N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice bump over Phil ya nearly 50% wonder what KPVD or KTAN is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd say, held serve. That's what good models do. If we taken into account it 's slightly dry bias we should have a good feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd say, held serve. That's what good models do. yeah i got a kick out of that. it bumped a bit down here but otherwise the numbers are almost exact. it's 18z temp at BOS is 22F...19F at ORH (down to 11F there by 00z LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 thanks for thislooks like western Ct and then Se mass could have *potential* areas of 5-8 and like 6-9 respectfully. does the qpf taper slightly from w ct into RI before picking up again over cape. do you have a qpf total for like PVD/ and or KTAN on today's euro phil I hope so euro had exactly .5 at BDR other models agree, with decent ratios hopefully a nice snowfall, but we are the forgotten corner when it comes to discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ya nearly 50% wonder what KPVD or KTAN is .42 and .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I hope so euro had exactly .5 at BDR other models agree, with decent ratios hopefully a nice snowfall, but we are the forgotten corner when it comes to discussion. :sun: :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 thanks v much. looks like solid 6 inch totals from danbury thru ktan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You're calling for a 1-2 inch forecast to "bust badly." Into what, the relatively adjacent 2-4 inch zone? Aside from the NAM, most models have trouble working .2" plus of QPF north of the MA/NH border... even with 18:1 ratios that's 3.6" tops, and that's if they get all the QPF forecast and the ratios are that generous for the duration. If an area gets 1.6" more than the max of what's been forecast, with snow, I don't know that I'd consider it much of a bust unless the forecast was for no snow at all. I think his 4-6 band is way too narrow...shows little knowledge of our climo. And yes...3-6 is dramatically different vs 2-4. Maybe I'm in the minority but I think if you go 2-4 and someone gets 5.5 it's a much bigger bust than going 3-6 and someone getting 2.4. Also, looking at it closely, Kevin will do better than 2-4....or we'll all pay...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 :sun: :sun: Dont rush it, not till monday........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think his 4-6 band is way too narrow...shows little knowledge of our climo. And yes...3-6 is dramatically different vs 2-4. Maybe I'm in the minority but I think if you go 2-4 and someone gets 5.5 it's a much bigger bust than going 3-6 and someone getting 2.4. JMHO. kevin approves with violence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wouldn't get so excited from KTAN south just yet, looks like the jackpot now, but It'll most likely trend north last minute and deliver some pretty high totals around the upper end of 495 and maybe bring sleet up into SE Mass. Just a though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah i got a kick out of that. it bumped a bit down here but otherwise the numbers are almost exact. it's 18z temp at BOS is 22F...19F at ORH (down to 11F there by 00z LOL) I think the one trend I did notice, that Scott brought up..was a bump up down your way. It looks like enough moisture is brought him to really help wring out the moisture there. The flow is progressive to the north, so when you look at the 850mb fields, there is good srly flow, and then all of the sudden it becomes more wrly over CNE. So frontogenesis should be good..especially down your way, but it makes me think there could be maybe another fronto band around here or to the north. In fact, on the SPC site, it has some decent frontogenesis and MPV or EPV..same thing for all intents and purposes. Those are a great product BTW..SPC SREFs. I also like the lingering cold and CAA at 950 with ne winds. Also might be a mini coastal front near the coastline so perhaps some lighter snows from time to time across se ma. I can see that happening. The only thing that I don't like, is a possible cutoff from say the 5-6" amounts to more 2-3" stuff. That might be nearby this area. The widespread 2-3..maybe 4" stuff will be just that...cover a wide area, but the meat of the good lift may just tickle this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 kevin approves with violence LOL>.i haven't seen you joke around on the board since like Halloween DT lived in CT and was a HFD met for several years and he still has no understanding of the SNE climo. I'll never forget a few yrs ago on Eastern when he told me Tolland was in the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think the one trend I did notice, that Scott brought up..was a bump up down your way. It looks like enough moisture is brought him to really help wring out the moisture there. The flow is progressive to the north, so when you look at the 850mb fields, there is good srly flow, and then all of the sudden it becomes more wrly over CNE. So frontogenesis should be good..especially down your way, but it makes me think there could be maybe another fronto band around here or to the north. In fact, on the SPC site, it has some decent frontogenesis and MPV or EPV..same thing for all intents and purposes. Those are a great product BTW..SPC SREFs. I also like the lingering cold and CAA at 950 with ne winds. Also might be a mini coastal front near the coastline so perhaps some lighter snows from time to time across se ma. I can see that happening. The only thing that I don't like, is a possible cutoff from say the 5-6" amounts to more 2-3" stuff. That might be nearby this area. The widespread 2-3..maybe 4" stuff will be just that...cover a wide area, but the meat of the good lift may just tickle this area. Somehow a band of higher totals is going to verify NW of us as it always does in these setups imo. We may be in a screwzone while a band sets up to our NW and if there is a north trend, maybe a sleet line somewhere in SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Powdery snow and 23 knot winds for Boston. What a great Saturday! FOUS61.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 okx just updated went with a wwa and 4-8 here I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Somehow a band of higher totals is going to verify NW of us as it always does in these setups imo. We may be in a screwzone while a band sets up to our NW and if there is a north trend, maybe a sleet line somewhere in SE Mass. The forcing is so weak though, that this band is not certain, it may be relatively weak. What I could see is a mini Essex county min like some guidance has, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think the one trend I did notice, that Scott brought up..was a bump up down your way. It looks like enough moisture is brought him to really help wring out the moisture there. The flow is progressive to the north, so when you look at the 850mb fields, there is good srly flow, and then all of the sudden it becomes more wrly over CNE. So frontogenesis should be good..especially down your way, but it makes me think there could be maybe another fronto band around here or to the north. In fact, on the SPC site, it has some decent frontogenesis and MPV or EPV..same thing for all intents and purposes. Those are a great product BTW..SPC SREFs. I also like the lingering cold and CAA at 950 with ne winds. Also might be a mini coastal front near the coastline so perhaps some lighter snows from time to time across se ma. I can see that happening. The only thing that I don't like, is a possible cutoff from say the 5-6" amounts to more 2-3" stuff. That might be nearby this area. The widespread 2-3..maybe 4" stuff will be just that...cover a wide area, but the meat of the good lift may just tickle this area. 18z NAM seems to be onto this idea too of a good max over SE areas. If we can stay cold enough this could push double digits around here somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think his 4-6 band is way too narrow...shows little knowledge of our climo. And yes...3-6 is dramatically different vs 2-4. Maybe I'm in the minority but I think if you go 2-4 and someone gets 5.5 it's a much bigger bust than going 3-6 and someone getting 2.4. Also, looking at it closely, Kevin will do better than 2-4....or we'll all pay...lol. Haven't we already paid by putting up with him so far this winter? Or, you know, in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think his 4-6 band is way too narrow...shows little knowledge of our climo. And yes...3-6 is dramatically different vs 2-4. Maybe I'm in the minority but I think if you go 2-4 and someone gets 5.5 it's a much bigger bust than going 3-6 and someone getting 2.4. Also, looking at it closely, Kevin will do better than 2-4....or we'll all pay...lol. Of course cause that's 1.5" above the range. 1.5" below the range would be like getting 0.5" out of a 2-4" forecast. That's a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think the one trend I did notice, that Scott brought up..was a bump up down your way. It looks like enough moisture is brought him to really help wring out the moisture there. The flow is progressive to the north, so when you look at the 850mb fields, there is good srly flow, and then all of the sudden it becomes more wrly over CNE. So frontogenesis should be good..especially down your way, but it makes me think there could be maybe another fronto band around here or to the north. In fact, on the SPC site, it has some decent frontogenesis and MPV or EPV..same thing for all intents and purposes. Those are a great product BTW..SPC SREFs. I also like the lingering cold and CAA at 950 with ne winds. Also might be a mini coastal front near the coastline so perhaps some lighter snows from time to time across se ma. I can see that happening. The only thing that I don't like, is a possible cutoff from say the 5-6" amounts to more 2-3" stuff. That might be nearby this area. The widespread 2-3..maybe 4" stuff will be just that...cover a wide area, but the meat of the good lift may just tickle this area. NCEP actually has a similar site...it's hard to find but i have it bookmarked...i'll find it and send it to you. it does seem like stuff starts to come together nicely after 17 or 18z through 21z +/-. you can see the 850 frontogenesis start to go to town over E MA at that point. so could be several hours of intensifying precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The forcing is so weak though, that this band is not certain, it may be relatively weak. What I could see is a mini Essex county min like some guidance has, but who knows. Yeah I could see maybe some dry air nosing down from maine lowering totals there. But I wouldn't be surprised if this thing bumps north tonight at 00z with some sleet taint up to KTAN as the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If we taken into account it 's slightly dry bias we should have a good feel lol you're now using the ECMWF and approaching it with a dry bias? That's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think this is going to be an overperformer(gasps) . I think the max lollis will be 8 inches..Maaaayybe someone weenies 9 That would be an over performer........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The forcing is so weak though, that this band is not certain, it may be relatively weak. What I could see is a mini Essex county min like some guidance has, but who knows. mini essex county min or max? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Of course cause that's 1.5" above the range. 1.5" below the range would be like getting 0.5" out of a 2-4" forecast. That's a bust. Tell that to the guy who's commute is much worse busting 1.5 low vs high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That would be an over performer........ It's no use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 mini essex county min or max? Min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z gfs is every so slightly cooler/drier than the 12z.....splitting hairs at this point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like the GFS ticked south. I think if anything..if I were to have an area that I'm unsure of..it's the I-90 region. I could see 3-4" here, if this doesn't get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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