slightest tick north with qpf vs. 18z? Yeah...maybe 10-15 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ctblizz>why does anyone even look at the gfs<<ctblizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0z gfs slightest tick north with qpf vs. 18z? in any case, no crazy shift south I don't even look at the off hour runs, it's south from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The GFS held serve. Roughly .15 to .20 from here to Pete to MPM and and HubbDave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Sports forum. Oh hey I'm still banned from there...for something which happened like 3 months ago which was completely misunderstood. I actually asked for the ban (temporarily) and I've sent many messages to admins asking for it to be rescinded but I've had no such luck. Annoying, but whatever. Anyway, I'm going with 6.5" for here tomorrow (I'm at home in NW CT). 4-7" for Pete cause he always overperforms, 5" for Wiz and Ryan, 5" for TorchyDrinks, 2.5" for RayRay, 3.5" for ORH, 5.5 for the Ginxxxinator. Maybe 4-6 out on the Cape depending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I don't even look at the off hour runs, it's south from the 12z. That's more like it, lol Barring a surprise from the Euro, models say KBOS futility record may just live to see another day (another week? a new month?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 LWX just put Towson at 2-3", and they have been upping it http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ ..............whatever at least im drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah thatsa nice site...but there's still other sources to find banding parameters...but that site had the best maps. I wish they had the GFS too though and not just the NAM. Probably fitting the strongest banding signal I ever saw in all the years was on the last big storm it had, Halloweens mega death band was nailed by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The thermal gradient is pretty good actually. You can see that on 850 progs. The problem Is that the flow just to the north is out of the west and the lift is centered more Towards the surface low. Basically no closed lows means lift may be centers closer to surface low. Things sort of losing crappier in the last 10 hrs after 12z. The gradient is there but the advection processes blow. Definitely not as good as 12z when I threw those numbers out but we'll see. That was a problem brought up in the afternoon. It may not get going until it exists stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ryan's boss calling for seven for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The thermal gradient is pretty good actually. You can see that on 850 progs. The problem Is that the flow just to the north is out of the west and the lift is centered more Towards the surface low. Basically no closed lows means lift may be centers closer to surface low. Things sort of losing crappier in the last 10 hrs after 12z. The gradient is there but the advection processes blow. Definitely not as good as 12z when I threw those numbers out but we'll see. That was a problem brought up in the afternoon. It may not get going until it exists stage right. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The thermal gradient is pretty good actually. You can see that on 850 progs. The problem Is that the flow just to the north is out of the west and the lift is centered more Towards the surface low. Basically no closed lows means lift may be centers closer to surface low. Things sort of losing crappier in the last 10 hrs after 12z. The gradient is there but the advection processes blow. Definitely not as good as 12z when I threw those numbers out but we'll see. That was a problem brought up in the afternoon. It may not get going until it exists stage right. Is your weenie deflating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 In at 5A tomorrow for work. Anyone else getting up early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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