weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FOUS for BOS shows more qpf on the 18Z run. 0.46 to be exact vs about 0.10 less on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm surprised that BOX only issued an advisory, stating the 4"-8" possibility. I though 6" was grounds for the warning/ watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Actually, I think that map looks fairly reasonable. Not sure I'd cite the SREF's as a reasoning for a bust in that area... unless we're looking at different SREF's. You really think north of the Pike is that low? I don't see it. It always fools people. I think you and I are good for 3-6 and have been sticking to that for days. Not so different than DT but north of us is a world of difference. SREFs showed much more in snow probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z nam would again suggest some sleet taint out here tomorrow afternoon - so strange with the 18z runs...3 days in a row now it's been that way i believe (milder than the 00z/12z runs) It's going to be close for us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So is this storm showing the same track as last nights with a more Southeastern trajecotry? I know at times these storms trend to the North late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM is actually a little slower and more nw by a hair on MSLP. It hangs a little more moisture back, which may account for Jerry's observation in FOUS. It's probably going to have a good exit band over se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like NAM wants to have some icy conds in the wee hours Monday before the lower levels get higher. Could be dicey wiht zl/-zr until after daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Always great when someone's first post that I've seen is a triple bunner!!! :weenie: Well done! Good call...well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ray 3.8" But someone will get screwed between me and Ray I think. If there is another band to the north..it could be between myself and Ray. I agee...my final is going to be 2-5", down from the 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm surprised that BOX only issued an advisory, stating the 4"-8" possibility. I though 6" was grounds for the warning/ watch. You gotta have widespread 6"< over the entire county. Sounds like they are more leaning 3-6" with the chance of some spot 8" amounts. Definitely looks like a solid Advisory event. Albany issues Advisories all the time for 4-8" in their Berkshire and Litchfield zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think this is going to be an overperformer(gasps) . I think the max lollis will be 8 inches..Maaaayybe someone weenies 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 are the box or the upton snow maps out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 rolled out the obs thread. enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's going to be close for us..... i certainly wouldn't be surprised to see some sleet / rain drops mix in late in the event but i don't think it'll make a whole world of difference... anywhere in that 3 to 5/6 range is safe. "a lot" of qpf falls with a plenty cold column. the nam and some of the srefs have had that mild tongue sneak in to the area off and on all along...even that run though is very marginal in terms of actual "warmth" its like .5 to 1C aloft for a short time and comes just after the best lift has moved through. a lot of other products keep it all snow. another thing the NAM does is have the NE wind howl for a time late in the day. would be briefly sustained like 25 to 30 knots G 40 knots toward evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 4-8" here, maybe some lolli's more if it doesn't bump any further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He won't be too pleased..but will say"my forecast of 5-15 for Jan looks good" I never expected more than about 4" or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think this is going to be an overperformer(gasps) . I think the max lollis will be 8 inches..Maaaayybe someone weenies 9 It just looks like your general 3-6" deal with some spots maybe near Bob and over to PYM getting 7-8". Still could be a sharp cutoff near Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 are the modeled paramaters for the weenie band somewhere N of the pike still found on today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 are the modeled paramaters for the weenie band somewhere N of the pike still found on today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You really think north of the Pike is that low? I don't see it. It always fools people. I think you and I are good for 3-6 and have been sticking to that for days. Not so different than DT but north of us is a world of difference. SREFs showed much more in snow probs. You're calling for a 1-2 inch forecast to "bust badly." Into what, the relatively adjacent 2-4 inch zone? Aside from the NAM, most models have trouble working .2" plus of QPF north of the MA/NH border... even with 18:1 ratios that's 3.6" tops, and that's if they get all the QPF forecast and the ratios are that generous for the duration. If an area gets 1.6" more than the max of what's been forecast, with snow, I don't know that I'd consider it much of a bust unless the forecast was for no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 are the modeled paramaters for the weenie band somewhere N of the pike still found on today's runs Not really...it's possible it may only be run of those "exit stage right" bands, like I mentioned earlier. There still seems to be evidence of maybe something near I-90 or just north, but tough to really tell. Just kind of going by 850 and 700 fields, but it is not a strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i knew you would to that....but will was mentioning it and i will just assume they are still there it's like i don't think i've ever seen a non CF enhancment weenie band in the wakefield, ma area.....they seem to like to reside about 20-40 miles to the north or not really exist at all. but this could just be a figment of my imagination. like if the storm bumped 40 miles north i bet there would be a weenie band in SNH out thru MPM but if i doesn't i don't really expect one in my area or ray's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You gotta have widespread 6"< over the entire county. Sounds like they are more leaning 3-6" with the chance of some spot 8" amounts. Definitely looks like a solid Advisory event. Albany issues Advisories all the time for 4-8" in their Berkshire and Litchfield zones. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i certainly wouldn't be surprised to see some sleet / rain drops mix in late in the event but i don't think it'll make a whole world of difference... anywhere in that 3 to 5/6 range is safe. "a lot" of qpf falls with a plenty cold column. the nam and some of the srefs have had that mild tongue sneak in to the area off and on all along...even that run though is very marginal in terms of actual "warmth" its like .5 to 1C aloft for a short time and comes just after the best lift has moved through. a lot of other products keep it all snow. another thing the NAM does is have the NE wind howl for a time late in the day. would be briefly sustained like 25 to 30 knots G 40 knots toward evening. That's pretty awesome really...back to back snow events would be a major victory in this winter before next weeks....I can't even say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 euro qpf yesterday 12z / today 12z orh: .29 / .28 bos: .26 / .28 hya: .33 / .48 bdl: .35 / .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 for those asking, I posted (in the previous Obs thread) an animated GIF of last night's (Jan 19) meso-low with clear rotation as it moves off PYM: Cool snowfall meso-low apparent on radar Jan 19 - Jan 20 overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Makes sense. Yeah and honestly it could probably go either way... as 6" in a highly populated area is a much bigger deal than Pete's fields getting 6" of fluff in the Berkshires. It wouldn't surprise me if they upgraded to some marginal warnings in SE MA and RI. Maybe even the northern CT zones if they really want to go there. More than likely it depends on the forecaster who is on at the time, lol... and how they want to handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 euro qpf yesterday 12z / today 12z orh: .29 / .28 bos: .26 / .28 hya: .33 / .48 bdl: .35 / .35 I'd say, held serve. That's what good models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 euro qpf yesterday 12z / today 12z orh: .29 / .28 bos: .26 / .28 hya: .33 / .48 bdl: .35 / .35 thanks for thislooks like western Ct and then Se mass could have *potential* areas of 5-8 and like 6-9 respectfully. does the qpf taper slightly from w ct into RI before picking up again over cape. do you have a qpf total for like PVD/ and or KTAN on today's euro phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd say, held serve. That's what good models do. Nice bump over Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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