ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 How does the NAM show 1 inch for Boston? It shows 2-3" for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It shows 2-3" for BOS. And its not even a decent gradient it gradually trends from 2-3 in BOS to 4 or 5 at the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think some people have some very high expectations for this piss poor little system. I was hoping for 3 inches, might have to settle for 2. This system does not look impressive to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This system does not look impressive to our west. Hasn't looked impressive on radar all day yet it dropped a swath of 4-6 with isolated 8 across the midwest today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 My NAM rule ...never assume more than 10-1. But hey 5 inches would be great for this winter down there...enjoy it! nam looked dreadful and somehow managed to give me .5+ of pow pow 15:1 ratios lol, 6-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 And its not even a decent gradient it gradually trends from 2-3 in BOS to 4 or 5 at the south coast Yeah I didn't capture the last 3 or so hours. But that said, there's not much lift north of the coast as Phil mentioned. We'll see how it all plays out as the night goes on, it's only one model. I'm not real worried yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Why empty? Hard week, not snowing tonight, family time, maybe the fact that candy is dandy but liquor is quicker? Friday night...and tomorrow will be the 3rd snow event of the week albeit more anemic looking for the pike area vs earlier. Nevertheless, this is the 3rd snow event of the week in a winter that had none before this week imby for nearly 3 months. And you say we're in the same pattern? And btw, looks like a lock...5 of 7 days this week subnormal, in the coldest time climo. Ole man waking up. I was thinking of the national embarrassment, a game at Foxboro in 58 degree sunny wx. Now we know it will be cold Sunday with snow on the sidelines. Long...live...winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It just looks like a very weak shearing out s/w. Interesting year...southern stream systems always bring lots of moisture when they cut inland. And we won't have any trouble with moisture on Monday. Yeah I didn't capture the last 3 or so hours. But that said, there's not much lift north of the coast as Phil mentioned. We'll see how it all plays out as the night goes on, it's only one model. I'm not real worried yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah I didn't capture the last 3 or so hours. But that said, there's not much lift north of the coast as Phil mentioned. We'll see how it all plays out as the night goes on, it's only one model. I'm not real worried yet. I think Harvey's 3-7 call verifies from the Pike south. I still wouldn't be surprised if this ticks a bit north although the 00z nam completely throws that idea out the window. Its getting late in the game now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Not sure if anyone can inform me but, from looking at the NAM/GFS does RI still look ok for the storm. Looks better then up near Boston imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Per 00z NAM, not much of a snowfall bull's eye but it would probably be one of the inland burbs west and northwest of NYC -- ie. Morristown to West Milford NJ vicinity with 6"; perhaps slightly more over highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Somewhere around bob or maybe closer to the pym coast could make out well with some decent ocean enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think Harvey's 3-7 call verifies from the Pike south. I still wouldn't be surprised if this ticks a bit north although the 00z nam completely throws that idea out the window. Its getting late in the game now. Eh, I wouldn't worry too much about the NAM. It's good that it hasn't gone to an extreme either way, will await the Euro. Would like to see that hold relative serve without a major bounce one way or the other. NAM snows most of Saturday night too, OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Very cold last seven days here, tainted only by the fact that for six hours Tuesday night we spiked above freezing and hit 45. -12, -7, -8 on three mornings. One day only hit 9 for a high, three more not out of the teens during the daytime. Good ice finally on waterways. I hope to get enough tomorrow to "spend" it on Monday's thaw and come out of that with the same snow cover I have now - which averages 4 to 6 inches of dense stuff. Why empty? Hard week, not snowing tonight, family time, maybe the fact that candy is dandy but liquor is quicker? Friday night...and tomorrow will be the 3rd snow event of the week albeit more anemic looking for the pike area vs earlier. Nevertheless, this is the 3rd snow event of the week in a winter that had none before this week imby for nearly 3 months. And you say we're in the same pattern? And btw, looks like a lock...5 of 7 days this week subnormal, in the coldest time climo. Ole man waking up. I was thinking of the national embarrassment, a game at Foxboro in 58 degree sunny wx. Now we know it will be cold Sunday with snow on the sidelines. Long...live...winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Somewhere around bob or maybe closer to the pym coast could make out well with some decent ocean enhancement. Regarding radar and obs, lots of freezing rain in Indy, NE winds off a dry continent, environment should moisten out here once again. 4-6 seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Somewhere around bob or maybe closer to the pym coast could make out well with some decent ocean enhancement. The ocean giveth, and the ocean taketh away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Eh, I wouldn't worry too much about the NAM. It's good that it hasn't gone to an extreme either way, will await the Euro. Would like to see that hold relative serve without a major bounce one way or the other. NAM snows most of Saturday night too, OES. Yeah, even the NAM would give 2.5 in Boston and at least 3 IMBY with decent ratios and 4-7 SE Mass, so it looks good for Plymouth and Bristol county into RI and Ct regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 My biggest concern is if the system is weaker than it has been progged, then the precip shield on the north side could be more shredded rather than getting a nice frontogensis band. I guess we really won't know until we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ill flip a **** if boston gets under 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ill flip a **** if boston gets under 4 Pretty strange behavior considering the forecast has generally been 3-6" for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think some people have some very high expectations for this piss poor little system. I was hoping for 3 inches, might have to settle for 2. As I said earlier radar, wv looks marginal, fast movign and the 'Dacks, Catskills, Taconis and Berks are going to wring out some of that moisture. SNE coast will still do ok from ocean enhancement but I think the interior should be ready for an underperformer. I've had a good winter week and have set my expectations low so whatever falls I'm happy with but my very amateur opinion is that anything over 2" here is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 As I said earlier radar, wv looks marginal, fast movign and the 'Dacks, Catskills, Taconis and Berks are going to wring out some of that moisture. SNE coast will still do ok from ocean enhancement but I think the interior should be ready for an underperformer. I've had a good winter week and have set my expectations low so whatever falls I'm happy with but my very amateur opinion is that anything over 2" here is a bonus. The flow in the mid-levels is out of the southwest and more out of the east in the BL and NE at the sfc...the orographics of the Catskills/Berkshires should have little effect on what goes on east of them... The biggest reason for this system to underperform is if its thermal gradient is weaker because of a weaker system...and it allows the cold dry air from the northeast to eat away at the northern edge of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah I was hoping for 3", but if the GFS also cuts me back to .15" then 2" is probably about it. Pete might pull off some oro acrobatics LOL, but IMO the ALY forecast of 2-4" in their western Mass zone is about right. As I said earlier radar, wv looks marginal, fast movign and the 'Dacks, Catskills, Taconis and Berks are going to wring out some of that moisture. SNE coast will still do ok from ocean enhancement but I think the interior should be ready for an underperformer. I've had a good winter week and have set my expectations low so whatever falls I'm happy with but my very amateur opinion is that anything over 2" here is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The flow in the mid-levels is out of the southwest and more out of the east in the BL and NE at the sfc...the orographics of the Catskills/Berkshires should have little effect on what goes on east of them... The biggest reason for this system to underperform is if its thermal gradient is weaker because of a weaker system...and it allows the cold dry air from the northeast to eat away at the northern edge of the precip shield. You're really being a downer tonight. There's some issues, let's hope this breaks in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 15/4 imby. This system will be running into some very dry air which should be a warning sign. (for my area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You're really being a downer tonight. There's some issues, let's hope this breaks in our favor. No, just pointing out that this system has some things working against it...it was looking a tad better in earlier progs and now that we can see the ground truth, its a bit concerning. I'm still going with the general 3-6" for msot of the region, but it might have get cut back north of a BOS-ORH line...but we'll see. Down in your area over to the Cape is looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The flow in the mid-levels is out of the southwest and more out of the east in the BL and NE at the sfc...the orographics of the Catskills/Berkshires should have little effect on what goes on east of them... The biggest reason for this system to underperform is if its thermal gradient is weaker because of a weaker system...and it allows the cold dry air from the northeast to eat away at the northern edge of the precip shield. Thanks Will. I'm always trying to learn the how's and why's. Not the strongest looking system but I'll stay up for a few hours seeing how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You're really being a downer tonight. There's some issues, let's hope this breaks in our favor. Well, that burden can't always fall to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yep, but it's just what the doctor ordered to get them a nice 3-6 inch snowfall in places like Joe's, NYC, Cape Cod. etc. Any stronger system and they would have been doomed. 11/6 here now....virga alert for after midnight. 15/4 imby. This system will be running into some very dry air which should be a warning sign. (for my area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ill flip a **** if boston gets under 4 start flippin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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