HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I feel decent for 3-5"...maybe 6" if I get in one of those bands on the northern edge of the system. I hope it waits until like 6-7am to start and holds on until at least 3-4pm...but they always start earlier and end earlier as LL said.The BOX map is pretty bullish. I think minimum I would get is 3" and maximum is 6"...I honestly would be surprised it my total came in outside of that range. I would be very happy with 4"... probably will get 3 unless the ratios are very high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i can put them together if you'd like. i'll post it later. Great, thanks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking at great lakes radar, pretty impressive, I would guess this snow will move in prior to what models show and leave quicker too, (outside eastern areas) warm air advection waits for no man. That seems to happen a lot in my opinion. Been noticing that for years. Not all the time, because sometimes there is a dry airmass that needs to get saturated. But the events where it keeps snowing beyond what was forecast seem rare. Hope you get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Direction of the storm, combined with Chicago, IL getting 4-8" makes me put faith in the NAM QPF totals for a good portion of SNE, especially the Cape and Islands as well as interior SE New England. Atlantic inflow will not be particularly strong given rather weak surface low and attendant 500mb shortwave energy, but given that Chicago is in line for 4-8" without any Ocean inflow, my guess is 6-12" is possible for someone in the SE regions of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Direction of the storm, combined with Chicago, IL getting 4-8" makes me put faith in the NAM QPF totals for a good portion of SNE, especially the Cape and Islands as well as interior SE New England. Atlantic inflow will not be particularly strong given rather weak surface low and attendant 500mb shortwave energy, but given that Chicago is in line for 4-8" without any Ocean inflow, my guess is 6-12" is possible for someone in the SE regions of New England. Glad you are posting again. 12" would shock me, but 8" would not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 BTW from earlier today: How does this make sense to anyone? This is exactly why I rarely show non-convective NWS watches and warnings. A bit OT... This is why I read these forums, the nws discussions, and blogs....to be informed...plus I love extreme weather and snow! Any hope in snow I like to know in advance and then get my dreams crushed most times, finding my way here has been pretty helpful to see the dynamics of forecasting. I read daily during the winter and time from time during extreme weather events....this forum while even on the non events is entertainment! It was the NWS who had pointed out all the reasons the October stuff WOULDN'T or COULDN'T happen....and it did. Which turns out was a bit irresponsible in way. However, the weather as a whole is your damned if you do or don't...again why reading these forums makes you see why the job is soo difficult. I love the banter, reminds me of work, and love that when I look here I can read everyones from Kevin's ideas and yours and meet in the middle.... Plus given your our local met its nice to see you working in behind the scenes! Thanks to all contributers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z GFS and NAM show a good 12hr snowfall for SE New England tomorrow. Not 5-8hrs, I mean maybe of the decent snows, but overall light snow and heavy snows combined 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DT Not too bad. I'd hedge with a 4-8" region around and 20 miles north of Mass Pike east of ORH to the coast to allow for banding and excellent ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z nam looks very similar to 12z...maybe a little drier in jackpot areas. 3-6" SF with 6-7" in good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DT Not too bad. I'd hedge with a 4-8" region around and 20 miles north of Mass Pike east of ORH to the coast to allow for banding and excellent ratios... He's going to bust badly in northern MA near the NH border. Latest SREFS have 4+ snow probs pretty high up to the Pike from 495 eastward and inclusive of all of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He's going to bust badly in northern MA near the NH border. Latest SREFS have 4+ snow probs pretty high up to the Pike from 495 eastward and inclusive of all of SE MA. Agree. SREFs still have no 8"+ probs so I think over 6 will be a stretch but 4 looks like a decent bet most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam does look a little drier...more in line with the gfs. If I was putting out a forecast I would have a region wide 3-5" S of the pike...no need to put out a 6" for some lucky area. 2-4" to the NH border N of pike...and C-2" up to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He's going to bust badly in northern MA near the NH border. Latest SREFS have 4+ snow probs pretty high up to the Pike from 495 eastward and inclusive of all of SE MA. Where do you get the srefs this early? The ewall page still has yesterdays 15z run. That's good to hear though. The 9z run barely had 4+ probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam cut back... Still 0.5 for ri and se ma. Definite shift toward other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Where do you get the srefs this early? The ewall page still has yesterdays 15z run. That's good to hear though. The 9z run barely had 4+ probs. you have to click on the sref link up on top. it has some good 4" probs now in CT/RI/SE MA...best yet (which makes sense just because we are getting so close now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Direction of the storm, combined with Chicago, IL getting 4-8" makes me put faith in the NAM QPF totals for a good portion of SNE, especially the Cape and Islands as well as interior SE New England. Atlantic inflow will not be particularly strong given rather weak surface low and attendant 500mb shortwave energy, but given that Chicago is in line for 4-8" without any Ocean inflow, my guess is 6-12" is possible for someone in the SE regions of New England. Always great when someone's first post that I've seen is a triple bunner!!! :weenie: Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He's going to bust badly in northern MA near the NH border. Latest SREFS have 4+ snow probs pretty high up to the Pike from 495 eastward and inclusive of all of SE MA. Agree. Banding + Excellent Ratios + Tick North ≠ 1-2" north of Pike. I'd expand a 4-8" area 20 miles north of Pike east of ORH. I'm guessing the map tailors to the Mid-Atlantic crowd, but doesn't take into account meso-scale features in SNE that have been important this week... over-performance is the theme of the week, and I anticipate this event will follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Steve I can't do this right now but maybe you can? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/ You should be able to get the loop to load there. If you can't save it directly, maybe download a trial of techsmits screen capture software where you can run the loop and make an avi? can you do? http://www.techsmith.com/camtasia.html that radar shows me pretty clearly that essex, ma over to the more "interior" parts of gloucester , ma (assuming slightly cooler temps then by the water) scored 4 or so inches as well. IMO that isn't much of a stretch if you look at the duration of the snows and green echos over the area. no question IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Where do you get the srefs this early? The ewall page still has yesterdays 15z run. That's good to hear though. The 9z run barely had 4+ probs. e-wall had today's 15z run 12 minutes ago for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Agree. Banding + Excellent Ratios + Tick North ≠ 1-2" north of Pike. I'd expand a 4-8" area 20 miles north of Pike east of ORH. I'm guessing the map tailors to the Mid-Atlantic crowd, but doesn't take into account meso-scale features in SNE that have been important this week... over-performance is the theme of the week, and I anticipate this event will follow suit. I'd be careful about this one being an over performer. A lot of the classic overperforming signs aren't there. I do think areas north of the pike do ok but I wouldnt call that overperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 you have to click on the sref link up on top. it has some good 4" probs now in CT/RI/SE MA...best yet (which makes sense just because we are getting so close now) LOL...I guess clicking on it wasn't enough and I just had to press "F5"...lol. Anyway, here they are: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z nam would again suggest some sleet taint out here tomorrow afternoon - so strange with the 18z runs...3 days in a row now it's been that way i believe (milder than the 00z/12z runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 e-wall had today's 15z run 12 minutes ago for me. My bad...I just had to refresh the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A bit OT... This is why I read these forums, the nws discussions, and blogs....to be informed...plus I love extreme weather and snow! Any hope in snow I like to know in advance and then get my dreams crushed most times, finding my way here has been pretty helpful to see the dynamics of forecasting. I read daily during the winter and time from time during extreme weather events....this forum while even on the non events is entertainment! It was the NWS who had pointed out all the reasons the October stuff WOULDN'T or COULDN'T happen....and it did. Which turns out was a bit irresponsible in way. However, the weather as a whole is your damned if you do or don't...again why reading these forums makes you see why the job is soo difficult. I love the banter, reminds me of work, and love that when I look here I can read everyones from Kevin's ideas and yours and meet in the middle.... Plus given your our local met its nice to see you working in behind the scenes! Thanks to all contributers! i hate when they don't trust the models showing them something EVEN 36-48 hours out! when there ONLY objection is climatology...bc it was established an early season arctic front had moved thru and temps for the interior were plenty cold for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 SREFS have a nice 50% dot for 4+ just over Bob. Taunton FTW over the past few days...10" possible between last night and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 looks like N of the pike is hoping for the weenie band to give 4-8 inches other wise 2-4 seems likely by models? from pike N Ct to Ri to Se mass (bristol cty) seems a lock for 4-6 + IMO and i would think SREF's 4 inch prob would increase in that area over next 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A bit OT... This is why I read these forums, the nws discussions, and blogs....to be informed...plus I love extreme weather and snow! Any hope in snow I like to know in advance and then get my dreams crushed most times, finding my way here has been pretty helpful to see the dynamics of forecasting. I read daily during the winter and time from time during extreme weather events....this forum while even on the non events is entertainment! It was the NWS who had pointed out all the reasons the October stuff WOULDN'T or COULDN'T happen....and it did. Which turns out was a bit irresponsible in way. However, the weather as a whole is your damned if you do or don't...again why reading these forums makes you see why the job is soo difficult. I love the banter, reminds me of work, and love that when I look here I can read everyones from Kevin's ideas and yours and meet in the middle.... Plus given your our local met its nice to see you working in behind the scenes! Thanks to all contributers! Awesome post and goes to show lots of folks like this format in our subforum SNE rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He's going to bust badly in northern MA near the NH border. Latest SREFS have 4+ snow probs pretty high up to the Pike from 495 eastward and inclusive of all of SE MA. Actually, I think that map looks fairly reasonable. Not sure I'd cite the SREF's as a reasoning for a bust in that area... unless we're looking at different SREF's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd be careful about this one being an over performer. A lot of the classic overperforming signs aren't there. I do think areas north of the pike do ok but I wouldnt call that overperforming. I hear ya that we may not have the same dynamic forcing we saw yesterday... but when performance is 1-2" per DT's forecast, over-performance is a good bet north of turnpike. semantics really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 any thoughts for the north shore of mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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