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Jan 20/21 Snow Threat


snowNH

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Its got quite the CAD signature on the surface at 69 hours, I've told everyone NYC's snowless January will fall guaranteed if the NAM's positioning of the high is correct not to mention the event would be frozen for an extensive period in SNE, thats a big if as you mention given its during the NAM's unreliable range.

I like how the 06z GFS resaturates the column on a persistent ENE flow setting up -

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I'll take 4-7" on Saturday. Looks like a daytime storm finally. We've had way too many storms where I've had to lose sleep to be up for.

even last year all those storms were at night. I can't even remember the last time I saw good snow during the daylight.

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I'll take 4-7" on Saturday. Looks like a daytime storm finally. We've had way too many storms where I've had to lose sleep to be up for.

I feel as if the Saturday event will be more of a mixed bag / ice event then a pure snow event .. perhaps 2"-4" followed by sleet and 1/8" glaze? idk just throwing that option out there , but it looks as if the surface will def stay cold throughout , just a function of the mid levels / mid levels warming

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What is the EURO showing for this event? Where are these 4-7" or 5-10" amounts coming from?

I'm seeing 0.25-0.4" of liquid on GFS model extraction, with spot 0.5" amounts down along the south coast where it looks like rain or mix. Canadian also seems to be showing max of around 0.5" with maybe a bit more southeast areas but again looks like mixed where max QPF is.

Even BOX was surprised with the amount of QPF models were showing for lackluster dynamics. Is the EURO a bomb with 0.75" of liquid up at BDL-ORH or something?

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What is the EURO showing for this event? Where are these 4-7" or 5-10" amounts coming from?

I'm seeing 0.25-0.4" of liquid on GFS model extraction, with spot 0.5" amounts down along the south coast where it looks like rain or mix. Canadian also seems to be showing max of around 0.5" with maybe a bit more southeast areas but again looks like mixed where max QPF is.

Even BOX was surprised with the amount of QPF models were showing for lackluster dynamics. Is the EURO a bomb with 0.75" of liquid up at BDL-ORH or something?

QPF will have a limit as the dynamics aren't impressive. It's mainly WAA driven.

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Seems like a 4-8/5-10 inch type of storm Saturday

Not sure where you are seeing these QPF amounts for areas in the cold sector of the storm. Perhaps high end advisory criteria for areas, but mid level warmth needs to be monitored for areas just a tad north of the H85 0C line. Given the weak dynamics of the system, QPF progs may even be a tad too high with some dry air advecting south out of Canada. I would be more wary about throwing such high numbers out at this point.

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I feel as if the Saturday event will be more of a mixed bag / ice event then a pure snow event .. perhaps 2"-4" followed by sleet and 1/8" glaze? idk just throwing that option out there , but it looks as if the surface will def stay cold throughout , just a function of the mid levels / mid levels warming

Yeah... definitely possible. The nam at 78hr would imply hardly any snow...but of course its the nam at 78.

Haha, Really? You mean the only storms we've had this year were at night.

Well, I mean last year too. The bulk of 1/12 was 1am-5am, same with 1/27, 12/26 was mostly overnight. 4/1 was overnight, etc. The only good day time storm last year was 2/1 when we got 5-8" falling 1"/hour from 9am-3pm.

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What is the EURO showing for this event? Where are these 4-7" or 5-10" amounts coming from?

I'm seeing 0.25-0.4" of liquid on GFS model extraction, with spot 0.5" amounts down along the south coast where it looks like rain or mix. Canadian also seems to be showing max of around 0.5" with maybe a bit more southeast areas but again looks like mixed where max QPF is.

Even BOX was surprised with the amount of QPF models were showing for lackluster dynamics. Is the EURO a bomb with 0.75" of liquid up at BDL-ORH or something?

I believe EURO has a widespread .5-.6? Will said it was low end warning criteria for most of the area.

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The good thing is a lot of times the WAA patterns seem to result in decent snow growth unless you're getting really warm air way up in the mid levels at H7 or even higher.

The QPF shield will be a little more widespread than modeled I think. This will have a relatively large shield of at least lighter echoes. Also, can't rule out a tick north.

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Not sure where you are seeing these QPF amounts for areas in the cold sector of the storm. Perhaps high end advisory criteria for areas, but mid level warmth needs to be monitored for areas just a tad north of the H85 0C line. Given the weak dynamics of the system, QPF progs may even be a tad too high with some dry air advecting south out of Canada. I would be more wary about throwing such high numbers out at this point.

Oh, you're not supposed to take him seriously.

He's not well.

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