CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z gfs is every so slightly cooler/drier than the 12z.....splitting hairs at this point though Yeah pretty much. Hopefully the nrn edge doesn't get eaten up to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 danbury 6 hfd 5.8 ginx 6.2 coldmiser 5.6 kev 5.7 bob 6.8 will 3.8 scott 4.5 ray 2.3 messenger 6 (taint or higher ratio's later 1/3 of storm) hubba dave 3.3 me (wakefield,ma 2.7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well I'm gone for the event anyways. Off to PVD tonight at a friends place, then s-shore tomorrow. Hopefully decent snows down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 4-8 in Albany's area is fine because they have a 7/9 threshold while BOX and OKX use a 6/8 in 12/24 hour periods. Also it's the average snowfall that really matters. 4-8 in an advisory area means they likely expect to be closer to the lower end thus falling short of warning criteria. Even if some place eeks out a spot 10 inch total, a 3-6 or 4-8 forecast will technically verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah pretty much. Hopefully the nrn edge doesn't get eaten up to much. GFS is awfully stingy. Keeps the 0.25" totals south of the CT/MA border by a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 danbury 6 hfd 5.8 ginx 6.2 coldmiser 5.6 kev 5.7 bob 6.8 will 3.8 scott 4.5 ray 2.3 messenger 6 (taint or higher ratio's later 1/3 of storm) hubba dave 3.3 me (wakefield,ma 2.7) Taking my 5.6 and heading to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Another beautiful run for sw ct, all snow great ratios and decent qpf, all systems go, 4-8 of dendritical deliciousness, the Euro now gives my location the most qpf of any model which is very reassuring, the agony and heartache is just about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS is awfully stingy. Keeps the 0.25" totals south of the CT/MA border by a hair. Yeah, I probably would scale back my numbers a tad, because it has some of my fears, but will see. I still think 3-5 around here, but maybe closer to the middle range. I'll be interested to see how it plays out. Kevin seems mad I did not have him above 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well I'm gone for the event anyways. Off to PVD tonight at a friends place, then s-shore tomorrow. Hopefully decent snows down there. Who is the guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, I probably would scale back my numbers a tad, because it has some of my fears, but will see. I still think 3-5 around here, but maybe closer to the middle range. I'll be interested to see how it plays out. Kevin seems mad I did not have him above 6". Not at all. I think my area falls into the 5-7 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, I probably would scale back my numbers a tad, because it has some of my fears, but will see. I still think 3-5 around here, but maybe closer to the middle range. I'll be interested to see how it plays out. Kevin seems mad I did not have him above 6". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8gjZRGUNBk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 SATURDAY... 20/12Z GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY FROM THE 20/00Z RUNS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. STILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. NONETHELESS HIGH PROBABILITY OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL SAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT... BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not at all. I think my area falls into the 5-7 inch range We'll have an idea later tonight I think. I'm worried a bit about how good the nrn edge is. I see both pros and cons. I guess my concern is having this not gets its act together until it gets near you house and points east and south. I do think there may be some mid level enhancement near I-90, but there aren't very good signals for that area right now. At least ratios will be good, so that is a plus. I don't think I would change too much based on the GFS for now. Hopefully the 00z run stays the same or ticks north a bit. If it goes south again, I might get 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We'll have an idea later tonight I think. I'm worried a bit about how good the nrn edge is. I see both pros and cons. I guess my concern is having this not gets its act together until it gets near you house and points east and south. I do think there may be some mid level enhancement near I-90, but there aren't very good signals for that area right now. At least ratios will be good, so that is a plus. I don't think I would change too much based on the GFS for now. Hopefully the 00z run stays the same or ticks north a bit. If it goes south again, I might get 2". This is one of the VERY FEW times I'm glad I'm south of the pike lol I hate that term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is one of the VERY FEW times I'm glad I'm south of the pike lol I hate that term Should be a decent one for you. Hopefully the 00z runs are just as good or better. I'll keep my numbers for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is one of the VERY FEW times I'm glad I'm south of the pike lol I hate that term :weenie: You invented the south of the pike winter term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Should be a decent one for you. Hopefully the 00z runs are just as good or better. I'll keep my numbers for now. I hope everydone does well. Every single poster has had a meltdown this year..some more than one..so we all need this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm going with 3-5" for northern Berks and GC along and above the Route 2 corridor with 4-6" for the central and southern Berks and GC within 15 miles of the Mass Pike. Fluff factor with this event will be fantastic and if we get even some minor banding, it would not all surprise me if someone along or south of the Pike in W MA walks away with 7" of fluff on 18:1 or 20:1 ratios. While I like these fluff snows, it will have no staying power against the looming torch on Monday. CAD could shelter the east slope from the snow eating southerly flow for awhile, but things will likely get ugly even there for a few hours before the FROPA. I don't think it'll eradicate the snow entirely, but it will do serious damage to it, especially west of the 2K cordillera. I may not have much more than an inch or two after the torch, if that. Hopefully, it won't be so bad, but it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Finally on 1/20 got the deck and yard/driveway ready for a snowstorm, nice feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Finally on 1/20 got the deck and yard/driveway ready for a snowstorm, nice feeling. Good luck Joe!!! Hope you get nailed. I knew if you lost that silly 'Spring' avatar you'd get off the schnide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thinking about leaving school in Salem to go home to Kingston to see some decent snow and take some good pics, good idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ryan;s boss on air has 4-8 statewide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The models have been about the same here... either side of the .2" line. So my expectations are around 2 to 3 inches and it's good to not be expecting a lot. We'll have an idea later tonight I think. I'm worried a bit about how good the nrn edge is. I see both pros and cons. I guess my concern is having this not gets its act together until it gets near you house and points east and south. I do think there may be some mid level enhancement near I-90, but there aren't very good signals for that area right now. At least ratios will be good, so that is a plus. I don't think I would change too much based on the GFS for now. Hopefully the 00z run stays the same or ticks north a bit. If it goes south again, I might get 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good luck Joe!!! Hope you get nailed. I knew if you lost that silly 'Spring' avatar you'd get off the schnide. Thanks Pete! ITs been a long haul and lots of ribbing of good nature back and forth, I am stoked for some firepit activities, sledding and being outside enjoying every single solitary flake. Going to try and hit the hay around 9 so I can walk up around 2 dont want to miss the first flakes........and enjoy it from there. Looks like a half foot of fluff coming your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ryan;s boss on air has 4-8 statewide This is one of the times when I think your optimism is warrented. I could see some sort of west-east oriented band of heavier snows (like a solid 25-35dbz composite radar band) somewhere in your neck of the woods. I think there will be a band or two further north of you but weaker; I bet you get into some good 18:1 ratio dendrites for a while. I'd put you at 6-7" there at 1,000ft. I think this is one of those ones where the lowest elevations near the northern extent of the appreciable QPF on models see dry air from the north continually try to bleed in... but anyone up at elevation won't have as much of an issue with it. I'm not expecting much more than some very tiny flurries that have evaporated to the point that they are barely noticable falling out of the sky. Lots of virga across CNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I hope everydone does well. Every single poster has had a meltdown this year..some more than one..so we all need this Yeah we'll see. I hope the snow shield is decent on the northern periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah we'll see. I hope the snow shield is decent on the northern periphery. I still think someone between Will and Ray on the N periphery of the heavier QPF will get into a weenie band and may be able to pull out a warning criteria snow. The slight northward tick in the models has happened today and we're beginning to see them pick up on slightly better lift too. The SREF ml frontogenesis maps are indicative of the potential for something SW to NE oriented over South-Central MA around 18z Saturday. This could very well extend into N CT too. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Man this precip is flying in here models will be way off with start times at least down this way, GL radar kind of broken and scattered, SE radar much more juiced than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thinking about leaving school in Salem to go home to Kingston to see some decent snow and take some good pics, good idea? yes good idea..i mean if it's not a inconvenience why not. .kingston could be on the northern extent of a very good snowfall while salem may get 2 or 3. kingston could score 5-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks Pete! ITs been a long haul and lots of ribbing of good nature back and forth, I am stoked for some firepit activities, sledding and being outside enjoying every single solitary flake. Going to try and hit the hay around 9 so I can walk up around 2 dont want to miss the first flakes........and enjoy it from there. Looks like a half foot of fluff coming your way. we like this L. Libations alot better lol love the going to bed early so you can wake up and catch the flakes falling. true dedication to snow. most others wouldn't match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.